Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

Why This Scandal Won’t Hurt Hillary

History shows us that presidential candidates tend to weather controversy better than senators and congressmen

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he explores how scandals haven’t often been top-tier issues in presidential general elections, something to keep in mind in light of the recent focus on Hillary Clinton’s e-mails. A version of this article originally appeared in Politico […]

The Political and Demographic Challenges of the 2016 Presidential Election

, Guest Columnist

It is quite interesting to speculate about the 2016 presidential nomination battles and especially potential general election winners and losers. But, it might be best for all of us to keep our powder dry. Current conventional wisdom has it that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and any of a gaggle of contenders will […]

Now Available: the Surge, the Center for Politics’ New Book Analyzing the 2014 and 2016 Elections

The Surge, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ postmortem of the 2014 midterms and preview of the 2016 presidential election, is now available. Edited by Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and Sabato’s Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley and published by Rowman and Littlefield, The Surge: 2014’s Big GOP Win […]

2016 President Update: Clinton Isn’t Going Anywhere…Yet

On the Republican side, Christie’s moving in the wrong direction

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Hillary Clinton went before cameras and reporters at the United Nations last week to address the ongoing controversy over her use of a private email system during her time as secretary of state. She was terse, combative, and essentially told the American people to “trust her” when she says that she didn’t do anything wrong […]

Book Excerpt From the Surge: Through a Glass Darkly

The outlook for the 2016 presidential election

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It’s spring break at the University of Virginia, and we want to supplement your beach reading — or replace a trashy novel — with sophisticated fare that will impress your friends. So this week we present an excerpt of Alan Abramowitz’s concluding chapter in The Surge, the U.Va. Center for Politics’ new book about the […]

Coattails and Correlation

Presidential and Senate results should track closely in 2016 -- and that’s nothing new

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Few political observers will be surprised that the correlation between presidential and Senate results has been increasing over the last few presidential election cycles. That is, during a presidential election year, the Senate race in state A has increasingly tended to have a similar outcome to the presidential result in state A. Other analysts have […]

Religion in Politics: A Look at Data From the New American Values Atlas

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Wednesday, the Public Religion Research Institute released its new American Values Atlas. It is full of information regarding the American public’s religious identity, political views on hot-button issues such as abortion and immigration, and demographic information for regions, states, and major metropolitan areas. This atlas should prove to be a highly useful resource, especially […]

Why Outside Spending Is Overrated

Lessons from the 2014 Senate Elections

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Koch brothers and their network of wealthy conservative donors recently announced that they intend to spend almost $900 million on the 2016 elections. This level of spending by a group operating independently of any candidate or political party would be unprecedented in American politics. In fact, it would exceed the combined spending by the […]

The Surge: Our Book on 2014 & 2016 Is Available for Pre-Order

The Surge, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ postmortem of the 2014 midterms and preview of the 2016 presidential election, is now available for pre-order. Edited by Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and Sabato’s Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley and published by Rowman and Littlefield, The Surge: 2014’s Big […]

The Era of Competition: How 2016 Could Set a Presidential Record

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The United States is in the midst of an era of great competitiveness in presidential contests. Not once in the last seven presidential elections has a party won more than 55% or less than 45% of the two-party vote. In a recent article for Politico Magazine, the Crystal Ball team argued that fundamentals, recent history, […]

A Major Reshuffling of the Republican Presidential Deck

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

For nearly two years we’ve been ranking the GOP presidential contenders, and we’ve only had two names in the No. 1 spot. Now, in our latest update, those two are together, and alone, at the top. The new first tier is Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida, and Scott Walker, the governor of Wisconsin. […]

Who Starts With an Edge in 2016?

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he and the rest of the Crystal Ball team provide a very early outlook for the 2016 presidential election. — The Editors The 2016 presidential election is going to resemble Thomas Hobbes’ famous description of the natural […]

For Republicans, a 2016 Tie Is a Win

GOP virtually guaranteed to hold edge in event of deadlocked Electoral College

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, elected to a third term earlier this month, often notes that the presidential cycle is harder for his party than midterms because the electorate is more diverse and Democratic. “For us to win a presidential election, we have to be just about perfect, and the Democrats have to be […]

Updated 2020 Reapportionment Projections

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

At the end of 2014, the Census Bureau released its 2014 population estimates. This provides new fodder for political geeks when looking ahead to the 2020 census and its major political impact: congressional reapportionment. Unfortunately, the Census Bureau doesn’t release state-level population projections anymore, just national estimates up to the year 2060, leaving it to […]

Obama’s Approval Rating and the Outlook for the 2016 Presidential Election

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With the 2014 midterm election in the rearview mirror, the attention of pundits and political prognosticators has quickly shifted to the outlook for the 2016 presidential election. On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State, First Lady, and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton appears to be the prohibitive favorite to emerge as the nominee. On the […]