Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

Do Debates Matter?

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This article is partially an update of a piece we published in 2012 discussing the impact of presidential debates. To slightly modify Ronald Reagan’s famous rejoinder to Jimmy Carter in their single debate in 1980 (“There you go again”), here we go again — into the debate season. There has been at least […]

At the Beginning: The Debates of 1960

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

There are a lot of ways to tell you’re getting old, and one is the realization that you have watched every presidential general election debate in U.S. history. The saving grace is that the history is short, with TV debates only beginning in 1960. And truth be told, I was just eight years old when […]

Seeing the Forest for the Trees: Presidential Election Forecasts and the Fundamentals

, Guest Columnist

Dear Readers: Over the past couple of months, we’ve been running a series on election forecasting models. James E. Campbell, who has been compiling these forecasts for us, offers some concluding thoughts on the series below. — The Editors Modern presidential election campaigns generate a massive amount of news. This has never been more true […]

The Trump Surge

Or is it a Clinton Fallback?

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

And then, everything changed. Well, not everything, but enough to generate the first major revision in our electoral map, and all of it is in Donald Trump’s direction for now. Let us make our view perfectly clear: We still believe that Hillary Clinton is more likely than Trump to win the election, and she still […]

The Fundamentals: Where Are We in This Strange Race for President?

And can Trump breach Fortress Obama?

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Every presidential election is different, but nobody’s going to tell us that this one isn’t notably different from any other in the modern period. It’s not just that the two major-party candidates are so disliked and unpopular with much of the public. While Donald Trump’s numbers are no better and sometimes worse, Hillary Clinton’s unfavorables […]

The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections, Part 5

Dear Readers: This is the final posting in a series of political science forecasts for the 2016 races for the White House and Congress. James E. Campbell, author of the new book Polarized: Making Sense of a Divided America, has assembled presidential and congressional forecasts from eight different individuals and/or teams this year. They were […]

The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections, Part 4

Dear Readers: This is the latest in a series of political science forecasts for the 2016 races for the White House and Congress. We’ll be featuring forecasts from nine different individuals and/or teams this year, which James E. Campbell is assembling as part of a project for PS: Political Science and Politics that we are […]

The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections, Part 3

Dear Readers: This is the latest in a series of political science forecasts for the 2016 races for the White House and Congress. We’ll be featuring forecasts from nine different individuals and/or teams this year, which James E. Campbell is assembling as part of a project for PS: Political Science and Politics that we are […]

Clinton Rises to 348 Electoral Votes, Trump Drops to 190

Clinton now above 270 Safe or Likely Democratic electoral votes for the first time

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

New Hampshire may just have four electoral votes, but it’s important. If you doubt it, just ask any Granite State citizens, and they’ll tell you about their first-in-the-nation primary. Even that quartet of electoral votes can matter; in 2000, if Al Gore had just won them (and without Ralph Nader on the ballot, he probably […]

The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections, Part 2

Dear Readers: This is the latest in a series of political science forecasts for the 2016 races for the White House and Congress. We’ll be featuring forecasts from nine different individuals and/or teams this year, which James E. Campbell is assembling as part of a project for PS: Political Science and Politics that we are […]

The 35th Senate Seat on the Ballot: Virginia

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Everyone is rightly focused on the 34 Senate seats already on the ballot this fall. But there is actually a 35th, the Class I Senate seat currently held by Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine. Of the four major-party candidates for national office, only one contender holds a position whose term will not be finished […]

Forecasting the 2016 Presidential Election: Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump?

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear readers: We’re pleased this week to continue our series on the political science forecasts of the presidential election with a piece from Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz on his Time for Change model. Interestingly, the model shows Donald Trump as a small favorite in the presidential election. As you’ll read, Abramowitz throws some […]

The Electoral College: Pennsylvania Moves Toward Clinton

Key to Trump's chances, the Keystone State looks less promising for him

, Managing Editor, UVA Center for Politics

While there is some suggestion that Pennsylvania might be slowly trending Republican, and while it has a lot of the white, working-class voters that Donald Trump is targeting, recent polling has suggested that Hillary Clinton is obviously the favorite there right now. She leads Trump by close to seven-to-nine points in Keystone State polling averages, […]

Goldwater and Trump: Not Two Peas in a Pod

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Have you noticed all the comparisons on TV and in print between the Barry Goldwater campaign of 1964 and the Donald Trump campaign of 2016? It’s true both Goldwater was, and Trump is, the Republican nominee for president. And both could be fairly termed insurgent winners and highly controversial candidates. Yet the similarities are being […]

Hanging Tough

Why we've made only minor changes to our Electoral College ratings since March

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

On March 31, we released our first general election map of the Electoral College. With our self-imposed rule of permitting no cop-out “toss-ups” — a rule we’ll try to hold to as we handicap this year’s Electoral College map — our bottom-line totals were 347 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 191 for Donald Trump. […]