Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 Senate’ Category

Senate 2018: Republicans Still Have Plenty of Targets

And Democrats need all the breaks to win a majority

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republicans have better than 50-50 odds to hold control of the U.S. Senate even in the event of a Democratic wave in November. — The reason is the map: Including the two independents who caucus with them, the Democrats are defending 26 of the 34 seats being contested this […]

Mixed Signals: Analyzing Elections Since Trump Won the Presidency

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — In 2013 elections, Democratic candidates ran behind Barack Obama’s 2012 two-party vote percentage by an average of 5.9 percentage points. A great Republican cycle in 2014 followed. In elections since December 2016, Republican candidates have run an average of 2.6 points behind Donald Trump’s 2016 two-party vote share, a […]

For New Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith, a Lesser Form of Incumbency

Appointed senators have worse electoral records than elected ones in both primaries and general elections

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Tuesday, now-former Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) officially resigned from the U.S. Senate following allegations of inappropriate behavior toward women. As we discussed in our last newsletter for 2017, Franken’s resignation means that Minnesota will hold a special election for Senate this coming November, which will take place at the same time as the regular […]

The Minnesota Twins: A Complete History of Double-Barrel Senate Elections

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Crystal Ball will be away next week. We’ll be back on Thursday, Jan. 4. We wish you and your family Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. — The Editors Sen. Al Franken’s (D) impending resignation due to sexual harassment allegations will create a vacancy in Minnesota’s Class II Senate seat, precipitating a special election in […]

Blue Stars Fell on Alabama

Jones win another confirmation of Democratic momentum, even taking Moore’s horrible candidacy into account

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Prior to the Alabama special Senate election on Tuesday night, there was an ongoing discussion in the media about whether the Republicans would lose either way in Alabama. But as bad as it would have been for Republicans to have had Roy Moore (R) in their Senate caucus, losing this seat is, in our view, […]

Franken Out? How We’d Rate a Minnesota Senate Special

Plus two House ratings changes

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

As of Wednesday night, it appeared as though Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) was poised to announce his resignation from the Senate on Thursday morning. Franken has faced several credible accusations of groping women and making unwanted sexual advances, and on Wednesday, the dam finally broke and a slew of his Democratic Senate colleagues began asking […]

Alabama Senate: Closing Time

As the race draws to a close, we look at Roy Moore’s advantages — and Doug Jones’ narrow path to victory

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

This coming Tuesday, Alabamians will go to the polls to decide their next U.S. senator in a rare December special election. While the Yellowhammer State is heavily Republican — President Donald Trump carried it by 28 percentage points in 2016 — the Senate contest is a Toss-up. The candidacy of the Republican nominee, former Alabama […]

Can Twitter Predict Elections?

One firm says yes, and they say the tweets point to a Jones win in Alabama

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In the aftermath of the 2016 election, one couldn’t be blamed for looking beyond polls for indicators about who might be favored in difficult-to-predict elections. That’s not necessarily to supplant polling, which we still see as the best way to measure an electorate and its intentions, but rather to augment it. Additional sources may be […]

Alabama Senate: It’s a Toss-Up

Post-Thanksgiving polls suggest Roy Moore is rebounding

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With less than two weeks to go until the Alabama Senate runoff, we’re pulling back our Leans Democratic rating in the race and going to Toss-up. We just don’t feel comfortable making anyone a favorite at this point. The race is as stern a test of tribal partisanship as one will find, with very Republican […]

Alabama Senate: Jones Now Narrowly Favored

The consequences of the awful allegations against Roy Moore; plus, stirrings of an upset in Tennessee?

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s note: The Crystal Ball will not be publishing next week. We wish our readers a Happy Thanksgiving. It’s amazing to write, and there’s time for our outlook to change, but here goes: A Democrat is now a narrow favorite to win a Senate special election in Alabama. We’re changing our rating of the Dec. […]

Watch the 2017 American Democracy Conference

The Center for Politics’ 19th annual confab looks ahead to 2018 and 2020 while looking back on Trump’s first year

On Nov. 16, the University of Virginia Center for Politics hosts the 19th annual American Democracy Conference in Charlottesville, VA. The conference features leading journalists and political experts discussing the upcoming 2018 midterm election cycle, the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency, and early thoughts on the 2020 presidential election. The conference is taking place […]

Democratic Domination in the Old Dominion

Danger signs abound for the GOP, with a few caveats

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s note: This piece is based on unofficial 2017 election returns. Tuesday represented the best non-presidential election night Democrats have had since 2006. They swept the statewide ticket in Virginia for the second election in a row, and they picked up the New Jersey governorship. They also won a crucial, majority-making state Senate election in […]

Primary Colors in Red

What are the prospects of a GOP purge? And could the president face his own troubles?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A Trump-Bannon move against Republican incumbents would not be unprecedented, but having widespread success would be… If President Trump actively campaigned against incumbents of his own party in primaries next year, it would be an unusual political occurrence. But it would not be without precedent. In fact, he wouldn’t even be the first ideologically flexible, […]

The Republican Senate Edge

A look at all three classes shows the difficulties for Democrats in winning a majority in a polarized era

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The U.S. Senate is a curious, unique legislative body for a lot of reasons. It has arcane rules, such as the filibuster, which limits the passage of most legislative items unless 60 members vote yes. Representation in the Senate is not based on population; instead, each state gets two and only two senators, meaning that […]

“This Is the House That Jack Built” Premieres

New documentary examines new and little-known stories about JFK

On Wednesday evening, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations hosted the premiere of their new documentary, This is the House that Jack Built, at the Library of Virginia in Richmond. Check your local listings for the documentary, which will begin airing on public television in mid-October. Directed by Paul Tait […]