Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 House’ Category

The Districts That Will Determine the Next House Majority

Charting out the Democrats’ path to 218 seats, district by district

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — In sketching out a potential path to a bare Democratic House majority of 218 seats out of 435, we found that in all likelihood the Democrats will need to win similar numbers of Republican-held seats won by Hillary Clinton as well as by Donald Trump in the last presidential […]

Mixed Signals: Analyzing Elections Since Trump Won the Presidency

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — In 2013 elections, Democratic candidates ran behind Barack Obama’s 2012 two-party vote percentage by an average of 5.9 percentage points. A great Republican cycle in 2014 followed. In elections since December 2016, Republican candidates have run an average of 2.6 points behind Donald Trump’s 2016 two-party vote share, a […]

Revisiting Virginia’s Vote

Analyzing the popular vote in the House of Delegates and the coattails effect

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — Democrats won the two-party popular vote in the House of Delegates 54.8%-45.2% but carried just 49 of 100 seats in the chamber. — Adjusting for uncontested seats, Democrats won an estimated vote of 51.7% to the GOP’s 48.3% in the two-party vote. According to this percentage and the Democratic […]

Open Season in the House

Republicans retirements give Democrats some clear targets, but path to House majority more about beating incumbents

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — So far there are 46 House seats where an incumbent won’t be running for reelection in November. That is already above the postwar average, and more open seats are likely. — The current list of retirees includes 31 Republicans and 15 Democrats. Wave years sometimes but not always feature […]

Partisan Gerrymandering and the Outlook for the 2018 U.s. House Elections

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

There is a growing sense among political observers that the United States may be heading toward a wave election in 2018. Results of recent special elections, including Doug Jones’ (D) victory in the Alabama Senate race on Tuesday, along with Democratic victories in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and surprisingly large Democratic gains […]

Franken Out? How We’d Rate a Minnesota Senate Special

Plus two House ratings changes

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

As of Wednesday night, it appeared as though Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) was poised to announce his resignation from the Senate on Thursday morning. Franken has faced several credible accusations of groping women and making unwanted sexual advances, and on Wednesday, the dam finally broke and a slew of his Democratic Senate colleagues began asking […]

House 2018: Less Than a Year Out, Race for Control Is a Coin Flip

25 ratings changes, mostly in Democrats’ favor

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In the aftermath of the 2014 midterm election, when the party that didn’t hold the White House (the Republicans) gained ground in the House for the 36th time in 39 midterms since the Civil War, I wrote the following in the Center for Politics’ postmortem on the election, The Surge: Practically speaking, though, House Democrats […]

Watch the 2017 American Democracy Conference

The Center for Politics’ 19th annual confab looks ahead to 2018 and 2020 while looking back on Trump’s first year

On Nov. 16, the University of Virginia Center for Politics hosts the 19th annual American Democracy Conference in Charlottesville, VA. The conference features leading journalists and political experts discussing the upcoming 2018 midterm election cycle, the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency, and early thoughts on the 2020 presidential election. The conference is taking place […]

Democratic Domination in the Old Dominion

Danger signs abound for the GOP, with a few caveats

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s note: This piece is based on unofficial 2017 election returns. Tuesday represented the best non-presidential election night Democrats have had since 2006. They swept the statewide ticket in Virginia for the second election in a row, and they picked up the New Jersey governorship. They also won a crucial, majority-making state Senate election in […]

Primary Colors in Red

What are the prospects of a GOP purge? And could the president face his own troubles?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A Trump-Bannon move against Republican incumbents would not be unprecedented, but having widespread success would be… If President Trump actively campaigned against incumbents of his own party in primaries next year, it would be an unusual political occurrence. But it would not be without precedent. In fact, he wouldn’t even be the first ideologically flexible, […]

Underneath It All: Elections for the Virginia House of Delegates

The General Assembly’s lower chamber is also up for election on Nov. 7

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

While November’s political spotlight will shine brightest on the gubernatorial contest at the top of the Virginia ticket between former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie (R) and Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D), there will also be many interesting races down-ballot in the Old Dominion on Election Day. Not only will there be elections for […]

“This Is the House That Jack Built” Premieres

New documentary examines new and little-known stories about JFK

On Wednesday evening, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations hosted the premiere of their new documentary, This is the House that Jack Built, at the Library of Virginia in Richmond. Check your local listings for the documentary, which will begin airing on public television in mid-October. Directed by Paul Tait […]

New Poll: Some Americans Express Troubling Racial Attitudes Even as Majority Oppose White Supremacists

Survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos in conjunction with UVA Center for Politics measures racial sentiments in aftermath of August neo-Nazi rally in Charlottesville

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics finds that while there is relatively little national endorsement of neo-Nazis and white supremacists, there are troubling levels of support for certain racially-charged ideas and attitudes frequently expressed by extremist groups. The survey also found backing for keeping Confederate monuments […]

House 2018: Reichert Retirement Creates Big Democratic Opportunity

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The retirement of Rep. Dave Reichert (R, WA-8) on Wednesday from a swing district immediately transforms that district from a longshot Democratic pickup opportunity to one of their best chances to flip a GOP-held seat in the whole country. Accordingly, we’re moving it from Likely Republican all the way to Toss-up. Reichert, a former King […]

House 2018: How Big Is the Playing Field?

Democrats need a large one, because beating all the most vulnerable incumbents is unrealistic

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

If Democrats do have a chance to win the House next year, it might be because they translated a currently big field of announced candidates into credible opportunities to flip not just some of the top seats on their list of targets, but also some seats that, on paper, might not seem like they should […]