Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

Indiana: #Nevertrump’s Last Stand?

Cruz hopes for Wisconsin repeat in a state that’s more open to voting Trump

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

One could not be blamed for looking at the Republican primary results over the past 10 days and questioning how someone could stop Donald Trump from being the Republican nominee. But a look at the delegate math suggests that the race is not over yet. As we laid out after New York, the roadmap to […]

Democratic Forecast Model Beats the Polls

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Late last week, the Crystal Ball published a simple forecasting model that I created to try to predict the results of the Democratic primary. The model is based on three predictors — region (South versus North), African-American percentage of primary voters in 2008, and Democratic percentage of primary voters in 2008 — and it outperformed […]

Model Shows Clinton as Favorite in Most of Tuesday’s Primaries

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Based on a slightly revised version of a model I created in advance of the March 15 Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton appears to be a solid favorite in Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, as well as a marginal favorite in Connecticut. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders appears to be a favorite in Rhode Island. This model uses three […]

Primaries Versus Caucuses: The Score So Far in 2016

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Unfair! Rigged! Corrupt! We’re hearing a lot of harsh adjectives being applied to aspects of the presidential nominating system this year — from “double-agent” delegate placement on the Republican side that may frustrate the plurality of GOP voters, to the establishment-based superdelegates (fully 15% of the convention, though down from 19% in 2008) on the […]

How Trump Could Win the Republican Nomination in Five (Not-So) Easy Steps

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Let’s get the easy part out of the way first. Bernie Sanders went into the New York Democratic primary with essentially no path to catching Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, and he leaves it with even less of one after Clinton’s victory. Despite some national polls showing the race effectively […]

House 2016: How a Democratic Wave Could Happen

More than a dozen rating changes, almost all favoring Democrats

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Pennsylvania’s Seventh Congressional District, which forms a misshapen U linking Greater Philadelphia in the east to the outskirts of Lancaster and Reading to its west and north, provides a vivid example of the challenges Democrats face on the current U.S. House map. It is a district that Democrats won in 2006 in their wave year, […]

Higher Voter Turnout Alone Is Unlikely to Change the Outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

“Today, roughly half of born-again Christians aren’t voting. They’re staying home. Imagine instead millions of people of faith all across America coming out to the polls and voting our values.” — Ted Cruz in his presidential campaign announcement speech at Liberty University on March 23, 2015. “One of the real advantages, I think, of me winning […]

Senate/Governor 2016: Several Ratings Move Toward Democrats

Will 2016’s presidential coattails be long or short?

When you look at the big picture of presidential elections, and you try to discern the connection between the White House contest and the 34 Senate elections on the same ballot, it becomes obvious there are two types of years. The first type we might call “disjointed.” Voters seem to be separating their judgments about […]

On (From) Wisconsin

Badger State voters opt to prolong both parties’ nominating contests

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Wisconsin’s state motto is “Forward.” On Tuesday night, the Badger State’s voters uttered it as a command to both parties’ nominating contests. Instead of voting to bring the nominating season closer to a conclusion by backing Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, the two current leaders, Wisconsin strongly supported Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz, voting to […]

The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters

It’s a long way to November, but for the moment the GOP is an underdog

We live in a post-factual era. Thanks to the Internet and social media, which mix informed and uninformed views in equal measure, the old rule — that people are entitled to their own opinions but not their own set of facts — no longer applies. Somewhere in cyberspace, you can now find blogs and treatises […]

The Presidential Primary Season: Watching Wisconsin

Plus, why Sanders’ big weekend doesn’t change the Democratic calculus

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The battle between Donald Trump and his opponents within the GOP has moved to Wisconsin, and the stakes couldn’t be much higher: Based on our gaming out of delegate math last week, Trump may need a statewide win in the Badger State to stay on course for potentially winning a delegate majority. Should anti-Trump forces […]

Assessing Trump’s Path to 1,237

A look at the remaining contests shows how he could get there

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

About a month ago, after Donald Trump won the South Carolina primary and all of its delegates, we headlined a piece “The Hour is Growing Late to Stop Trump.” Well, the hour has grown later, and we have to ask the question: Has Trump been stopped? Certainly not. And a look ahead at the remaining […]

So, Do You Actually Want to Be Vice President?

The factors potential running mates should consider before taking the plunge

, Guest Columnist

Although the presidential races in both parties have not been resolved, speculation has already begun regarding vice presidential nominees. Whereas John Kasich and Ted Cruz, like almost every other presidential candidate historically, dismiss any interest in the vice presidency, Ben Carson won’t rule out being Donald Trump’s vice president, Cruz’s camp has apparently made overtures […]

Titanic Tuesday: Trump Leads but Doesn’t Finish the Job

Clinton back on track with a strong night

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Donald Trump could have generated unstoppable momentum had he won both Ohio and Florida. But now it’s clear to everyone that this will go right through June 7, the end of the Republican primary season. Most observers appear to think that the Republicans are headed for a contested convention now, because with Kasich’s win in […]

The Ball of Confusion That Was 1968

Comparisons between that tumultuous year and 2016 abound

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Given what has been unfolding in the 2016 campaign, this might be a good time for you to view, or view again, the UVA Center for Politics’ latest documentary, Ball of Confusion. It aired on PBS stations across the nation several months ago, and now we have uploaded it to YouTube (Part 1, Part 2, […]