Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

Republicans 2016: A Contracting List of True Contenders

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Crystal Ball is taking next week off and will return on Thursday, Dec. 3. We wish our readers a very happy, safe and, most important, filling Thanksgiving. — The Editors The atrocities in Paris over the weekend show that events can and will inject new issues into the presidential contest or intensify ones that […]

Democrats 2016: Clinton’s Cloak of Inevitability

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Every Republican debate appears consequential because of the large number of candidates, the changing cast of characters on stage, and the clashes among controversial colorful contenders on hot-button topics. The same cannot be said on the Democratic side. There just isn’t much drama left in the Democrats’ search for a nominee. While Hillary Clinton was […]

Watch Live: Center for Politics Hosts American Democracy Conference

The University of Virginia Center for Politics has assembled some of the nation’s leading campaign strategists, pollsters, reporters, and analysts to break down next year’s presidential primary and general election campaigns. The 17th annual American Democracy Conference kicks off today in Washington, DC at 10:15 a.m. with a discussion of the Democratic presidential primary contest. […]

University of Virginia Center for Politics to Host 17th Annual American Democracy Conference in Washington

On Thursday, Nov. 19, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host the 17th annual American Democracy Conference in Washington, DC. The conference will feature leading journalists and political experts discussing the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries as well as the overall political outlook for 2016. The conference will be held at the Ronald […]

Republicans 2016: White Evangelicals Dominate the Early Calendar

But then become less prominent later in the race

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Based on the election calendar, white evangelical Christians are going to receive ample attention early in the 2016 Republican primary. Using exit poll data from the 2012 and 2008 GOP primaries, as well as data from the Census Bureau and the Public Religion Research Institute’s American Values Atlas to help estimate numbers for states with […]

1968: Ball of Confusion

A year of chaos that makes today’s political battles seem tame by comparison

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

The UVA Center for Politics’ latest documentary, Ball of Confusion, has begun airing on PBS stations across the nation this week. Check your local listings to see when it’s playing in your area, and click on the image below to watch the trailer. The documentary recounts the three-way presidential contest among Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, […]

Republicans 2016: Where the Race Stands Now

Rubio up, Bush down, and what separates Trump from Carson

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The third Republican presidential debate, held in Colorado on Wednesday night, was an odd, disjointed affair. The moderators arguably engaged in too much confrontation with the candidates and had a hard time divvying up the speaking time. With 10 candidates on the stage, the problems of the first two debates — too many candidates, too […]

Biden Out

Clinton, now more than ever

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The decision by Vice President Joe Biden to pass on the presidential race confirms what would have been true even if he had entered the contest: This is Hillary Clinton’s race to lose. Biden’s exit strengthens her position, because it has become clear that Biden was taking more support away from Clinton than from the […]

Democrats 2016: After Months of Struggles, Clinton Helps Herself at Debate

Last year at this time, Democrats were in the final month of their losing battle to hold the U.S. Senate. But while licking their wounds after the election, they consoled themselves with a 2016 comeback vision. Democrats already had a candidate so credentialed she was likely to sweep to the nomination and be in a […]

What if Biden Waits – and Waits?

He could still serve as his party’s insurance policy

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The kickoff Democratic debate is in the books, and Vice President Joe Biden still has not announced whether he will run for president. Time seems to be running short: As we wrote last month, the filing deadlines for the first primaries are coming up soon. The first one for the Democrats is Nov. 6 in […]

Republicans 2016: Two Down, 14 to Go

Making sense of a (slowly) shrinking GOP field

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Whatever else it is, the Republican presidential contest has become a full employment act for reporters and analysts. With the largest (though gradually shrinking) field of any major party in U.S. history and a Republican electorate that appears mad as hell and isn’t going to take it anymore, the GOP caravan is careening down the […]

The Fall of Scott Walker

How the man who could have been both outsider and insider became neither

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

News broke Monday afternoon that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is dropping out of the Republican presidential race. Walker’s star had clearly been fading — a recent CNN national poll showed practically nonexistent national support. Walker is someone we identified early as a major presidential contender, and for a while, he appeared to be just that. […]

The Reagan Rumble

, U.Va. Center for Politics

With a Wednesday night debate, we would have been remiss to send you a Crystal Ball on Thursday morning without a reaction. Here are some quick thoughts from the three of us on what we’re calling “The Reagan Rumble.” We’ll have a lot more to say on the state of the GOP race next week. […]

No Drama Obama

The president’s approval rating has been the steadiest in modern history

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

President Obama’s middling job approval rating has been quite steady over the last few months, devoid of much movement outside of the relatively subtle shifts seen from poll to poll. This is nothing new: Based on Gallup’s polling, Barack Obama’s approval rating has the smallest standard deviation of any modern president. That is, Americans’ view […]

Early Thoughts on 2016’s Presidential and Down-Ballot Races

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is a regular contributor to Politico Magazine, and this week he and the Crystal Ball team offer snippets and links to a two-part series that takes an early look at the 2016 presidential and down-ballot pictures. The first article, which appeared in Politico Magazine on Sept. 7, […]