Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 Senate’ Category

Registering by Party: Where the Democrats and Republicans Are Ahead

, Senior Columnist

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In […]

The Uncertain Political Ramifications of Justice Kennedy’s Exit

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball will be off for the Fourth of July. We’ll be back on Thursday, July 12. An already turbulent national political environment was rocked by another major development Wednesday afternoon: Justice Anthony Kennedy, the closest thing there is to a swing vote on the Supreme Court, decided to retire. President Donald […]

Never Say Die Senate Candidates: Don Blankenship Lost His Primary but Plans to Run in November Anyway

If he does, the former coal magnate will be just the latest in a long line of Senate primary losers to run in a general election

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Although he lost in West Virginia’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Don Blankenship (R) is actively seeking to run in the general election as the Constitution Party’s nominee. His attempt to run in November will likely involve a legal challenge to “sore loser” election rules that prevent a losing […]

Senate 2018: Two Rust Belt Ratings Move in the Democrats’ Direction

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin look more and more like Republican reaches

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Crystal Ball has new ratings in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin U.S. Senate contests, both in Democrats’ direction. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey’s (D) reelection bid moves from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic, while in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) race goes from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. — […]

What Happened in the June 12 Primary

Maine experiments with ranked-choice voting, the Virginia GOP backs Stewart for Senate, and Sanford loses renomination in South Carolina

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: — Maine became the first state in modern U.S. history to use ranked-choice voting (also known as instant-runoff voting) in a statewide election. But this was not the first time that a state used a form of ranked voting or preferential voting. In the early 1900s, a number of states […]

Virginia’s Busiest Federal Primary Day in Modern History

The main races to watch on June 12 are the Republican contest for U.S. Senate and the Democrats’ six-way race in VA-10

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — With nine contested U.S. House primaries and one U.S. Senate primary, June 12 will be the busiest federal primary day in Virginia’s modern history, surpassing the seven total contests held in 2012 (one Senate, six House). — In the Republican primary for Senate, Prince William County Board of Supervisors […]

A Post-Memorial Day Status Report

Where things stand in the battles for Congress and the governorships

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE — Both Democrats and Republicans have about equal odds of winning the House majority. — Republicans remain clearly favored in the battle for Senate control. — Democrats should start 2019 with at least a few more net governorships than they hold now. Checking in on 2018’s big picture In a […]

Mad as Hell: How Anger Diminishes Trust in Government

With politics increasingly defined by feelings of anger toward the opposing party, trust in government is bound to decline unless something changes drastically

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Over the past 60 years, trust in government has declined precipitously. Whereas high levels of trust in the national government were typical during the Eisenhower Administration, by 2016 only a fifth of Americans said they trusted the government “always” or “most of the time.” — Using a survey experiment […]

Ratings Changes: Senate, Governor, House

Both parties generally avoided bad choices in Tuesday’s primaries

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republican primary voters avoided a self-inflicted wound in West Virginia when disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship (R) finished third in the GOP Senate primary. — Much else went as expected Tuesday night. — Five ratings changes this week affect races for Senate, governor, and House, but most importantly broaden […]

Ohio’s Primary: The Heart of It All

The Buckeye State’s bellwether status may be fading, but a wild May and November to come reflect some major national trends

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The fissures emerging in both parties are evident in Ohio as the state holds its primary next week on May 8. — The likeliest matchup in the state’s open-seat gubernatorial race is a rematch of 2010’s battle for state attorney general, as former AG Richard Cordray (D)[1] and current […]

California Dreamin’: Carving the Golden State Into Thirds

Examining the hypothetical political impact of dividing California into three states

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The “Cal 3” initiative is the latest in a long line of proposals to divide California into multiple states. This plan aims to carve up the Golden State into three new states. — While the proposal has little chance of success, hypothetically the fragmentation of California would have notable […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Mirror images of vulnerability; two statewide Democrats get upgrades; electoral consequences from #MeToo

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The partisan structure of the races for governorships and Senate seats are now exact mirror opposites. — Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) get ratings upgrades. — Rep. Elizabeth Esty’s (D, CT-5) retirement gives Republicans an upset opportunity and is another example of how #MeToo is […]

Donald Trump’s Short Congressional Coattails

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Although Donald Trump is remaking the Republican Party in his image, he had among the shortest coattails of any presidential winner going back to Dwight Eisenhower. In 2016, Trump ran ahead of just 24 of 241 Republican House winners and only five of 22 Republican Senate winners. — While […]

The Low Success Rate of Independent and Third-Party Candidates in Senate Elections

The long odds against Craig O’Dear in Missouri

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Missouri independent candidate Craig O’Dear is running for U.S. Senate in 2018 but faces long odds of winning. — Independent and third-party candidates tend to do poorly in most partisan elections, but they have a particularly poor track record in Senate contests. Only 11 candidates in 14 elections have […]

Senate 2018: Republicans Still Have Plenty of Targets

And Democrats need all the breaks to win a majority

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republicans have better than 50-50 odds to hold control of the U.S. Senate even in the event of a Democratic wave in November. — The reason is the map: Including the two independents who caucus with them, the Democrats are defending 26 of the 34 seats being contested this […]