Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

Republicans in 2016: Rubio Edges Ahead of Walker

But this field remains remarkably large and jumbled

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

For Republicans looking ahead to 2016, Florida is the pivotal state in the Electoral College. Naturally, we can’t know exactly what will happen a year and a half from now, but from our current vantage point, it appears very likely that the GOP must win the state to have a shot at winning 270 or […]

2016 Republican Race Might See Record Level of Competition in Early States

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With a list of 20 official or possible Republican entrants in the presidential race, it’s very possible that we will see a record number of major candidates in 2016. We’re clearly a long way from the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, but a look back the last 40 years shows the potential for […]

Clinton’s Age: It Probably Doesn’t Matter

History does not show an edge for the younger presidential candidate

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

When Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) announced his presidential run on April 13, his speech made a point of going after ex-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) — and, in unspoken terms, former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) — as the candidates of “yesterday.” There’s a clear generational gap between Rubio and Clinton and Bush: While he’s […]

Clinton’s Short List of Rivals

With Hillary in, Warren and others drop off our Democratic nomination rankings

, U.Va. Center for Politics

In light of Hillary Clinton’s presidential announcement on Sunday followed by Marco Rubio’s announcement on Monday, we decided to release the Crystal Ball early this week in order to break down their candidacies in a timely fashion. We’ll be back to our regular Thursday morning schedule next week. — The Editors The least shocking announcement […]

Marco Rubio’s Intriguing Presidential Bid

He’s a potentially strong contender for the GOP nod

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Early on Monday, news broke that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) will run for president, ending any uncertainty about his future and whether he would remain in the Senate. He was scheduled to officially announce his candidacy late Monday afternoon. As he enters the race, Rubio sits in third behind ex-Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) and Gov. […]

2016 Republican Nomination: The Race “Officially” Begins

Pence is sent packing as Paul announces

Last week, a Crystal Ball reader sent us an e-mail asking if now would be the time to remove “low name ID nationally” from our list of negatives for possible presidential aspirant Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN). We absolutely agree, given the turmoil surrounding Indiana’s new religious freedom law: There’s little question that name identification is […]

The Republican Presidential Primary Timeline

What we know so far about the GOP nominating process

, Guest Columnist

Before the 2016 presidential election cycle fully enters what might be called delegate selection plan season — when state parties finalize their plans for allocating delegates to the national conventions next year — it is important to take a step back and examine the rules changes made at the national party level. Those sets of […]

Are Voters Drifting Away?

For first time in 16 years, back-to-back cycles saw drops in raw turnout

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

For the first decade after Sept. 11, national elections showed a steady rise in voter turnout. The number of ballots cast in presidential elections jumped from 105 million in 2000 to a record 131 million in 2008, an increase of 25% in just eight years. Similarly, the midterm congressional turnout swelled from 66 million in […]

Why This Scandal Won’t Hurt Hillary

History shows us that presidential candidates tend to weather controversy better than senators and congressmen

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he explores how scandals haven’t often been top-tier issues in presidential general elections, something to keep in mind in light of the recent focus on Hillary Clinton’s e-mails. A version of this article originally appeared in Politico […]

The Political and Demographic Challenges of the 2016 Presidential Election

, Guest Columnist

It is quite interesting to speculate about the 2016 presidential nomination battles and especially potential general election winners and losers. But, it might be best for all of us to keep our powder dry. Current conventional wisdom has it that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and any of a gaggle of contenders will […]

Now Available: the Surge, the Center for Politics’ New Book Analyzing the 2014 and 2016 Elections

The Surge, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ postmortem of the 2014 midterms and preview of the 2016 presidential election, is now available. Edited by Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and Sabato’s Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley and published by Rowman and Littlefield, The Surge: 2014’s Big GOP Win […]

2016 President Update: Clinton Isn’t Going Anywhere…Yet

On the Republican side, Christie’s moving in the wrong direction

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Hillary Clinton went before cameras and reporters at the United Nations last week to address the ongoing controversy over her use of a private email system during her time as secretary of state. She was terse, combative, and essentially told the American people to “trust her” when she says that she didn’t do anything wrong […]

Book Excerpt From the Surge: Through a Glass Darkly

The outlook for the 2016 presidential election

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It’s spring break at the University of Virginia, and we want to supplement your beach reading — or replace a trashy novel — with sophisticated fare that will impress your friends. So this week we present an excerpt of Alan Abramowitz’s concluding chapter in The Surge, the U.Va. Center for Politics’ new book about the […]

Coattails and Correlation

Presidential and Senate results should track closely in 2016 -- and that’s nothing new

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Few political observers will be surprised that the correlation between presidential and Senate results has been increasing over the last few presidential election cycles. That is, during a presidential election year, the Senate race in state A has increasingly tended to have a similar outcome to the presidential result in state A. Other analysts have […]

Religion in Politics: A Look at Data From the New American Values Atlas

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Wednesday, the Public Religion Research Institute released its new American Values Atlas. It is full of information regarding the American public’s religious identity, political views on hot-button issues such as abortion and immigration, and demographic information for regions, states, and major metropolitan areas. This atlas should prove to be a highly useful resource, especially […]