Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 House’ Category

House 2018: How Big Is the Playing Field?

Democrats need a large one, because beating all the most vulnerable incumbents is unrealistic

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

If Democrats do have a chance to win the House next year, it might be because they translated a currently big field of announced candidates into credible opportunities to flip not just some of the top seats on their list of targets, but also some seats that, on paper, might not seem like they should […]

Center for Politics Reveals Trailer for New John F. Kennedy Documentary

Sabato also calls upon President Trump to allow release of remaining JFK documents later this year

A trailer for the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ forthcoming documentary, This Is The House That Jack Built, is now available. The documentary is the latest collaboration between the Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations, which regularly partner to produce documentary films for public television on American politics and history. This Is The […]

For House Republicans, Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results

What recent midterms tell us about how members of the presidential party fare

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

As they dig their trenches to try to withstand what may (or may not be) a Democratic wave, Republicans may take heart in the performance of their current incumbents last year as a buffer against a potentially challenging environment next year. Very few of the Republicans’ 241 House victories last year were small. Just 15 […]

Generic Ballot Model Gives Democrats Early Advantage in Battle for Control of House

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Results of recent special elections have fueled speculation about whether Democrats have a realistic chance to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections. Although Republican candidates have won recent special elections for seats vacated by President Donald Trump’s Cabinet appointees in Georgia, Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina, the GOP […]

2006 Shows Why Democratic Loss in Ga-6 Stings

, Guest Columnist

Editor’s Note: As we telegraphed last week, we are moving GA-6 from Toss-up to Leans Republican and installing Rep.-elect Karen Handel (R) as a favorite for the 2018 midterm after her victory over former congressional aide Jon Ossoff (D). Additionally, we are moving SC-5 to Safe Republican after Rep.-elect Ralph Norman (R) won, though his […]

The Georgia House Special: Still on the Razor’s Edge

Beware sweeping conclusions from a race that could feature a very close outcome

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

We are not going to make a call in the GA-6 special election. Such elections are notoriously hard to poll and prone to unpredictable results. Besides, events of recent days (the British parliamentary elections, where the Conservatives did worse than many expected, as well as the Virginia gubernatorial primaries, which defied most polls) and months […]

What to Make of Montana?

Sifting through a bizarre race for 2018 clues

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Great Depression-era Montana: A State Guide Book, produced as part of the federal government’s American Guide Series, notes that the state’s history “is alive with action and color.” That doubles as a great description of the state’s special at-large congressional election, particularly its outrageous final hours, during which Rep.-elect Greg Gianforte (R, MT-AL) attacked […]

House 2018: Health Care Vote Gives Democrats Another Midterm Argument

Close to 20 ratings changes reflect potential for House to flip

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Democrats are hopeful that Republicans’ vote last week to pass the American Health Care Act provides them an argument to use in next year’s election. Only 20 House Republicans voted against the bill, which is not polling well and which Democrats are angling to use as a cudgel against the GOP. The AHCA’s passage in […]

Overtime in Georgia

GA-6 special election provides silver linings for both parties

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Note: This piece has been updated to reflect the final results in GA-6 as of Wednesday morning, April 19. The first round jungle primary in the nationally-watched special election in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District offered something for both parties. Republicans are pleased that they forced a runoff, and Karen Handel (R), the former Georgia secretary […]

Special Circumstances

Georgia’s Sixth District and the dangers of overinterpreting special elections

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Whatever happens in the first round of voting in the special election in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District on Tuesday, it seems like a safe bet that the result will get a fair amount of national attention because of what it may tell us about the 2018 midterm. But before getting into what those lessons may […]

Excerpt From Our New Book, Trumped: Polling in the 2016 Election and What It Means Going Forward

Examining the implications for public opinion surveys beyond the horse race

  Dear Readers: Our new book on 2016’s remarkable election, Trumped, is now available. Trumped features some of the nation’s sharpest political reporters and analysts breaking down an election that truly broke all the rules. The following is taken from Chapter 10 of the book, authored by Ariel Edwards-Levy and Natalie Jackson of Huffington Post, […]

Rooting for Failure

Democrats use a familiar playbook in the Trump era

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It’s been nearly a week since the Republican plan to dramatically alter the Affordable Care Act died without a vote in the House of Representatives. It’s 84 weeks until the next national election, the 2018 midterm. So saying anything with confidence about how, if at all, the GOP’s failure to pass its American Health Care […]

Initial 2018 House Ratings

List of competitive districts filled with Democratic targets that will require a wave to flip

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Democrats have a path to winning a House majority next year, but that possibility is highly dependent on variables over which they have effectively no control. That’s the takeaway from our initial ratings of 2018’s House races, a list that is heavy on Republicans who start this cycle only mildly endangered. Historically, the president’s party […]

How Midterms Do (and Do Not) Differ From Presidential Elections

What recent history tells us about the likely size and makeup of next year’s electorate

, UVA Center for Politics

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball is taking off next week for the University of Virginia’s spring recess. We’ll be back on Thursday, March 16. — The Editors With politicos everywhere turning their eyes to the still-distant 2018 midterm election, we thought it would be useful to review some of the basic differences and similarities between […]

Can Democrats Take Back the House in 2018?

2006 cycle suggests they could if they can expand the playing field

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Democrats would appear to face long odds in the 2018 U.S. House elections. They need to pick up 24 seats to take back control of the House, and there are only 23 Republicans who hold districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016. In this politically-polarized era, presidential election results strongly predict House election results, and […]