Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 House’ Category

Registering by Party: Where the Democrats and Republicans Are Ahead

, Senior Columnist

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In […]

A Half-Dozen House Ratings Changes in Favor of Democrats

And the fall of Joe Crowley in New York

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Rep. Joe Crowley’s (D, NY-14) primary loss represents a changing of the guard in a diverse district. It does not necessarily suggest we should expect a flood of additional Democratic primary losers. As it stands, only three incumbent House members have lost renomination so far this cycle (Crowley, plus […]

Two Ways of Thinking About Election Predictions and What They Tell Us About 2018

There are differences in method, accuracy, and probability between quantitative forecasting and ratings-based handicapping

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Two approaches to forecasting — one formally statistical, one rigorous yet flexible handicapping — produce different tools that we can use to evaluate the battle for control of the U.S. House in the 2018 midterms. — The Crystal Ball and other political handicappers use a “qualitative” method to generate […]

What Happened in the June 12 Primary

Maine experiments with ranked-choice voting, the Virginia GOP backs Stewart for Senate, and Sanford loses renomination in South Carolina

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: — Maine became the first state in modern U.S. history to use ranked-choice voting (also known as instant-runoff voting) in a statewide election. But this was not the first time that a state used a form of ranked voting or preferential voting. In the early 1900s, a number of states […]

Virginia’s Busiest Federal Primary Day in Modern History

The main races to watch on June 12 are the Republican contest for U.S. Senate and the Democrats’ six-way race in VA-10

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — With nine contested U.S. House primaries and one U.S. Senate primary, June 12 will be the busiest federal primary day in Virginia’s modern history, surpassing the seven total contests held in 2012 (one Senate, six House). — In the Republican primary for Senate, Prince William County Board of Supervisors […]

Democrats Seem to Pass the Top-Two Test

Party likely avoids shutouts in key races; plus, ratings changes and other updates from Tuesday night

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — While votes will not be finalized for weeks, Democrats seemingly avoided shutouts in competitive House races in California. — The initial results, while not necessarily predictive for the fall, show the potential for Democrats to make House gains in the Golden State. — Republicans, meanwhile, are pleased that they […]

A Post-Memorial Day Status Report

Where things stand in the battles for Congress and the governorships

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE — Both Democrats and Republicans have about equal odds of winning the House majority. — Republicans remain clearly favored in the battle for Senate control. — Democrats should start 2019 with at least a few more net governorships than they hold now. Checking in on 2018’s big picture In a […]

Clues From the Upcoming California Primary

Plus: Updates from Tuesday night’s primaries

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The California primary on June 5 is the most important election in the battle for the House prior to November. — Democrats are hoping to avoid getting shut out of November by the state’s top-two primary in multiple districts, and the results should provide a rough guide for the […]

The Democrats’ Drive for 25 in the House: An Update

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — This piece revisits a proposed path to a Democratic House majority we sketched out in early February. — Overall, the Democrats’ odds in the districts mentioned have largely but not universally gotten a little better. — The California primary on June 5 looms as the most important date […]

Mad as Hell: How Anger Diminishes Trust in Government

With politics increasingly defined by feelings of anger toward the opposing party, trust in government is bound to decline unless something changes drastically

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Over the past 60 years, trust in government has declined precipitously. Whereas high levels of trust in the national government were typical during the Eisenhower Administration, by 2016 only a fifth of Americans said they trusted the government “always” or “most of the time.” — Using a survey experiment […]

The Very Stable House Generic Ballot

Outside of a high in December, the Democrats have held a lead of roughly six to eight points

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — On average, Democrats led the generic ballot by 7.1 points over the past year. The monthly average ranged from 6.2 points in February 2018 to 10.1 points in December 2017. The December result was clearly an outlier, however, and may have led to a misinterpretation of more recent results […]

Ratings Changes: Senate, Governor, House

Both parties generally avoided bad choices in Tuesday’s primaries

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republican primary voters avoided a self-inflicted wound in West Virginia when disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship (R) finished third in the GOP Senate primary. — Much else went as expected Tuesday night. — Five ratings changes this week affect races for Senate, governor, and House, but most importantly broaden […]

Ohio’s Primary: The Heart of It All

The Buckeye State’s bellwether status may be fading, but a wild May and November to come reflect some major national trends

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The fissures emerging in both parties are evident in Ohio as the state holds its primary next week on May 8. — The likeliest matchup in the state’s open-seat gubernatorial race is a rematch of 2010’s battle for state attorney general, as former AG Richard Cordray (D)[1] and current […]

In the Battle for the House, the 2016 Presidential Results Don’t Tell the Whole Tale

Third-party showings, previous candidate performance also important in rating House races

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A surprising result in two special House elections last year, when Democrats ended up coming closer to winning an overlooked race in South Carolina than a nationally-watched contest in Georgia, showed an overreliance on past presidential election history to project House results. — When assessing the true Democratic targets […]

Raising the Ceiling, but Not the Floor, on Potential Democratic House Gains

Playing field widens even as odds of turnover don’t change

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The number of potentially vulnerable Republican seats is growing, and we’re adding an extra 10 GOP-held seats to the Likely Republican column this week. — All of these members remain solid favorites for reelection, but at the same time, many seem likely to face better-funded challengers than they are […]