Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 Senate’ Category

Excerpt From Our New Book, Trumped: Polling in the 2016 Election and What It Means Going Forward

Examining the implications for public opinion surveys beyond the horse race

  Dear Readers: Our new book on 2016’s remarkable election, Trumped, is now available. Trumped features some of the nation’s sharpest political reporters and analysts breaking down an election that truly broke all the rules. The following is taken from Chapter 10 of the book, authored by Ariel Edwards-Levy and Natalie Jackson of Huffington Post, […]

Rooting for Failure

Democrats use a familiar playbook in the Trump era

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It’s been nearly a week since the Republican plan to dramatically alter the Affordable Care Act died without a vote in the House of Representatives. It’s 84 weeks until the next national election, the 2018 midterm. So saying anything with confidence about how, if at all, the GOP’s failure to pass its American Health Care […]

How Midterms Do (and Do Not) Differ From Presidential Elections

What recent history tells us about the likely size and makeup of next year’s electorate

, UVA Center for Politics

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball is taking off next week for the University of Virginia’s spring recess. We’ll be back on Thursday, March 16. — The Editors With politicos everywhere turning their eyes to the still-distant 2018 midterm election, we thought it would be useful to review some of the basic differences and similarities between […]

2018’s Initial Senate Ratings

Democrats start on defense but national environment will be key

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

At first blush, one might think that the Democrats have a decent chance of taking control of the Senate in the 2018 midterm. After all, midterms frequently break against the president’s party, which has lost an average of four seats in the 26 midterms conducted in the era of popular Senate elections (starting with the […]

An Inexperienced Congress and Cabinet

Highlights from our friend Bruce Mehlman’s latest presentation

Dear Readers: Several times a year, Bruce Mehlman releases a fascinating PowerPoint presentation filled with interesting nuggets about American politics and government. Mehlman, a Republican lobbyist with the bipartisan firm Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas, is a University of Virginia Law School graduate and friend of the Crystal Ball. Because we get so much out […]

2017: At the Dawn of the Age of Trump

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

It’s already clear that the very strange political year of 2016 is bleeding over into the New Year. How could it be otherwise? President-elect Donald Trump, loved and hated by about equal numbers of Americans, continues to ignore or break with convention in a wide variety of areas. Just as the normal rules didn’t apply […]

2018 Senate: The Democrats Are Very Exposed

But potentially counteracting forces -- partisan polarization & the negative midterm effect on the president’s party -- complicate the midterm picture

, UVA Center for Politics

A potential silver lining for Democrats is that they head into the 2018 midterm as the party that does not hold the White House, and the “out” party typically makes gains down the ballot in midterms. But it will be difficult for Democrats to make Senate gains in 2018: Despite being in the minority, they […]