Updated April 18, 2013
| First Tier | |||
| Candidate | Key Advantages | Key Disadvantages | |
|---|---|---|---|
 |
Scott Walker Governor, WI |
•Midwest GOP gov. in Obama state •Heroic conservative credentials •Shown political durability |
•Too bland? Next Pawlenty? |
 |
Marco Rubio Senator, FL |
•Hispanic •Dynamic speaker and politician •From most electorally valuable swing state |
•Future tough votes in Senate; has and will have federal record •Vetting issues regarding family •Could he really deliver more Hispanic votes? |
 |
Chris Christie Governor, NJ |
•Dynamic speaker •Shown ability to pursue conservative agenda in Blue state •Proven crossover appeal/populism |
•Superstorm Sandy fallout •Not conservative enough for base? •Loose cannon |
| Second Tier | |||
 |
Rand Paul Senator, KY |
•Tea Party favorite •Strong support from libertarian GOP wing •National ID and fundraising network |
•Too libertarian? •Association with out-of-mainstream father •Too dovish/eclectic for GOP tastes? |
 |
Bobby Jindal Governor, LA |
•Brings diversity •Southerner in Southern party •Extensive state/fed. experience |
•Controversial governorship •Not nationally vetted •Not a dynamic speaker |
| Third Tier | |||
 |
Rick Santorum Fmr. Senator, PA |
•Strong support from social conservatives •2nd place finisher in ‘12 – next in line? •Been around primary track |
•Too conservative for general election? •Lost last Senate race by 17% •Foot-in-mouth troubles |
 |
Paul Ryan Representative, WI |
•2012 VP candidate – next in line? •General election experience •Strong conservative record |
•May not want to run •Couldn’t help Romney carry WI •Not a dynamic campaigner |
 |
Rick Perry Governor, TX |
•Strong conservative credentials •Texas fundraising •Extensive executive experience |
•May lose ‘14 TX GOP primary •Ran very poor 2012 race •”Oops,” we forgot the rest |
| Wild Card? | |||
 |
John Kasich Governor, OH |
•Swing state •Long conservative record •Ohio’s unemployment below national average |
•Supports Medicaid expansion •Legislative resistance to budget •Abrasive personality |
Updated April 10, 2013
| First Tier | |||
| Candidate | Key Advantages | Key Disadvantages | |
|---|---|---|---|
 |
Hillary Clinton Fmr. Sec. of State |
•High national popularity •Woman: chance to make history •Likely to unify party forces if she runs (unlike ‘08) |
•Age (69 by Election Day ‘16) •Did not run strong ‘08 campaign •Keeping Bill in check and on the porch |
| Second Tier | |||
 |
Joe Biden Vice President |
•Vast experience •Next in line? Will Obam back him? •VP bully pulpit |
•Age (already 70) •Gaffe machine •Poor pres campaign history |
| Third Tier | |||
 |
Andrew Cuomo Governor, NY |
•Very popular at home •Impressive policy record already •State/Fed. experience |
•Too conventional? •Some liberals unhappy •Another Northeasterner? |
 |
Elizabeth Warren Senator, MA | •Adored by Dem activists •Woman •National ID and fundraising network |
•Little crossover appeal •’12 campaign baggage •Another Bay Stater? |
| Fourth Tier | |||
 |
Mark Warner Senator, VA |
•Strong executive record •Key swing state •Crossover appeal/ bipartisanship theme •Well-financed |
•Too moderate? •No national constituency •Not a dynamic speaker |
 |
Kirsten Gillibrand Senator, NY |
•Woman •Strong liberal record •NY fundraising base |
•Bland persona •Nationally unknown •Past NRA support? |
 |
Martin O’Malley Governor, MD |
•Willing and very available •Strong liberal record and policy achievements |
•Maryland=small base •Little crossover appeal •Nationally unknown |
 |
Brian Schweitzer Fmr. Governor, MT |
•Westerner •Unique populist personality •Very popular Dem in Red state |
•Westerner •Unique personality •Too unpredictable? |
| Wild Card? | |||
 |
John Hickenlooper Governor, CO |
•Swing state •Crossover appeal •Westerner •Gun control backer |
•Nationally unknown •Not a dynamic pol •Interest in running? |
May 16th, 2013
,
“I was born an American; I will live an American; I shall die an American.” — Daniel Webster
While Daniel Webster died an American in 1852, his political legacy does not belong to just one state, but two: New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Born in New Hampshire, Webster represented the Granite State in the House of Representatives [...]
