Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 Governor’ Category

Center for Politics Reveals Trailer for New John F. Kennedy Documentary

Sabato also calls upon President Trump to allow release of remaining JFK documents later this year

A trailer for the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ forthcoming documentary, This Is The House That Jack Built, is now available. The documentary is the latest collaboration between the Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations, which regularly partner to produce documentary films for public television on American politics and history. This Is The […]

The New Dominion: Virginia’s Ever-Changing Electoral Map

Examining presidential elections in the commonwealth from 1968 to 2016

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In 2008 Barack Obama carried Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to win the Old Dominion. Obama’s victory broke a run of 10 consecutive Republican victories in the commonwealth, and 13 of 14 going back to 1952. The 2008 presidential election started a new Democratic streak, […]

Democrats Start With Edge in Virginia Gubernatorial Race

Setting the scene after Northam, Gillespie capture nominations

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

There was one close race and one not-so close race in the gubernatorial primaries in Virginia on Tuesday, but the margins were the opposite of what most expected: Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) beat former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello (D) by about a dozen points in the closely-watched Democratic primary. Meanwhile, 2014 Senate nominee and […]

A Democratic Donnybrook in the Old Dominion?

Previewing the Virginia primary

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With the Virginia primary less than a week away, the eyes of the political world are now focused on the Old Dominion. Considering the early polling in New Jersey’s gubernatorial general election contest, where Phil Murphy (D) starts as the favorite over Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) after both won their respective party nominations on […]

Stepping Up: How Governors Who Have Succeeded to the Top Job Have Performed Over the Years

2018 could see a number of successor governors running for full terms in office

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Monday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) moved to end debate on the nomination of Gov. Terry Branstad (R-IA) as the next U.S. ambassador to China. While the exact timeline is uncertain — Democrats could try to stall the appointment — Branstad’s confirmation for the diplomatic post is expected very soon. Upon becoming ambassador, […]

Initial 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings

Competitive races abound as GOP plays defense in many open seats

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Those looking for electoral drama in the 2018 cycle should pay attention to the 38 gubernatorial races being held this year and next. In our initial ratings of these contests, more than half of them — 20 of 38 — start in the competitive Toss-up or Leans Republican/Democratic categories. That includes a whopping 10 Toss-ups: […]

Excerpt From Our New Book, Trumped: Polling in the 2016 Election and What It Means Going Forward

Examining the implications for public opinion surveys beyond the horse race

  Dear Readers: Our new book on 2016’s remarkable election, Trumped, is now available. Trumped features some of the nation’s sharpest political reporters and analysts breaking down an election that truly broke all the rules. The following is taken from Chapter 10 of the book, authored by Ariel Edwards-Levy and Natalie Jackson of Huffington Post, […]

Rooting for Failure

Democrats use a familiar playbook in the Trump era

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It’s been nearly a week since the Republican plan to dramatically alter the Affordable Care Act died without a vote in the House of Representatives. It’s 84 weeks until the next national election, the 2018 midterm. So saying anything with confidence about how, if at all, the GOP’s failure to pass its American Health Care […]

How Midterms Do (and Do Not) Differ From Presidential Elections

What recent history tells us about the likely size and makeup of next year’s electorate

, UVA Center for Politics

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball is taking off next week for the University of Virginia’s spring recess. We’ll be back on Thursday, March 16. — The Editors With politicos everywhere turning their eyes to the still-distant 2018 midterm election, we thought it would be useful to review some of the basic differences and similarities between […]

2018 Governors: The Battle Lines for Drawing the Lines

Republicans retain a big redistricting advantage as 2020 census looms, but Democrats have opportunities to chip away at that power

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Given the Democrats’ poor down-ballot performances in the Obama years, and the Republican dominance of redistricting following the GOP’s success in the 2010 midterm, it’s somewhat fitting that arguably the Democrats’ most marquee victory in 2016 will not help them in the redistricting battles to come after the 2020 census. Despite losing the presidency and […]

Virginia 2017, Part Two: The Republicans

Gillespie gets another statewide shot in an unusually competitive Old Dominion primary season

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Until former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) shook up the Democratic nomination contest in early January, the Republican field had generated most of the early buzz in Virginia’s 2017 gubernatorial race. But while some eyes have turned to the brewing battle between Perriello and Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D), there is still plenty to discuss on […]

An Inexperienced Congress and Cabinet

Highlights from our friend Bruce Mehlman’s latest presentation

Dear Readers: Several times a year, Bruce Mehlman releases a fascinating PowerPoint presentation filled with interesting nuggets about American politics and government. Mehlman, a Republican lobbyist with the bipartisan firm Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas, is a University of Virginia Law School graduate and friend of the Crystal Ball. Because we get so much out […]

2018 Governors: Overextended Republicans Seek to Thwart History

And watch out for fresh faces

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

When President-elect Donald Trump takes the oath of office eight days from now, he will be completing a remarkable journey, going from private citizen to the highest elected office in the nation without any elected stop in between. But while Trump is, to put it mildly, a unique figure in presidential politics, his journey is […]

Virginia 2017, Part One: The Democrats

A surprising entry into the Democratic gubernatorial field upends the favorite’s coronation

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

To the delight of Virginia political junkies, the Old Dominion has a notable election every November, with federal contests in even-numbers years and state elections in odd-numbered ones. So it’s always “on to the next one,” with eyes now turning to the state’s 2017 gubernatorial election to succeed Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D). Virginia is unique […]

2017: At the Dawn of the Age of Trump

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

It’s already clear that the very strange political year of 2016 is bleeding over into the New Year. How could it be otherwise? President-elect Donald Trump, loved and hated by about equal numbers of Americans, continues to ignore or break with convention in a wide variety of areas. Just as the normal rules didn’t apply […]