Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 Senate’ Category

How’d we do?

Longstanding picks of a Democratic House, significant Democratic gubernatorial gains, and GOP Senate pan out

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It took a lot of Krazy Glue, but we think we pieced the Crystal Ball back together, reassembling after 2016 shattered us and just about every other prediction group. As of this writing, early Wednesday afternoon, and with many uncalled House races remaining, the real-time seat projections from both the New York Times and FiveThirtyEight […]

Final picks for 2018

Democrats in House; Republicans in Senate; Democrats big in gubernatorial races; be on guard for upsets

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Sorry, friends, but you are going to have to actually read this one. — Our full list of ratings changes is available here. Our best guesses for Tuesday The 2018 midterm has long been a study in contradictory signs. There is, for Republicans, the benefit of running at […]

Five days to go

Where we’re leaning in the House, Senate, and governors

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Our final picks are coming Monday. In the meantime, our longstanding overall assessment — Democrats favored in House, Republicans bigger favorites in Senate — remains in place. — Four ratings changes in the House. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating David Valadao (R, […]

New polls: Democrats lead marquee Florida races; Arizona Senate, Kansas governor effectively tied

The final pre-election Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics state-level polls of this election cycle shows Democratic candidates leading for the Sunshine State’s high-profile gubernatorial and Senate contests, while the open-seat Senate race in Arizona and the battle for the open Kansas governorship are effectively tied. These are the second Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics polls […]

A dozen days to go: Ratings changes in gubernatorial, House races

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The battles for the state governorships are getting more volatile as Election Day nears. We are moving three races, Kansas, Oregon, and South Dakota, to Toss-up. — Republican odds of holding the Senate are as good as ever. — The playing field continues to expand in the House. […]

New polls: Nevada, Texas, Wisconsin

Republicans lead in Nevada, Democrats in Wisconsin; Cruz ahead in high-profile Texas Senate race

New Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polls show Republicans ahead in key races in Nevada and Texas, while Democrats lead in the Wisconsin Senate race and both parties are locked in a close race for the Badger State’s governorship. These are the second polls that Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics has released of these states. […]

New polls in the South: Georgia gubernatorial race tied; Tennessee Senate race close

Two new polls from Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics show close races in two high-profile, open-seat Southern contests: the Tennessee Senate race and Georgia gubernatorial race. In Tennessee, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R, TN-7) leads former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) 47%-44%. Earlier in the campaign, this poll might have been taken as a good sign […]

Midterm Update: North Dakota goes to Leans Republican, giving the Republicans a clearer edge in the Senate

Dark red states going different directions in gubernatorial contests

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The North Dakota Senate race moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican, reinforcing what we’ve long described as a GOP edge in the race for the Senate. — The Democrats do have a path to the majority, but that path almost certainly involves winning at least one race we currently […]

New polls: Rauner in big trouble in Illinois; McCaskill, Hawley locked in tied Missouri Senate race

Missouri likely voters mixed on McCaskill’s no vote on Kavanaugh

Two new Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polls show Democrats well on their way to picking up a key gubernatorial seat, while both parties are locked in a tied race in one of the most pivotal Senate races in the country. In Illinois, businessman J.B Pritzker (D) leads Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) 50% to […]

Ratings Changes: House, Senate, and Governor

Democrats inching closer to magic number in House, poised to net several governorships; Senate battle murky as Kavanaugh effect uncertain

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  Editor’s Note: Before we begin this week, we just wanted to acknowledge our friend Geoffrey Skelley, our long-time Crystal Ball associate editor. Geoff started a new position this week with FiveThirtyEight. For nearly seven years, Geoffrey was an exceptionally valuable member of our team, and we will miss him tremendously. However, we are also […]

The Senate: How 2018 sets up 2020

Keeping an eye on the next map in this cycle’s closing stretch

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The 2018 Senate races are important not just for determining the majority next January, but also for setting up both parties for the next election. — Republicans are defending almost double the seats that Democrats are defending in 2020, something of a reversal from this cycle, where Democrats are […]

New polls: Democrats in decent shape across the Frost Belt

Democratic Senate incumbents with big leads in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; very close races in Indiana Senate and Ohio governor; Scott Walker behind in Wisconsin

A series of new Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polls found Democrats ahead in a host of Senate and gubernatorial races in five mostly Midwest states that President Trump carried in 2016, in some cases by sizable margins. However, the polling did find two very close contests for Indiana Senate and Ohio governor. The […]

Keep on Keepin’ On: 2018 Incumbent Renomination Rates

Four incumbents lost primaries in the House, one in gubernatorial contests, and none in the Senate

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As a whole, incumbents won renomination in U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial nomination contests at a typical rate in 2018. In all, 100% of senators, 99% of representatives, and 95% of governors who sought renomination in Democratic or Republican primaries/conventions won renomination this cycle. — Just four members […]

New polls: Tight Senate races across the Sun Belt

Florida, Texas effectively tied; mixed bag for both parties in Arizona, Nevada

A series of new Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polls found close races in the key Senate battlegrounds of Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Texas. The polls, conducted online in English from Sept. 5 to 17 with roughly 2,000 respondents per state (narrowed down to about 1,000 likely voters per state), found the following results […]

Introduction: The 2018 Midterm Election Forecasts

, Guest Columnist

Editor’s Note: In an effort to provide as broad a view as possible to readers about different methods of forecasting the 2018 midterm election, we have been featuring models from respected political scientists that aim to project the net seat change in the U.S. House of Representatives. So far, we’ve published models from Crystal Ball […]