May 9th, 2013
2016 Presidential Update: The newest shiny object
Last week, intense speculation centered on freshman Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) possible presidential aspirations. The revelation has prompted all sorts of reactions, including a positive one from the unlikeliest of sources. While some have asked questions about his constitutional eligibility to run for the highest office in the land, [...]
April 25th, 2013
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There were real victims in the Boston bombings last week — the dead, the wounded, the grieving families, the terrorized communities — but there was substantial collateral damage done to news media credibility.
We’ll leave to others the listing of specific winners and losers. Goodness knows, there have been enough scathing reviews published already. Innocent “bag [...]
April 25th, 2013
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One of the questions we asked prior to the 2012 election was whether or not state-level unemployment figures would matter much on Election Day. As it turned out, the answer was “probably not much.”
Throughout the 2012 election cycle, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report became a highly anticipated event. Politicians, journalists and election [...]
April 18th, 2013
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As we discussed last week, the Democratic Party’s presidential field in 2016 hinges greatly on the decision of one person: Hillary Clinton. The Republican Party’s early primary picture is much more complicated, and the top-tier contenders are grouped much closer together at the starting gate.
To us, though, there is one name that stands out just [...]
April 11th, 2013
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Before he cast his ballot in 1860, Abraham Lincoln cut off the portion of it pertaining to the presidential race. Lincoln did not campaign for office, nor did he even vote for himself. Back then and for much of the nation’s history, it was considered unseemly to seek the presidency openly, obviously and energetically. It [...]
March 28th, 2013
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UPDATE: The Crystal Ball’s Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Paul Brandus of West Wing Report about this article. To hear the audio, click here.
Perhaps Pennsylvania Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi (R) should be nicknamed the “The Electoral College Count von Count” for his different ways of trying to count electoral votes. Much like the Sesame Street [...]
March 7th, 2013
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Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the latest challenge to what many consider the most important civil rights law of the past century — the 1965 Voting Rights Act. The challenge involves Section 5 of the law, which requires nine states — all but two in the South — to obtain [...]
January 24th, 2013
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Republicans are struggling to right their ship after the defeat of 2012. The unfavorable demographic trends for the GOP that we describe in our new book, Barack Obama and the New America, have sunk in, and the party knows it must do something. We have solicited ideas ourselves, believing that it is vital for America [...]
January 24th, 2013
In last week’s Crystal Ball, we discussed the recent electoral troubles of the Republican Party and what it might take to improve the GOP’s chances in the future. We also asked our readers for their thoughts, and plenty took the opportunity to give us their input, ranging from mostly serious suggestions to a couple humorous [...]
January 17th, 2013
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With the constitutionally-mandated presidential oath-taking falling on a Sunday this year, the country will follow tradition and have a private ceremony at the White House on Sunday, followed by the usual public spectacular on Monday at the Capitol.
Even with a double-dose of oath-taking, few sense much excitement. It has always been thus for second terms. [...]
January 17th, 2013
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As you read this, the U.S. House Republicans are meeting in retreat at Williamsburg, VA. While some would argue this is a good choice of locale to get back to the Republic’s colonial roots and fundamental principles, others will say it augurs poorly for the GOP’s need to embrace the future with new ideas and [...]
January 10th, 2013
The University of Virginia Center for Politics is pleased to announce that our post-election book, Barack Obama and the New America: The 2012 Election and the Changing Face of Politics, will be released next Tuesday, Jan. 15.
To order the book — which is published by Rowman and Littlefield — click here.
Center for Politics Director Larry [...]
December 20th, 2012
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Now that we have official election results from nearly every state, we wanted to offer some closing thoughts on election 2012. So here are 10 bite-sized nuggets, an appetizer for your holiday feasts. As a programming note, we’re taking the next two weeks off to recharge for the next cycle. Our next issue of the [...]
November 15th, 2012
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Programming note: The Crystal Ball is taking the week off for Thanksgiving next week, but we’ll be back with another edition on Thursday, Nov. 29.
So what can we glean from last week’s election? Plenty. Here are 12 takeaways from the 2012 election, presented in bite-sized pieces. One note: all vote totals and percentages used in [...]
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