Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 House’ Category

How’d we do?

Longstanding picks of a Democratic House, significant Democratic gubernatorial gains, and GOP Senate pan out

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It took a lot of Krazy Glue, but we think we pieced the Crystal Ball back together, reassembling after 2016 shattered us and just about every other prediction group. As of this writing, early Wednesday afternoon, and with many uncalled House races remaining, the real-time seat projections from both the New York Times and FiveThirtyEight […]

Final picks for 2018

Democrats in House; Republicans in Senate; Democrats big in gubernatorial races; be on guard for upsets

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Sorry, friends, but you are going to have to actually read this one. — Our full list of ratings changes is available here. Our best guesses for Tuesday The 2018 midterm has long been a study in contradictory signs. There is, for Republicans, the benefit of running at […]

Five days to go

Where we’re leaning in the House, Senate, and governors

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Our final picks are coming Monday. In the meantime, our longstanding overall assessment — Democrats favored in House, Republicans bigger favorites in Senate — remains in place. — Four ratings changes in the House. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating David Valadao (R, […]

How Republicans could hold the House

Higher turnout historically does not guide outcomes, and lack of 2016 GOP surge may limit 2018’s GOP decline

, Guest Columnists

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — There is no systematic relationship between the turnout rate and the Democratic Party’s (or the Republican Party’s) share of the two-party congressional vote. — Midterms often feature a decline for the presidential party after a surge in the House in the presidential year. But Republicans enjoyed no surge in […]

The House Bellwethers

Some of the places that have most consistently voted for the majority party in the House may see their streaks broken if Democrats win

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The longest running House bellwether is a rural, conservative portion of Ohio. — If Democrats win the House, that streak and some other House bellwether streaks will likely be snapped. — The newest bellwethers might be in the Philadelphia suburbs, Northeast Pennsylvania, and Upstate New York. The places that […]

A dozen days to go: Ratings changes in gubernatorial, House races

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The battles for the state governorships are getting more volatile as Election Day nears. We are moving three races, Kansas, Oregon, and South Dakota, to Toss-up. — Republican odds of holding the Senate are as good as ever. — The playing field continues to expand in the House. […]

Forecasting the Democratic State Legislative Wavelet of 2018

, Guest Columnist

  Editor’s Note: After showcasing a state legislative assessment from experts at the National Conference of State Legislatures a couple of weeks ago, we’re pleased to offer another look at those races, this week from Carl Klarner. His forecast suggests that Democrats are positioned to pick up several state legislative chambers this year. If you’re […]

The Drive for 25: An updated seat-by-seat analysis of the House

Democrats closing in on majority but it's not a sure thing

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A race-by-race analysis of Democratic House targets shows the party is close to winning the majority, but they do not have it put away, in our judgment, with Election Day less than three weeks away. — Barring a big, positive late change in the political environment in favor […]

Midterm Update: North Dakota goes to Leans Republican, giving the Republicans a clearer edge in the Senate

Dark red states going different directions in gubernatorial contests

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The North Dakota Senate race moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican, reinforcing what we’ve long described as a GOP edge in the race for the Senate. — The Democrats do have a path to the majority, but that path almost certainly involves winning at least one race we currently […]

Ratings Changes: House, Senate, and Governor

Democrats inching closer to magic number in House, poised to net several governorships; Senate battle murky as Kavanaugh effect uncertain

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  Editor’s Note: Before we begin this week, we just wanted to acknowledge our friend Geoffrey Skelley, our long-time Crystal Ball associate editor. Geoff started a new position this week with FiveThirtyEight. For nearly seven years, Geoffrey was an exceptionally valuable member of our team, and we will miss him tremendously. However, we are also […]

Ratings Changes: House and Governors

Affluent suburban seats looking dicier for GOP, but their numbers in the House are not all bad; Colorado, Michigan gubernatorial races shift to Democrats

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A slew of new House polling, mostly from the New York Times and Siena College, contains bright spots for both parties but also suggests a Democratic edge in the race for the House. — We have seven House ratings changes, all in favor of Democrats. — We also have […]

Keep on Keepin’ On: 2018 Incumbent Renomination Rates

Four incumbents lost primaries in the House, one in gubernatorial contests, and none in the Senate

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As a whole, incumbents won renomination in U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial nomination contests at a typical rate in 2018. In all, 100% of senators, 99% of representatives, and 95% of governors who sought renomination in Democratic or Republican primaries/conventions won renomination this cycle. — Just four members […]

Introduction: The 2018 Midterm Election Forecasts

, Guest Columnist

Editor’s Note: In an effort to provide as broad a view as possible to readers about different methods of forecasting the 2018 midterm election, we have been featuring models from respected political scientists that aim to project the net seat change in the U.S. House of Representatives. So far, we’ve published models from Crystal Ball […]

The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections

, Guest Columnist

The Seats-in-Trouble model of party seat change in national congressional elections (both on-year and midterms) is a hybrid election forecasting model. It combines the insights and comprehensive assessments of expert election analysts examining in depth the conditions of individual House and Senate contests with a rigorous statistical analysis of historical aggregate data of partisan seat […]

Congressional Forecasts for 2018: Structure-X Models

, Guest Columnists

We build here on our “Structure-X model,” successfully applied in 2014. We first generate a 2018 forecast from our classic structural model. Next, we adjust this forecast on the basis of expert judgments provided in Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. With respect to the first step, the structural model, we employ the following equation: […]