Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

Why Democratic Unity Could Be Easier to Achieve This Time: Donald Trump and Barack Obama

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With only a few weeks left in the 2016 primary campaign, a lot of liberal pundits and Democratic Party leaders are getting very nervous about the outlook for the general election. To almost everyone’s surprise, Donald Trump has secured the Republican presidential nomination while Hillary Clinton is still locked in a contentious battle with Bernie […]

Libertarians Should Have Their Best Presidential Election Ever

But that is not necessarily saying much

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

While presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has seemingly done a better-than-expected job of uniting the Republican rank-and-file after dispatching his presidential rivals, he continues to face elite opposition from some GOP leaders and opinion-makers. Rumors of a third-party presidential bid designed to give #NeverTrump Republicans an option continue even if, frankly, that seems less […]

The Veepstakes, Part Two: Trump’s Temptation

A candidate who prefers flash might be better off playing it safe

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

This is the second of a two-part series analyzing the Democratic and Republican vice presidential possibilities. This week, we examine presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump’s considerations and options. Last week, we looked at Hillary Clinton’s choices on the Democratic side. — The Editors Heading into the 2014 National Football League draft, rumors were swirling that […]

The Running Mate Calculus

It's not surprising that Trump's process looks a lot less conventional than Clinton's

, Guest Columnist

Now that the nominations of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump appear inevitable, attention turns, as it always does at this time, to the vice presidential selections. This year presents the fifth time in 40 years that both parties will select new running mates. Although Trump’s recent victories have eliminated the prospect of a brokered Republican […]

High Primary Turnouts: Any Clues for the Fall?

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s note: This is the first of two editions of the Crystal Ball this week. While we typically only publish once a week, this is an extraordinary political year and we hope to provide additional commentary and analysis throughout the rest of the cycle as warranted. In the piece below, Senior Columnist Rhodes Cook provides […]

Vice Presidential Selection: How Much Does It Matter This Year?

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

When a presidential campaign wants to signal that it is turning from the nomination clash to the general election, “sources close to the campaign” make it known the Veep search has begun. Right on schedule, as Donald Trump has become the Republican nominee-presumptive and Hillary Clinton has maintained an unassailable mathematical lead on the Democratic […]

The Veepstakes, Part One: Clinton’s Choices

Senate balance of power could play a role

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

This is the first of a two-part series analyzing the Democratic and Republican vice presidential possibilities. This week, we’ll look at likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s choices, and then we’ll assess presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump’s options next week. — The Editors “First, do no harm” The Hippocratic Oath is the prime directive for doctors, […]

The Fall Outlook: Fear and Loathing on the 2016 Campaign Trail

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

“The whole framework of the presidency is getting out of hand. It’s come to the point where you almost can’t run unless you can cause people to salivate and whip on each other with big sticks. You almost have to be a rock star to get the kind of fever you need to survive in […]

Indiana: #Nevertrump’s Last Stand?

Cruz hopes for Wisconsin repeat in a state that’s more open to voting Trump

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

One could not be blamed for looking at the Republican primary results over the past 10 days and questioning how someone could stop Donald Trump from being the Republican nominee. But a look at the delegate math suggests that the race is not over yet. As we laid out after New York, the roadmap to […]

Democratic Forecast Model Beats the Polls

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Late last week, the Crystal Ball published a simple forecasting model that I created to try to predict the results of the Democratic primary. The model is based on three predictors — region (South versus North), African-American percentage of primary voters in 2008, and Democratic percentage of primary voters in 2008 — and it outperformed […]

Model Shows Clinton as Favorite in Most of Tuesday’s Primaries

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Based on a slightly revised version of a model I created in advance of the March 15 Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton appears to be a solid favorite in Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, as well as a marginal favorite in Connecticut. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders appears to be a favorite in Rhode Island. This model uses three […]

Primaries Versus Caucuses: The Score So Far in 2016

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Unfair! Rigged! Corrupt! We’re hearing a lot of harsh adjectives being applied to aspects of the presidential nominating system this year — from “double-agent” delegate placement on the Republican side that may frustrate the plurality of GOP voters, to the establishment-based superdelegates (fully 15% of the convention, though down from 19% in 2008) on the […]

How Trump Could Win the Republican Nomination in Five (Not-So) Easy Steps

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Let’s get the easy part out of the way first. Bernie Sanders went into the New York Democratic primary with essentially no path to catching Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, and he leaves it with even less of one after Clinton’s victory. Despite some national polls showing the race effectively […]

House 2016: How a Democratic Wave Could Happen

More than a dozen rating changes, almost all favoring Democrats

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Pennsylvania’s Seventh Congressional District, which forms a misshapen U linking Greater Philadelphia in the east to the outskirts of Lancaster and Reading to its west and north, provides a vivid example of the challenges Democrats face on the current U.S. House map. It is a district that Democrats won in 2006 in their wave year, […]

Higher Voter Turnout Alone Is Unlikely to Change the Outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

“Today, roughly half of born-again Christians aren’t voting. They’re staying home. Imagine instead millions of people of faith all across America coming out to the polls and voting our values.” — Ted Cruz in his presidential campaign announcement speech at Liberty University on March 23, 2015. “One of the real advantages, I think, of me winning […]