Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

Republicans 2016: Two Down, 14 to Go

Making sense of a (slowly) shrinking GOP field

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Whatever else it is, the Republican presidential contest has become a full employment act for reporters and analysts. With the largest (though gradually shrinking) field of any major party in U.S. history and a Republican electorate that appears mad as hell and isn’t going to take it anymore, the GOP caravan is careening down the […]

The Fall of Scott Walker

How the man who could have been both outsider and insider became neither

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

News broke Monday afternoon that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is dropping out of the Republican presidential race. Walker’s star had clearly been fading — a recent CNN national poll showed practically nonexistent national support. Walker is someone we identified early as a major presidential contender, and for a while, he appeared to be just that. […]

The Reagan Rumble

, U.Va. Center for Politics

With a Wednesday night debate, we would have been remiss to send you a Crystal Ball on Thursday morning without a reaction. Here are some quick thoughts from the three of us on what we’re calling “The Reagan Rumble.” We’ll have a lot more to say on the state of the GOP race next week. […]

No Drama Obama

The president’s approval rating has been the steadiest in modern history

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

President Obama’s middling job approval rating has been quite steady over the last few months, devoid of much movement outside of the relatively subtle shifts seen from poll to poll. This is nothing new: Based on Gallup’s polling, Barack Obama’s approval rating has the smallest standard deviation of any modern president. That is, Americans’ view […]

Early Thoughts on 2016’s Presidential and Down-Ballot Races

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is a regular contributor to Politico Magazine, and this week he and the Crystal Ball team offer snippets and links to a two-part series that takes an early look at the 2016 presidential and down-ballot pictures. The first article, which appeared in Politico Magazine on Sept. 7, […]

The Real Presidential Deadlines

Late-entering candidates must consider fast-approaching filing dates

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The presidential fields on both sides are so much in flux that rumors of new candidates entering the race continue. For the Democrats, the whispers about Vice President Joe Biden making a late charge into the fray have become roars. Biden made a campaign-style appearance at a Labor Day rally in Pittsburgh and otherwise seems […]

Donald Trump: History Has Not Been Kind to Businessmen-Turned-Presidents

, Guest Columnist

The many factors behind Donald Trump’s surge to the top of Republican polls are hardly new. There is broad dissatisfaction and distrust of “professional politicians” and with what is widely perceived to be an incompetent Washington that is in the pocket of wealthy and narrow-minded corporate interests. Individually, there is economic insecurity, and collectively a […]

The Populist Revolt Against Brain-Dead Politics

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Take a deep breath. It won’t help you understand what’s happening in the contest for the presidency, but it won’t hurt either. By contrast, many media analyses of the state of the race have reached the breathless level. Supposedly, there’s never been anyone like Donald Trump on the political scene. In fact, there’s a long […]

Democrats 2016: The Primary Map Still Favors Clinton

Despite myriad problems, demography and geography are possibly the Democratic frontrunner’s best friends

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been under siege for months as additional revelations and developments regarding her use of a private email account continue to drip out. Last week, the Crystal Ball explored what might happen should Clinton drop out of the Democratic primary or, as the rumors swirl about the possibility, if […]

Democrats 2016: Biden His Time

If there’s a Clinton crash, the vice president might not be the only one who exploits it

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It’s time to ask a question, the answer to which we do not know: Will former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s private email server scandal do fatal damage to her campaign? Over the past few months it’s become clearer that the questions surrounding Clinton’s emails — and a corresponding flood of negative press that she […]

Republicans 2016: What to Do With the Donald?

Handicapping a frontrunner who (almost certainly) cannot win

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Whatever you think of him, Donald Trump is a stick of dynamite thrown into the presidential pond. All the boats have been rocked, and given Trump’s potential for more explosiveness, the political waters show little sign of settling down anytime soon. Donald Trump is so special that we’ve created a category (and perhaps a word) […]

The Angry American Voter

, Emory University

As Republicans take the stage in Cleveland for their first presidential primary debate tonight — with Donald Trump in the middle of it — one thing is already abundantly clear: A lot of voters are angry. Very angry. In fact, a lot of voters have been angry for some time. The phenomenon that we call […]

Kicking Off the Debate Season

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Welcome to Debate Day! Finally, voters and analysts will get to see one party’s field (or at least, some of it) take the stage to duke it out in primetime. The main GOP debate participant list is set, as is that of the warm-up confab for the seven Republicans who failed to make the top […]

Eight Decades of Debate

A brief history of presidential primary clashes

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Next week begins what has become a regular presidential primary tradition: the debates. As a way of previewing them, we decided to look back at the history of primary debates. Readers may be surprised to learn that primary debates existed before the advent of televised general election debates in 1960. Less surprising is that the […]

The Debates and the Bushes

Recent articles in Politico Magazine look at two aspects of the 2016 Republican presidential race

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is a regular contributor to Politico Magazine, and this week we offer a snippet and link to his two most recent pieces for the publication. The first article, which appeared in Politico Magazine on July 16, 2015, offers a more inclusive Republican debate format compared to the […]