Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 House’ Category

The Seats/Votes Relationship in the U.S. House 1972-2018

With big national win, Democrats in 2018 overcame GOP bias from earlier in decade

, Guest Columnist

Editor’s Note: This is an updated version of a story we previously published in June 2015 and January 2017 looking at the national House vote. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — After adjusting the results for uncontested races, Democrats won the national House popular vote by about seven percentage points last fall. — The size of the […]

The Year of the Green Wave

How Democratic House fundraising spiked in 2018

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Democratic newcomer candidates spent far more money than in previous cycles, while Republicans’ spending numbers stayed stagnant. — Female candidates enjoyed a cash advantage over male candidates, with an especially large gap among Democrats in open competitive seats. –There has been no observable advantage in the amount of cash […]

How’d we do in 2018? A final update

Editor’s Note: Three quick notes this week: 1. Our First-Ever Name Our Post-Election Book Contest: We’re pleased to announce that our book looking back on the 2018 midterms and ahead to 2020 will come out in April 2019 and will be published by Rowman and Littlefield. The book is as yet-untitled, and that’s where you […]

Moderation in the Pursuit of Reelection May Not Help

Evidence from the 2018 House elections

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — District partisanship was by far the strongest determinant of the results of House elections in 2018, with Republican candidates typically running behind Donald Trump’s 2016 margins in all types of districts. — Whether incumbents under- or over-performed was unrelated to ideology. Moderate Republicans actually were more likely to be […]

How’d we do?

Longstanding picks of a Democratic House, significant Democratic gubernatorial gains, and GOP Senate pan out

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It took a lot of Krazy Glue, but we think we pieced the Crystal Ball back together, reassembling after 2016 shattered us and just about every other prediction group. As of this writing, early Wednesday afternoon, and with many uncalled House races remaining, the real-time seat projections from both the New York Times and FiveThirtyEight […]

Final picks for 2018

Democrats in House; Republicans in Senate; Democrats big in gubernatorial races; be on guard for upsets

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Sorry, friends, but you are going to have to actually read this one. — Our full list of ratings changes is available here. Our best guesses for Tuesday The 2018 midterm has long been a study in contradictory signs. There is, for Republicans, the benefit of running at […]

Five days to go

Where we’re leaning in the House, Senate, and governors

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Our final picks are coming Monday. In the meantime, our longstanding overall assessment — Democrats favored in House, Republicans bigger favorites in Senate — remains in place. — Four ratings changes in the House. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating David Valadao (R, […]

How Republicans could hold the House

Higher turnout historically does not guide outcomes, and lack of 2016 GOP surge may limit 2018’s GOP decline

, Guest Columnists

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — There is no systematic relationship between the turnout rate and the Democratic Party’s (or the Republican Party’s) share of the two-party congressional vote. — Midterms often feature a decline for the presidential party after a surge in the House in the presidential year. But Republicans enjoyed no surge in […]

The House Bellwethers

Some of the places that have most consistently voted for the majority party in the House may see their streaks broken if Democrats win

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The longest running House bellwether is a rural, conservative portion of Ohio. — If Democrats win the House, that streak and some other House bellwether streaks will likely be snapped. — The newest bellwethers might be in the Philadelphia suburbs, Northeast Pennsylvania, and Upstate New York. The places that […]

A dozen days to go: Ratings changes in gubernatorial, House races

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The battles for the state governorships are getting more volatile as Election Day nears. We are moving three races, Kansas, Oregon, and South Dakota, to Toss-up. — Republican odds of holding the Senate are as good as ever. — The playing field continues to expand in the House. […]

Forecasting the Democratic State Legislative Wavelet of 2018

, Guest Columnist

  Editor’s Note: After showcasing a state legislative assessment from experts at the National Conference of State Legislatures a couple of weeks ago, we’re pleased to offer another look at those races, this week from Carl Klarner. His forecast suggests that Democrats are positioned to pick up several state legislative chambers this year. If you’re […]

The Drive for 25: An updated seat-by-seat analysis of the House

Democrats closing in on majority but it's not a sure thing

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A race-by-race analysis of Democratic House targets shows the party is close to winning the majority, but they do not have it put away, in our judgment, with Election Day less than three weeks away. — Barring a big, positive late change in the political environment in favor […]

Midterm Update: North Dakota goes to Leans Republican, giving the Republicans a clearer edge in the Senate

Dark red states going different directions in gubernatorial contests

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The North Dakota Senate race moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican, reinforcing what we’ve long described as a GOP edge in the race for the Senate. — The Democrats do have a path to the majority, but that path almost certainly involves winning at least one race we currently […]

Ratings Changes: House, Senate, and Governor

Democrats inching closer to magic number in House, poised to net several governorships; Senate battle murky as Kavanaugh effect uncertain

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  Editor’s Note: Before we begin this week, we just wanted to acknowledge our friend Geoffrey Skelley, our long-time Crystal Ball associate editor. Geoff started a new position this week with FiveThirtyEight. For nearly seven years, Geoffrey was an exceptionally valuable member of our team, and we will miss him tremendously. However, we are also […]

Ratings Changes: House and Governors

Affluent suburban seats looking dicier for GOP, but their numbers in the House are not all bad; Colorado, Michigan gubernatorial races shift to Democrats

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A slew of new House polling, mostly from the New York Times and Siena College, contains bright spots for both parties but also suggests a Democratic edge in the race for the House. — We have seven House ratings changes, all in favor of Democrats. — We also have […]