Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

The Kennedy Half Century Now Available in Paperback

MOOC also returns with new lessons

Available now: The Kennedy Half Century in paperback, featuring new interviews, scientific studies, and empirical data. Among the new material contained in the paperback edition: A well-placed CIA employee reveals what really happened inside agency headquarters on Nov. 22, 1963. New analysis that further demonstrates the unreliability of the police Dictabelt audio evidence from Nov. […]

“Bombs Away” Tackles Lbj, Goldwater and 1964 Election

Ushered in age of negative campaign ads, highlighted by “Daisy” spot

Marking the 50th anniversary of the groundbreaking 1964 presidential campaign, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations have released the first trailer for their latest documentary, Bombs Away: LBJ, Goldwater and the 1964 Campaign that Changed It All. Scheduled for nationwide and international release later this fall, the one-hour documentary looks […]

2016 Presidential Update: For Republicans, a Vacancy at the Top

GOP field features long list but no obvious frontrunner

, U.Va. Center for Politics

It’s lonely at the top of the Republican field — like, “top of Mt. Everest” lonely. In our latest shuffle of the 2016 Crystal Ball presidential outlook, we’ve decided that the Republican first tier is…empty. Our Republican friends might object, but deep down, we think they would be hard-pressed to argue for any single name […]

False Hope: Why Libertarians Won’t Help Republicans Win the Youth Vote

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Republican Party has a major problem with young voters. According to national exit polls, the GOP has lost the under-30 vote by a wide margin in every election since 2004. In 2012, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by a whopping 23 percentage points among 18-29 year olds. Romney’s deficit among young voters was responsible […]

Iowa Survives

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

While potential presidential candidates are just beginning to jockey for pole position for 2016, there has already been one clear winner: the state of Iowa. Its precinct caucuses have retained the leadoff spot in the next nominating cycle in spite of one of the most embarrassing vote counts in modern political history two years ago […]

Do Republicans Need a Frankencandidate?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he explores the tough choices the eventual Republican nominee may have to make in order to increase the GOP’s chances in 2016. — The Editors Did you ever see the documentary A Perfect Candidate? It was about […]

Americans Are Politically Divided and Our Feelings Toward the Parties Show It

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

How politically divided are ordinary Americans? The recent release of a report on polarization in public opinion by the Pew Research Center has reignited a debate among journalists and academics about the depth of the divisions between supporters of the two major parties. One of the key findings of the report is that supporters of […]

Picking Your Primary Poison

As Herbert Hoover discovered, meddling in primaries can backfire

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Analysts are noticing the Democrats’ efforts to meddle in Republican primaries. In a Wall Street Journal article from last month, Janet Hook writes “Democrats increasingly are running ads against GOP candidates even before they win their party’s nomination. By attacking GOP candidates while they are still embroiled in a primary election campaign, some Democrats have […]

Rebutting Early Overanalysis of Potential Democratic Vice Presidential Field

, Guest Columnist

If history is a guide, the 2016 Democratic vice presidential candidate won’t be designated for almost 27 months. That reality didn’t prevent vice presidential speculation from breaking out in a big way in response to President Obama’s recent nomination of San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro to be Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Some immediately […]

Mcdaniel’s ‘Friends and Neighbors’

The fallout from Tuesday’s primaries

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In his classic book Southern Politics in State and Nation, V.O. Key Jr. wrote about the importance of “friends and neighbors” in one-party southern elections. More than half a century after the book was written, strength at home powered yet another Deep South candidate. Tuesday night featured about as dramatic a race as we’ve seen […]

Barack Obama and Bill Clinton: Complementary Strengths

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Democrats can use all the assets they can find as they approach a midterm election that grows increasingly challenging. The polls are daunting. The electoral map for both the Senate and House is unfavorable. And history is rarely kind to the president’s party in midterm voting. But the Democrats have two significant assets in […]

The Politics of White House Firings

Would giving Shinseki the axe be good for Obama's poll numbers?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. In light of the recent scandal with the Veterans Affairs health system, this week he looks back at presidential firings to see if they actually proved beneficial to a president’s job approval rating. In the piece, we listed 35 […]

Nationalization of Senate Elections Poses Challenge to Democrats in 2014

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Democrats face several challenges in trying to maintain their majority in the U.S. Senate in the 2014 midterm election. In addition to the normal tendency of the president’s party to lose seats in midterm elections, Democrats are defending 21 of the 36 seats that are up this year including seven seats in states that were […]

Are Republicans Really Doomed Demographically?

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Much of the debate about elections today revolves around the “Emerging Democratic Majority” thesis, taken from the 2002 book of the same name. The thesis is pretty straightforward: Because of demographic changes, the GOP is on a path toward irrelevance unless it can remake itself and appeal to the rising electorate. The theory has congealed […]

The Minimal Class Divide in American Politics

Why Growing Economic Inequality Does Not Explain Partisan Polarization

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

How deep is the class divide in American politics today? According to some scholars and pundits, it is very deep indeed. In a recent post on the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, Larry Bartels of Vanderbilt University, the author of Unequal Democracy and a highly regarded public opinion scholar, presented evidence from a multi-nation public […]