Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

Obama’s Approval Rating and the Outlook for the 2016 Presidential Election

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With the 2014 midterm election in the rearview mirror, the attention of pundits and political prognosticators has quickly shifted to the outlook for the 2016 presidential election. On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State, First Lady, and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton appears to be the prohibitive favorite to emerge as the nominee. On the […]

The Search for a Slogan

What Hillary, Jeb, Rand, and the rest could learn from the history of campaign catchphrases

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he discusses the history of campaign slogans and what past examples could teach 2016 contenders. This article originally appeared in Politico Magazine on Jan. 19, 2015. After the column appeared Monday, we solicited slogan suggestions via e-mail […]

Three-Peat? Mitt Romney’s New Rating

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Shades of 2012! The previous Republican ticket just reappeared from the mists of the past to issue pronouncements about 2016. The ex-VP nominee, Rep. Paul Ryan, said the expected: He isn’t running. The Crystal Ball was so sure of his non-candidacy that we didn’t even include him anywhere in our seven tiers last month, to […]

The New World Order

The Republican White House field is scrambled earlier than expected

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Well, that didn’t last long! By that, we mean our pre-Christmas ordering of the GOP presidential field. We shouldn’t be surprised. Politics never takes a long holiday break anymore. First prize for early maneuvering goes to Jeb Bush. His unexpected, all-but-in announcement on Dec. 16 stunned his competitors and the political community. Bush didn’t just […]

Only ~700 Days to Go

The Race for the White House -- Nomination Phase

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After releasing our initial Senate, House, and gubernatorial ratings for 2016 earlier this month, we’re finishing off this year’s Crystal Ball with an updated look at the race for each party’s presidential nominations. We’ll be back Thursday, Jan. 8, 2015. Have a safe and happy holiday season. — The Editors Thank goodness the midterm election […]

What a Drag

Why a party may well be better off losing the White House

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he examines the presidential party’s penalty for holding the White House: losing ground everywhere else. This article originally appeared in Politico Magazine on Dec. 1, 2014. Think of the billions the parties must raise to elect a […]

University of Virginia Center for Politics to Host 16th Annual American Democracy Conference

Today, Nov. 20, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host the 16th annual American Democracy Conference. The conference, which will be held at Alumni Hall on the Grounds of the University of Virginia, will feature panels of leading journalists and political experts focused on the results of the recent midterm elections and the […]

The Underrated Eisenhower Coalition

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Every political science undergraduate learns the “canonical” list of realigning elections: 1828, 1860, 1896, 1932, and 1968. These elections, so the narrative goes, bring about sharp, enduring changes to the American political system, forcing one party into the background and allowing another party to come to the forefront. I’ve long been skeptical of the utility […]

What Goes Around Comes Around?

A little Electoral College history in Michigan

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Since President Obama’s reelection victory in 2012, a number of Republican state legislators around the country have proposed altering the electoral vote allocation processes in their respective states. Legislative activity on this front has been most common in competitive states that Obama won but where Republicans control most or all of state government, such as […]

14 From ’14: Quick Takes on the Midterm

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After going over the results from last week, we had a number of bite-sized observations to offer — 14, to be exact: 1. The polls really were worse than usual This cycle featured the largest average miss by the two major poll aggregators, RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster, in recent competitive Senate races. This isn’t a […]

The Kennedy Half Century Now Available in Paperback

MOOC also returns with new lessons

Available now: The Kennedy Half Century in paperback, featuring new interviews, scientific studies, and empirical data. Among the new material contained in the paperback edition: A well-placed CIA employee reveals what really happened inside agency headquarters on Nov. 22, 1963. New analysis that further demonstrates the unreliability of the police Dictabelt audio evidence from Nov. […]

“Bombs Away” Tackles Lbj, Goldwater and 1964 Election

Ushered in age of negative campaign ads, highlighted by “Daisy” spot

Marking the 50th anniversary of the groundbreaking 1964 presidential campaign, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations have released the first trailer for their latest documentary, Bombs Away: LBJ, Goldwater and the 1964 Campaign that Changed It All. Scheduled for nationwide and international release later this fall, the one-hour documentary looks […]

2016 Presidential Update: For Republicans, a Vacancy at the Top

GOP field features long list but no obvious frontrunner

, U.Va. Center for Politics

It’s lonely at the top of the Republican field — like, “top of Mt. Everest” lonely. In our latest shuffle of the 2016 Crystal Ball presidential outlook, we’ve decided that the Republican first tier is…empty. Our Republican friends might object, but deep down, we think they would be hard-pressed to argue for any single name […]

False Hope: Why Libertarians Won’t Help Republicans Win the Youth Vote

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Republican Party has a major problem with young voters. According to national exit polls, the GOP has lost the under-30 vote by a wide margin in every election since 2004. In 2012, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by a whopping 23 percentage points among 18-29 year olds. Romney’s deficit among young voters was responsible […]

Iowa Survives

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

While potential presidential candidates are just beginning to jockey for pole position for 2016, there has already been one clear winner: the state of Iowa. Its precinct caucuses have retained the leadoff spot in the next nominating cycle in spite of one of the most embarrassing vote counts in modern political history two years ago […]