Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 House’ Category

Clues From the Upcoming California Primary

Plus: Updates from Tuesday night’s primaries

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The California primary on June 5 is the most important election in the battle for the House prior to November. — Democrats are hoping to avoid getting shut out of November by the state’s top-two primary in multiple districts, and the results should provide a rough guide for the […]

The Democrats’ Drive for 25 in the House: An Update

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — This piece revisits a proposed path to a Democratic House majority we sketched out in early February. — Overall, the Democrats’ odds in the districts mentioned have largely but not universally gotten a little better. — The California primary on June 5 looms as the most important date […]

Mad as Hell: How Anger Diminishes Trust in Government

With politics increasingly defined by feelings of anger toward the opposing party, trust in government is bound to decline unless something changes drastically

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Over the past 60 years, trust in government has declined precipitously. Whereas high levels of trust in the national government were typical during the Eisenhower Administration, by 2016 only a fifth of Americans said they trusted the government “always” or “most of the time.” — Using a survey experiment […]

The Very Stable House Generic Ballot

Outside of a high in December, the Democrats have held a lead of roughly six to eight points

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — On average, Democrats led the generic ballot by 7.1 points over the past year. The monthly average ranged from 6.2 points in February 2018 to 10.1 points in December 2017. The December result was clearly an outlier, however, and may have led to a misinterpretation of more recent results […]

Ratings Changes: Senate, Governor, House

Both parties generally avoided bad choices in Tuesday’s primaries

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republican primary voters avoided a self-inflicted wound in West Virginia when disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship (R) finished third in the GOP Senate primary. — Much else went as expected Tuesday night. — Five ratings changes this week affect races for Senate, governor, and House, but most importantly broaden […]

Ohio’s Primary: The Heart of It All

The Buckeye State’s bellwether status may be fading, but a wild May and November to come reflect some major national trends

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The fissures emerging in both parties are evident in Ohio as the state holds its primary next week on May 8. — The likeliest matchup in the state’s open-seat gubernatorial race is a rematch of 2010’s battle for state attorney general, as former AG Richard Cordray (D)[1] and current […]

In the Battle for the House, the 2016 Presidential Results Don’t Tell the Whole Tale

Third-party showings, previous candidate performance also important in rating House races

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A surprising result in two special House elections last year, when Democrats ended up coming closer to winning an overlooked race in South Carolina than a nationally-watched contest in Georgia, showed an overreliance on past presidential election history to project House results. — When assessing the true Democratic targets […]

Raising the Ceiling, but Not the Floor, on Potential Democratic House Gains

Playing field widens even as odds of turnover don’t change

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The number of potentially vulnerable Republican seats is growing, and we’re adding an extra 10 GOP-held seats to the Likely Republican column this week. — All of these members remain solid favorites for reelection, but at the same time, many seem likely to face better-funded challengers than they are […]

California Dreamin’: Carving the Golden State Into Thirds

Examining the hypothetical political impact of dividing California into three states

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The “Cal 3” initiative is the latest in a long line of proposals to divide California into multiple states. This plan aims to carve up the Golden State into three new states. — While the proposal has little chance of success, hypothetically the fragmentation of California would have notable […]

Exit Paul Ryan

Another blow to Republican odds in the House

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — House Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R, WI-1) retirement makes his now-open seat a Toss-up, although the seat definitely sits to the right of the national average. — Ryan’s departure adds to an already high number of open seats, and some Republicans could take his exit as a signal to leave […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Mirror images of vulnerability; two statewide Democrats get upgrades; electoral consequences from #MeToo

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The partisan structure of the races for governorships and Senate seats are now exact mirror opposites. — Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) get ratings upgrades. — Rep. Elizabeth Esty’s (D, CT-5) retirement gives Republicans an upset opportunity and is another example of how #MeToo is […]

The House Exodus

How the historically high number of open seats affects the November calculus

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As of this writing, just 379 of 435 House districts will have incumbents running in them this November. That’s the second-lowest total of the post-World War II era. — The 56 total open districts include 37 open Republican-held seats and 19 open Democratic seats. — The best pickup opportunities […]

The Seats/Votes Relationship and the Efficiency Gap: House Elections 1972-2016

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The efficiency gap is a way to measure whether one party receives disproportionately more or fewer U.S. House seats compared to their share of the national House popular vote. — In the 1970s and 1980s, the Democrats generally won a greater share of seats than their total vote would […]

Exit Stage Left or Right: Midterm Retirements and Open Seats in the House From 1974 to 2018

Republicans already have many abandoned districts to defend this November. Are there more to come?

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — By multiple measures — such as retirements, “pure” retirements, and open seats that must be defended — this cycle’s GOP has one of the highest levels of exposure in the U.S. House of any presidential party dating back to 1974. — Republicans already have more retirements than any presidential […]

Are Republicans in More Special Trouble?

Assessing upcoming House specials in Arizona and Ohio after Lamb’s upset in Pennsylvania

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — An apparent Democratic takeover in a western Pennsylvania House district that President Trump won by 20 points is an embarrassing setback for Republicans. — The Republicans’ poor special election performances in general, combined with other factors such as the president’s low approval rating and a Democratic lead on House […]