Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 House’ Category

House 2018: Health Care Vote Gives Democrats Another Midterm Argument

Close to 20 ratings changes reflect potential for House to flip

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Democrats are hopeful that Republicans’ vote last week to pass the American Health Care Act provides them an argument to use in next year’s election. Only 20 House Republicans voted against the bill, which is not polling well and which Democrats are angling to use as a cudgel against the GOP. The AHCA’s passage in […]

Overtime in Georgia

GA-6 special election provides silver linings for both parties

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Note: This piece has been updated to reflect the final results in GA-6 as of Wednesday morning, April 19. The first round jungle primary in the nationally-watched special election in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District offered something for both parties. Republicans are pleased that they forced a runoff, and Karen Handel (R), the former Georgia secretary […]

Special Circumstances

Georgia’s Sixth District and the dangers of overinterpreting special elections

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Whatever happens in the first round of voting in the special election in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District on Tuesday, it seems like a safe bet that the result will get a fair amount of national attention because of what it may tell us about the 2018 midterm. But before getting into what those lessons may […]

Excerpt From Our New Book, Trumped: Polling in the 2016 Election and What It Means Going Forward

Examining the implications for public opinion surveys beyond the horse race

  Dear Readers: Our new book on 2016’s remarkable election, Trumped, is now available. Trumped features some of the nation’s sharpest political reporters and analysts breaking down an election that truly broke all the rules. The following is taken from Chapter 10 of the book, authored by Ariel Edwards-Levy and Natalie Jackson of Huffington Post, […]

Rooting for Failure

Democrats use a familiar playbook in the Trump era

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It’s been nearly a week since the Republican plan to dramatically alter the Affordable Care Act died without a vote in the House of Representatives. It’s 84 weeks until the next national election, the 2018 midterm. So saying anything with confidence about how, if at all, the GOP’s failure to pass its American Health Care […]

Initial 2018 House Ratings

List of competitive districts filled with Democratic targets that will require a wave to flip

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Democrats have a path to winning a House majority next year, but that possibility is highly dependent on variables over which they have effectively no control. That’s the takeaway from our initial ratings of 2018’s House races, a list that is heavy on Republicans who start this cycle only mildly endangered. Historically, the president’s party […]

How Midterms Do (and Do Not) Differ From Presidential Elections

What recent history tells us about the likely size and makeup of next year’s electorate

, UVA Center for Politics

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball is taking off next week for the University of Virginia’s spring recess. We’ll be back on Thursday, March 16. — The Editors With politicos everywhere turning their eyes to the still-distant 2018 midterm election, we thought it would be useful to review some of the basic differences and similarities between […]

Can Democrats Take Back the House in 2018?

2006 cycle suggests they could if they can expand the playing field

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Democrats would appear to face long odds in the 2018 U.S. House elections. They need to pick up 24 seats to take back control of the House, and there are only 23 Republicans who hold districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016. In this politically-polarized era, presidential election results strongly predict House election results, and […]

House 2018: Crossover Appeal

Assessing the districts where voters split their tickets, and also the Democrats’ odds of winning back the lower chamber

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It’s become far less common in recent years for voters to vote for one party for president and another for their local U.S. House seat. While the number of “crossover” districts did go up from 2012 — there are 35 of them, as opposed to 26 after the 2012 election — the percentage of crossover […]

2018 House: The Ground Moving Under Their Feet

Where the presidential vote changed the most in 2016 and what it might mean for 2018

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Election years are separate but also connected. Assuming he is confirmed by the Senate to be the next secretary of Health and Human Services, Rep. Tom Price (R, GA-6) will be vacating his suburban Atlanta seat sometime soon. He would be replaced by the winner of a special election, which could be held as soon […]

Gerrymandering the House, 1972-2016

The high bar Democrats need to clear in order to win back the majority

, Guest Columnist

Editor’s note: This is an updated version of a story we previously published in June 2015. Redistricting the U.S. House of Representatives is not a unified, national process, unlike most national legislatures. Rather, it’s the result of cumulative actions taken by individual states. Nevertheless, it is useful to look at the entire House to see […]

An Inexperienced Congress and Cabinet

Highlights from our friend Bruce Mehlman’s latest presentation

Dear Readers: Several times a year, Bruce Mehlman releases a fascinating PowerPoint presentation filled with interesting nuggets about American politics and government. Mehlman, a Republican lobbyist with the bipartisan firm Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas, is a University of Virginia Law School graduate and friend of the Crystal Ball. Because we get so much out […]

2017: At the Dawn of the Age of Trump

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

It’s already clear that the very strange political year of 2016 is bleeding over into the New Year. How could it be otherwise? President-elect Donald Trump, loved and hated by about equal numbers of Americans, continues to ignore or break with convention in a wide variety of areas. Just as the normal rules didn’t apply […]