Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 House’ Category

Introduction: The 2018 Midterm Election Forecasts

, Guest Columnist

Editor’s Note: In an effort to provide as broad a view as possible to readers about different methods of forecasting the 2018 midterm election, we have been featuring models from respected political scientists that aim to project the net seat change in the U.S. House of Representatives. So far, we’ve published models from Crystal Ball […]

The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections

, Guest Columnist

The Seats-in-Trouble model of party seat change in national congressional elections (both on-year and midterms) is a hybrid election forecasting model. It combines the insights and comprehensive assessments of expert election analysts examining in depth the conditions of individual House and Senate contests with a rigorous statistical analysis of historical aggregate data of partisan seat […]

Congressional Forecasts for 2018: Structure-X Models

, Guest Columnists

We build here on our “Structure-X model,” successfully applied in 2014. We first generate a 2018 forecast from our classic structural model. Next, we adjust this forecast on the basis of expert judgments provided in Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. With respect to the first step, the structural model, we employ the following equation: […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Developments in Alaska’s gubernatorial race make it the GOP’s best pick-up target, three ratings changes in the House, and newly-appointed Sen. Jon Kyl becomes an unusual Senate two-timer

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Governors: The Last Frontier’s three-cornered fight favors the Republicans On Tuesday, an important deadline came and went in Alaska’s gubernatorial race: the final day that a candidate could officially withdraw and not appear on the November ballot. Since former Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) entered the race on June 1, the final day to file as […]

A Labor Day Status Report

Plus, updates from Tuesday night

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor Day weekend and the start of the sprint to Election Day, we thought we’d do something different. Instead of key points from this article, here are some key points about this election so far: Pluses […]

Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election Using National Polls and District Information

, Guest Columnists

Editor’s Note: In advance of the 2016 election, the Crystal Ball featured several political science forecasts of the presidential race. Released several months in advance of the election, these models included variables such as the incumbent’s approval rating, the economy, and other “fundamental” factors, and they generally did a good job of projecting a very […]

Center for Politics, Ipsos Public Affairs Release New Midterm Election Forecasting Tools

New Political Atlas features expert race ratings, poll-based forecasts, and social media trends in advance of the 2018 election

(WASHINGTON, DC) — The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos today launched the UVA Center for Politics-Ipsos Political Atlas. The new site combines Sabato’s Crystal Ball race ratings for every House, Senate, and gubernatorial race; Ipsos’ poll-based modeling; and Ipsos’ tracking of social media trends. Ipsos and the Center for Politics unveiled the […]

House Update: 12 Ratings Changes

For Republicans, Cohen and Manafort news exacts an opportunity cost

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Tuesday’s episode of real-life Law and Order involving two figures close to the president, Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort, may not directly hurt the GOP in the midterm. But given their current position, the Republicans need a little help, and Tuesday didn’t provide it. — We are making 12 […]

Exploring the Incumbency Advantage

U.S. House members’ traditional edge now appears marginal

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The incumbency advantage in U.S. House races, at least during this decade, has been relatively minor. — There’s no evidence that longer-serving incumbents build a larger incumbency advantage over time. This decade’s marginal incumbency edge It may be the oldest assumption in politics: Incumbents hold an advantage, and the […]

The House: Ratings Changes in the Aftermath of Another Nail-Biter Special Election

GOP likely holds on in OH-12, but narrow result and other developments Tuesday reinforce positive Democratic trends

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A likely GOP win in a suburban Columbus House seat still represents a significant underperformance compared to usual Republican performances there. — Washington state’s top-two primary results so far should also be concerning to Republicans because they indicate three districts could be at risk in the fall. — We […]

The House Tilts Toward the Democrats

Big-picture factors help minority party, but battle far from over; 17 ratings changes in favor of Democrats

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is a special Tuesday edition of the Crystal Ball. We’ll be back to our regular Thursday schedule next week. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Democrats are now a little better than 50-50 to win the House. This is the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House […]

Registering by Party: Where the Democrats and Republicans Are Ahead

, Senior Columnist

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In […]

A Half-Dozen House Ratings Changes in Favor of Democrats

And the fall of Joe Crowley in New York

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Rep. Joe Crowley’s (D, NY-14) primary loss represents a changing of the guard in a diverse district. It does not necessarily suggest we should expect a flood of additional Democratic primary losers. As it stands, only three incumbent House members have lost renomination so far this cycle (Crowley, plus […]

Two Ways of Thinking About Election Predictions and What They Tell Us About 2018

There are differences in method, accuracy, and probability between quantitative forecasting and ratings-based handicapping

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Two approaches to forecasting — one formally statistical, one rigorous yet flexible handicapping — produce different tools that we can use to evaluate the battle for control of the U.S. House in the 2018 midterms. — The Crystal Ball and other political handicappers use a “qualitative” method to generate […]

What Happened in the June 12 Primary

Maine experiments with ranked-choice voting, the Virginia GOP backs Stewart for Senate, and Sanford loses renomination in South Carolina

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: — Maine became the first state in modern U.S. history to use ranked-choice voting (also known as instant-runoff voting) in a statewide election. But this was not the first time that a state used a form of ranked voting or preferential voting. In the early 1900s, a number of states […]