Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 Senate’ Category

Mad as Hell: How Anger Diminishes Trust in Government

With politics increasingly defined by feelings of anger toward the opposing party, trust in government is bound to decline unless something changes drastically

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Over the past 60 years, trust in government has declined precipitously. Whereas high levels of trust in the national government were typical during the Eisenhower Administration, by 2016 only a fifth of Americans said they trusted the government “always” or “most of the time.” — Using a survey experiment […]

Ratings Changes: Senate, Governor, House

Both parties generally avoided bad choices in Tuesday’s primaries

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republican primary voters avoided a self-inflicted wound in West Virginia when disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship (R) finished third in the GOP Senate primary. — Much else went as expected Tuesday night. — Five ratings changes this week affect races for Senate, governor, and House, but most importantly broaden […]

Ohio’s Primary: The Heart of It All

The Buckeye State’s bellwether status may be fading, but a wild May and November to come reflect some major national trends

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The fissures emerging in both parties are evident in Ohio as the state holds its primary next week on May 8. — The likeliest matchup in the state’s open-seat gubernatorial race is a rematch of 2010’s battle for state attorney general, as former AG Richard Cordray (D)[1] and current […]

California Dreamin’: Carving the Golden State Into Thirds

Examining the hypothetical political impact of dividing California into three states

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The “Cal 3” initiative is the latest in a long line of proposals to divide California into multiple states. This plan aims to carve up the Golden State into three new states. — While the proposal has little chance of success, hypothetically the fragmentation of California would have notable […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Mirror images of vulnerability; two statewide Democrats get upgrades; electoral consequences from #MeToo

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The partisan structure of the races for governorships and Senate seats are now exact mirror opposites. — Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) get ratings upgrades. — Rep. Elizabeth Esty’s (D, CT-5) retirement gives Republicans an upset opportunity and is another example of how #MeToo is […]

Donald Trump’s Short Congressional Coattails

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Although Donald Trump is remaking the Republican Party in his image, he had among the shortest coattails of any presidential winner going back to Dwight Eisenhower. In 2016, Trump ran ahead of just 24 of 241 Republican House winners and only five of 22 Republican Senate winners. — While […]

The Low Success Rate of Independent and Third-Party Candidates in Senate Elections

The long odds against Craig O’Dear in Missouri

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Missouri independent candidate Craig O’Dear is running for U.S. Senate in 2018 but faces long odds of winning. — Independent and third-party candidates tend to do poorly in most partisan elections, but they have a particularly poor track record in Senate contests. Only 11 candidates in 14 elections have […]

Senate 2018: Republicans Still Have Plenty of Targets

And Democrats need all the breaks to win a majority

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republicans have better than 50-50 odds to hold control of the U.S. Senate even in the event of a Democratic wave in November. — The reason is the map: Including the two independents who caucus with them, the Democrats are defending 26 of the 34 seats being contested this […]

Mixed Signals: Analyzing Elections Since Trump Won the Presidency

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — In 2013 elections, Democratic candidates ran behind Barack Obama’s 2012 two-party vote percentage by an average of 5.9 percentage points. A great Republican cycle in 2014 followed. In elections since December 2016, Republican candidates have run an average of 2.6 points behind Donald Trump’s 2016 two-party vote share, a […]

For New Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith, a Lesser Form of Incumbency

Appointed senators have worse electoral records than elected ones in both primaries and general elections

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Tuesday, now-former Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) officially resigned from the U.S. Senate following allegations of inappropriate behavior toward women. As we discussed in our last newsletter for 2017, Franken’s resignation means that Minnesota will hold a special election for Senate this coming November, which will take place at the same time as the regular […]

The Minnesota Twins: A Complete History of Double-Barrel Senate Elections

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Crystal Ball will be away next week. We’ll be back on Thursday, Jan. 4. We wish you and your family Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. — The Editors Sen. Al Franken’s (D) impending resignation due to sexual harassment allegations will create a vacancy in Minnesota’s Class II Senate seat, precipitating a special election in […]

Blue Stars Fell on Alabama

Jones win another confirmation of Democratic momentum, even taking Moore’s horrible candidacy into account

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Prior to the Alabama special Senate election on Tuesday night, there was an ongoing discussion in the media about whether the Republicans would lose either way in Alabama. But as bad as it would have been for Republicans to have had Roy Moore (R) in their Senate caucus, losing this seat is, in our view, […]

Franken Out? How We’d Rate a Minnesota Senate Special

Plus two House ratings changes

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

As of Wednesday night, it appeared as though Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) was poised to announce his resignation from the Senate on Thursday morning. Franken has faced several credible accusations of groping women and making unwanted sexual advances, and on Wednesday, the dam finally broke and a slew of his Democratic Senate colleagues began asking […]

Alabama Senate: Closing Time

As the race draws to a close, we look at Roy Moore’s advantages — and Doug Jones’ narrow path to victory

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

This coming Tuesday, Alabamians will go to the polls to decide their next U.S. senator in a rare December special election. While the Yellowhammer State is heavily Republican — President Donald Trump carried it by 28 percentage points in 2016 — the Senate contest is a Toss-up. The candidacy of the Republican nominee, former Alabama […]

Can Twitter Predict Elections?

One firm says yes, and they say the tweets point to a Jones win in Alabama

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In the aftermath of the 2016 election, one couldn’t be blamed for looking beyond polls for indicators about who might be favored in difficult-to-predict elections. That’s not necessarily to supplant polling, which we still see as the best way to measure an electorate and its intentions, but rather to augment it. Additional sources may be […]