Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

Religion in Politics: A Look at Data From the New American Values Atlas

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Wednesday, the Public Religion Research Institute released its new American Values Atlas. It is full of information regarding the American public’s religious identity, political views on hot-button issues such as abortion and immigration, and demographic information for regions, states, and major metropolitan areas. This atlas should prove to be a highly useful resource, especially […]

Why Outside Spending Is Overrated

Lessons from the 2014 Senate Elections

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Koch brothers and their network of wealthy conservative donors recently announced that they intend to spend almost $900 million on the 2016 elections. This level of spending by a group operating independently of any candidate or political party would be unprecedented in American politics. In fact, it would exceed the combined spending by the […]

The Surge: Our Book on 2014 & 2016 Is Available for Pre-Order

The Surge, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ postmortem of the 2014 midterms and preview of the 2016 presidential election, is now available for pre-order. Edited by Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and Sabato’s Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley and published by Rowman and Littlefield, The Surge: 2014’s Big […]

The Era of Competition: How 2016 Could Set a Presidential Record

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The United States is in the midst of an era of great competitiveness in presidential contests. Not once in the last seven presidential elections has a party won more than 55% or less than 45% of the two-party vote. In a recent article for Politico Magazine, the Crystal Ball team argued that fundamentals, recent history, […]

A Major Reshuffling of the Republican Presidential Deck

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

For nearly two years we’ve been ranking the GOP presidential contenders, and we’ve only had two names in the No. 1 spot. Now, in our latest update, those two are together, and alone, at the top. The new first tier is Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida, and Scott Walker, the governor of Wisconsin. […]

Who Starts With an Edge in 2016?

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he and the rest of the Crystal Ball team provide a very early outlook for the 2016 presidential election. — The Editors The 2016 presidential election is going to resemble Thomas Hobbes’ famous description of the natural […]

For Republicans, a 2016 Tie Is a Win

GOP virtually guaranteed to hold edge in event of deadlocked Electoral College

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, elected to a third term earlier this month, often notes that the presidential cycle is harder for his party than midterms because the electorate is more diverse and Democratic. “For us to win a presidential election, we have to be just about perfect, and the Democrats have to be […]

Updated 2020 Reapportionment Projections

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

At the end of 2014, the Census Bureau released its 2014 population estimates. This provides new fodder for political geeks when looking ahead to the 2020 census and its major political impact: congressional reapportionment. Unfortunately, the Census Bureau doesn’t release state-level population projections anymore, just national estimates up to the year 2060, leaving it to […]

Obama’s Approval Rating and the Outlook for the 2016 Presidential Election

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With the 2014 midterm election in the rearview mirror, the attention of pundits and political prognosticators has quickly shifted to the outlook for the 2016 presidential election. On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State, First Lady, and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton appears to be the prohibitive favorite to emerge as the nominee. On the […]

The Search for a Slogan

What Hillary, Jeb, Rand, and the rest could learn from the history of campaign catchphrases

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he discusses the history of campaign slogans and what past examples could teach 2016 contenders. This article originally appeared in Politico Magazine on Jan. 19, 2015. After the column appeared Monday, we solicited slogan suggestions via e-mail […]

Three-Peat? Mitt Romney’s New Rating

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Shades of 2012! The previous Republican ticket just reappeared from the mists of the past to issue pronouncements about 2016. The ex-VP nominee, Rep. Paul Ryan, said the expected: He isn’t running. The Crystal Ball was so sure of his non-candidacy that we didn’t even include him anywhere in our seven tiers last month, to […]

The New World Order

The Republican White House field is scrambled earlier than expected

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Well, that didn’t last long! By that, we mean our pre-Christmas ordering of the GOP presidential field. We shouldn’t be surprised. Politics never takes a long holiday break anymore. First prize for early maneuvering goes to Jeb Bush. His unexpected, all-but-in announcement on Dec. 16 stunned his competitors and the political community. Bush didn’t just […]

Only ~700 Days to Go

The Race for the White House -- Nomination Phase

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After releasing our initial Senate, House, and gubernatorial ratings for 2016 earlier this month, we’re finishing off this year’s Crystal Ball with an updated look at the race for each party’s presidential nominations. We’ll be back Thursday, Jan. 8, 2015. Have a safe and happy holiday season. — The Editors Thank goodness the midterm election […]

What a Drag

Why a party may well be better off losing the White House

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he examines the presidential party’s penalty for holding the White House: losing ground everywhere else. This article originally appeared in Politico Magazine on Dec. 1, 2014. Think of the billions the parties must raise to elect a […]

University of Virginia Center for Politics to Host 16th Annual American Democracy Conference

Today, Nov. 20, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host the 16th annual American Democracy Conference. The conference, which will be held at Alumni Hall on the Grounds of the University of Virginia, will feature panels of leading journalists and political experts focused on the results of the recent midterm elections and the […]