Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

With 19 Days to Go, Clinton’s Lead Is Bigger Than Ever

Arizona leans HRC; McMullin rises in the west; dark red states take on lighter hue

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The mist is lifting from the map of the United States and the moment of clarity for the 2016 general election campaign has arrived. Yes, there is still uncertainty about some states in the Electoral College. But nearly all of it comes in states that Mitt Romney won in 2012 or a couple of Barack […]

Could Johnson Voters Save the Republican Senate Majority?

Also, don’t forget about Florida

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The watchword for congressional races in a presidential year is coattails, specifically in this election negative coattails from Donald Trump. In the Senate, a number of GOP incumbents are hoping they can run just far enough ahead of their presidential standard bearer to survive. But this is a perilous place to be. As we discussed […]

Mixed Signals in the Race for the House

Could Trump ruin what has otherwise been a decent Republican cycle?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

This may be a particularly bad time to write an update on the House. But we’re going to do so anyway, if only to explain why that is. Mainly, it’s because we’re in a very hazy period in the battle for control of the lower chamber — a battle that, it should be noted, the […]

President 2016: Georgia Is Back in Play

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Donald Trump’s apparent slide in the polls is continuing, and with that more states seem to be coming into play. We already moved heavily Republican Utah to Leans Republican earlier this week, a decision that was backed up by a recent Deseret News poll showing Clinton and Trump tied at 26% apiece, with independent Republican […]

The Danger of the Political Limelight

The presidential nominee getting more of the public’s attention tends to fare worse in the polls

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Back in mid-September, we noted that there appeared to be at least a limited negative (or inverse) relationship between the amount of attention one presidential nominee was garnering from the public relative to the other nominee and that candidate’s position in the polls. In short, the candidate getting more coverage tended to see a decline […]

Clinton Adds to Her Electoral College Edge

Debate probably only reinforces the new status quo

, UVA Center for Politics

In the broad sweep of U.S. history, very occasionally one of the major parties simply disqualifies itself from the contest to win the White House by nominating an unelectable, non-mainstream candidate. We suspect that there will never be a better example than Donald Trump. The Republican Party chose a deeply divisive figure — one not […]

Clinton’s Electoral College Lead Regenerates

She’s back over 300 electoral votes after a post-debate polling boon

, UVA Center for Politics

Programming note: We’ll release a special Crystal Ball Sunday night with a recap of the second presidential debate. As we await the second debate, it’s obvious that Hillary Clinton got a bounce from the first debate and has re-established a clear lead in the presidential race. Her national lead in the RealClearPolitics average has gone […]

The 2016 Streak Breakers

The longstanding blue and red counties that Clinton and Trump could flip

, Guest Columnist

Editor’s note: As a part of the development of this article, the Crystal Ball team compiled a database of county winners going back to 1836. Click here to access it. Political types may love the 2016 election, but we recognize that for many, it is a dreary affair. Media saturation and two unpopular candidates can […]

Why Trump Will Do Better in Ohio Than He Does Nationally

And why that doesn’t guarantee he’ll win the state

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

“There is no city in the United States in which I get a warmer welcome and fewer votes than Columbus, Ohio.” – John F. Kennedy For the first time since Ohio rejected Kennedy in favor of Richard M. Nixon in 1960, it seems quite possible that the Buckeye State will find itself on the losing […]

Now We Wait

Let’s see how the debate impacts a tightening election

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear Readers: We’re operating on a slightly modified schedule this week and next. There will be no Crystal Ball on Thursday, Sept. 29, but we’ll be back with a special issue on Monday, Oct. 3. — The Editors The first debate is over! At least everyone survived. If you’re confused about who’s up and who’s […]

Do Debates Matter?

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This article is partially an update of a piece we published in 2012 discussing the impact of presidential debates. To slightly modify Ronald Reagan’s famous rejoinder to Jimmy Carter in their single debate in 1980 (“There you go again”), here we go again — into the debate season. There has been at least […]

At the Beginning: The Debates of 1960

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

There are a lot of ways to tell you’re getting old, and one is the realization that you have watched every presidential general election debate in U.S. history. The saving grace is that the history is short, with TV debates only beginning in 1960. And truth be told, I was just eight years old when […]

Seeing the Forest for the Trees: Presidential Election Forecasts and the Fundamentals

, Guest Columnist

Dear Readers: Over the past couple of months, we’ve been running a series on election forecasting models. James E. Campbell, who has been compiling these forecasts for us, offers some concluding thoughts on the series below. — The Editors Modern presidential election campaigns generate a massive amount of news. This has never been more true […]

The Trump Surge

Or is it a Clinton Fallback?

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

And then, everything changed. Well, not everything, but enough to generate the first major revision in our electoral map, and all of it is in Donald Trump’s direction for now. Let us make our view perfectly clear: We still believe that Hillary Clinton is more likely than Trump to win the election, and she still […]

The Fundamentals: Where Are We in This Strange Race for President?

And can Trump breach Fortress Obama?

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Every presidential election is different, but nobody’s going to tell us that this one isn’t notably different from any other in the modern period. It’s not just that the two major-party candidates are so disliked and unpopular with much of the public. While Donald Trump’s numbers are no better and sometimes worse, Hillary Clinton’s unfavorables […]