Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 House’ Category

Watch the 2017 American Democracy Conference

The Center for Politics’ 19th annual confab looks ahead to 2018 and 2020 while looking back on Trump’s first year

On Nov. 16, the University of Virginia Center for Politics hosts the 19th annual American Democracy Conference in Charlottesville, VA. The conference features leading journalists and political experts discussing the upcoming 2018 midterm election cycle, the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency, and early thoughts on the 2020 presidential election. The conference is taking place […]

Democratic Domination in the Old Dominion

Danger signs abound for the GOP, with a few caveats

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s note: This piece is based on unofficial 2017 election returns. Tuesday represented the best non-presidential election night Democrats have had since 2006. They swept the statewide ticket in Virginia for the second election in a row, and they picked up the New Jersey governorship. They also won a crucial, majority-making state Senate election in […]

Primary Colors in Red

What are the prospects of a GOP purge? And could the president face his own troubles?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A Trump-Bannon move against Republican incumbents would not be unprecedented, but having widespread success would be… If President Trump actively campaigned against incumbents of his own party in primaries next year, it would be an unusual political occurrence. But it would not be without precedent. In fact, he wouldn’t even be the first ideologically flexible, […]

Underneath It All: Elections for the Virginia House of Delegates

The General Assembly’s lower chamber is also up for election on Nov. 7

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

While November’s political spotlight will shine brightest on the gubernatorial contest at the top of the Virginia ticket between former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie (R) and Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D), there will also be many interesting races down-ballot in the Old Dominion on Election Day. Not only will there be elections for […]

“This Is the House That Jack Built” Premieres

New documentary examines new and little-known stories about JFK

On Wednesday evening, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations hosted the premiere of their new documentary, This is the House that Jack Built, at the Library of Virginia in Richmond. Check your local listings for the documentary, which will begin airing on public television in mid-October. Directed by Paul Tait […]

New Poll: Some Americans Express Troubling Racial Attitudes Even as Majority Oppose White Supremacists

Survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos in conjunction with UVA Center for Politics measures racial sentiments in aftermath of August neo-Nazi rally in Charlottesville

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics finds that while there is relatively little national endorsement of neo-Nazis and white supremacists, there are troubling levels of support for certain racially-charged ideas and attitudes frequently expressed by extremist groups. The survey also found backing for keeping Confederate monuments […]

House 2018: Reichert Retirement Creates Big Democratic Opportunity

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The retirement of Rep. Dave Reichert (R, WA-8) on Wednesday from a swing district immediately transforms that district from a longshot Democratic pickup opportunity to one of their best chances to flip a GOP-held seat in the whole country. Accordingly, we’re moving it from Likely Republican all the way to Toss-up. Reichert, a former King […]

House 2018: How Big Is the Playing Field?

Democrats need a large one, because beating all the most vulnerable incumbents is unrealistic

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

If Democrats do have a chance to win the House next year, it might be because they translated a currently big field of announced candidates into credible opportunities to flip not just some of the top seats on their list of targets, but also some seats that, on paper, might not seem like they should […]

Center for Politics Reveals Trailer for New John F. Kennedy Documentary

Sabato also calls upon President Trump to allow release of remaining JFK documents later this year

A trailer for the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ forthcoming documentary, This Is The House That Jack Built, is now available. The documentary is the latest collaboration between the Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations, which regularly partner to produce documentary films for public television on American politics and history. This Is The […]

For House Republicans, Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results

What recent midterms tell us about how members of the presidential party fare

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

As they dig their trenches to try to withstand what may (or may not be) a Democratic wave, Republicans may take heart in the performance of their current incumbents last year as a buffer against a potentially challenging environment next year. Very few of the Republicans’ 241 House victories last year were small. Just 15 […]

Generic Ballot Model Gives Democrats Early Advantage in Battle for Control of House

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Results of recent special elections have fueled speculation about whether Democrats have a realistic chance to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections. Although Republican candidates have won recent special elections for seats vacated by President Donald Trump’s Cabinet appointees in Georgia, Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina, the GOP […]

2006 Shows Why Democratic Loss in Ga-6 Stings

, Guest Columnist

Editor’s Note: As we telegraphed last week, we are moving GA-6 from Toss-up to Leans Republican and installing Rep.-elect Karen Handel (R) as a favorite for the 2018 midterm after her victory over former congressional aide Jon Ossoff (D). Additionally, we are moving SC-5 to Safe Republican after Rep.-elect Ralph Norman (R) won, though his […]

The Georgia House Special: Still on the Razor’s Edge

Beware sweeping conclusions from a race that could feature a very close outcome

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

We are not going to make a call in the GA-6 special election. Such elections are notoriously hard to poll and prone to unpredictable results. Besides, events of recent days (the British parliamentary elections, where the Conservatives did worse than many expected, as well as the Virginia gubernatorial primaries, which defied most polls) and months […]

What to Make of Montana?

Sifting through a bizarre race for 2018 clues

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Great Depression-era Montana: A State Guide Book, produced as part of the federal government’s American Guide Series, notes that the state’s history “is alive with action and color.” That doubles as a great description of the state’s special at-large congressional election, particularly its outrageous final hours, during which Rep.-elect Greg Gianforte (R, MT-AL) attacked […]

House 2018: Health Care Vote Gives Democrats Another Midterm Argument

Close to 20 ratings changes reflect potential for House to flip

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Democrats are hopeful that Republicans’ vote last week to pass the American Health Care Act provides them an argument to use in next year’s election. Only 20 House Republicans voted against the bill, which is not polling well and which Democrats are angling to use as a cudgel against the GOP. The AHCA’s passage in […]