Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 Senate’ Category

Alabama Senate: Jones Now Narrowly Favored

The consequences of the awful allegations against Roy Moore; plus, stirrings of an upset in Tennessee?

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s note: The Crystal Ball will not be publishing next week. We wish our readers a Happy Thanksgiving. It’s amazing to write, and there’s time for our outlook to change, but here goes: A Democrat is now a narrow favorite to win a Senate special election in Alabama. We’re changing our rating of the Dec. […]

Watch the 2017 American Democracy Conference

The Center for Politics’ 19th annual confab looks ahead to 2018 and 2020 while looking back on Trump’s first year

On Nov. 16, the University of Virginia Center for Politics hosts the 19th annual American Democracy Conference in Charlottesville, VA. The conference features leading journalists and political experts discussing the upcoming 2018 midterm election cycle, the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency, and early thoughts on the 2020 presidential election. The conference is taking place […]

Democratic Domination in the Old Dominion

Danger signs abound for the GOP, with a few caveats

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s note: This piece is based on unofficial 2017 election returns. Tuesday represented the best non-presidential election night Democrats have had since 2006. They swept the statewide ticket in Virginia for the second election in a row, and they picked up the New Jersey governorship. They also won a crucial, majority-making state Senate election in […]

Primary Colors in Red

What are the prospects of a GOP purge? And could the president face his own troubles?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A Trump-Bannon move against Republican incumbents would not be unprecedented, but having widespread success would be… If President Trump actively campaigned against incumbents of his own party in primaries next year, it would be an unusual political occurrence. But it would not be without precedent. In fact, he wouldn’t even be the first ideologically flexible, […]

The Republican Senate Edge

A look at all three classes shows the difficulties for Democrats in winning a majority in a polarized era

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The U.S. Senate is a curious, unique legislative body for a lot of reasons. It has arcane rules, such as the filibuster, which limits the passage of most legislative items unless 60 members vote yes. Representation in the Senate is not based on population; instead, each state gets two and only two senators, meaning that […]

“This Is the House That Jack Built” Premieres

New documentary examines new and little-known stories about JFK

On Wednesday evening, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations hosted the premiere of their new documentary, This is the House that Jack Built, at the Library of Virginia in Richmond. Check your local listings for the documentary, which will begin airing on public television in mid-October. Directed by Paul Tait […]

When the Out Party Runs Out of Luck

The circumstances that lead to Senate incumbents from the non-presidential party losing in a midterm

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The dominant theme in next year’s Senate elections is the confluence of two competing forces: The huge number of seats the Democrats are defending versus the usual boost that the non-presidential party, in this case the Democrats, enjoys in midterm elections. On one hand, Democrats are defending 25 of 33 seats, the most overextended any […]

Notes on the State of Politics: Senate Shenanigans in Alabama and Tennessee

Reactions to the Yellowhammer State’s runoff and the first 2018 Senate retirement comes in the Volunteer State

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Roy Moore’s Rolling Tide There were no surprises in Alabama on Tuesday as former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) dispatched appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) by about 10 points, 55%-45%, in the state’s Republican primary runoff. Most of the final polls in the race showed a margin around that mark, and as […]

Unsweet Home Alabama

The state’s brutal primary runoff battle for the GOP Senate nomination enters its final days

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In the midst of a grueling campaign for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, Alabama’s political sweet tea has acquired a distinctly sour taste. Appointed incumbent Sen. Luther Strange (R) finds himself in a vulnerable position against former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) in the party’s primary runoff election, which will take […]

New Jersey Democrats: Growing Certainty at the Ballot Box

But not in the courtroom

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Ever since comfortably winning the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in June, former Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy has seemed like a towering favorite to succeed term-limited Gov. Chris Christie (R) as New Jersey’s next governor. Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, the Republican nominee, is being dragged down by Christie’s terrible approval ratings, and Murphy has led Guadagno […]

New Poll: Some Americans Express Troubling Racial Attitudes Even as Majority Oppose White Supremacists

Survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos in conjunction with UVA Center for Politics measures racial sentiments in aftermath of August neo-Nazi rally in Charlottesville

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics finds that while there is relatively little national endorsement of neo-Nazis and white supremacists, there are troubling levels of support for certain racially-charged ideas and attitudes frequently expressed by extremist groups. The survey also found backing for keeping Confederate monuments […]

Senate Sequels: The History of Upper Chamber Rematches

Brown-Mandel II in Ohio likely to be the latest

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

About one month after Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election, Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) announced a long-expected 2018 U.S. Senate bid against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who defeated Mandel 51%-45% in Ohio’s 2012 Senate contest. Should both politicians win their party nominations — at present, each appears favored to do so — the […]

Senate 2018: Republican Edge Runs Up Against Trump, History

Beyond president’s poor numbers lies difficulty of beating out-of-power party incumbents

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Ever since Donald Trump won the presidency, 2018’s race for the Senate seemed to pit two powerful, competing forces against one another: the Republicans’ long and enticing list of Democratic targets, several of which are in some of Trump’s best states, versus the longstanding tendency of the president’s party to struggle to make gains in […]

Alabama’s Long History With Senate Special Elections

Engaging primaries and intraparty battles are nothing new in the Yellowhammer State

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The 2017 Alabama special election for the U.S. Senate kicks off with party primaries this coming Tuesday (Aug. 15). Should one or both parties have no candidate win a majority that day, a primary runoff will take place on Sept. 26. Both sides have crowded fields, but given the dark red hue of the state, […]

Senate Ratings Change: Heller Moves to Toss-Up

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The failure — so far, anyway — of Senate Republicans to concoct a health care proposal that could win the necessary 50 votes from the 52-member GOP Senate caucus must have proven particularly agonizing for Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV). The endangered senator, who is the only Republican from a state that Hillary Clinton carried facing […]