Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

The Electoral College: Map No. 2

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Some of our readers may recall that the Crystal Ball published its first 2016 Electoral College map at the end of March. It was somewhat controversial — at least judging by many of the reactions we received. As you see below, at that time we projected Hillary Clinton at 347 electoral votes and Donald Trump […]

A Tale of Two Elections: Clinton’s 2016 Primary Performance Versus 2008

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s note: This is the first of two editions of the Crystal Ball this week. While we typically only publish once a week, this is an extraordinary political year and we hope to provide additional commentary and analysis throughout the rest of the cycle as warranted. Today’s piece kicks off “Map Week” for the Crystal […]

President 2016: The Lazy, Hazy, Crazy Days of Summer Politics

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

As we find ourselves at the end of the primary season, we can all look back in wonder: What hath the voters wrought? Last summer when he announced a candidacy, almost no political professional picked Donald Trump to be the GOP nominee — yet here he is. And no one we know thought that the […]

Model Points to Close California Result Between Clinton and Sanders

But Sanders is very unlikely to get the big margins he needs on June 7

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On June 7, five states — California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota — will hold primary elections. It is the last major day of primaries of 2016, and with the Republican race already decided, almost all of the attention will be focused on the Democratic side, where 676 pledged (elected) delegates will […]

Growing Urban-Rural Split Provides Republicans With Down-Ballot Advantages

, Guest Columnist

The 2012 election provided two powerful reminders about the electoral implications of overly-concentrated Democratic voters. First, the Republicans held their U.S. House majority, won in 2010, despite the fact that the Democratic candidates in the 435 House districts received more votes than their Republican opponents. Second, these House results were echoed by Democrat Barack Obama’s […]

Why Democratic Unity Could Be Easier to Achieve This Time: Donald Trump and Barack Obama

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With only a few weeks left in the 2016 primary campaign, a lot of liberal pundits and Democratic Party leaders are getting very nervous about the outlook for the general election. To almost everyone’s surprise, Donald Trump has secured the Republican presidential nomination while Hillary Clinton is still locked in a contentious battle with Bernie […]

Libertarians Should Have Their Best Presidential Election Ever

But that is not necessarily saying much

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

While presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has seemingly done a better-than-expected job of uniting the Republican rank-and-file after dispatching his presidential rivals, he continues to face elite opposition from some GOP leaders and opinion-makers. Rumors of a third-party presidential bid designed to give #NeverTrump Republicans an option continue even if, frankly, that seems less […]

The Veepstakes, Part Two: Trump’s Temptation

A candidate who prefers flash might be better off playing it safe

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

This is the second of a two-part series analyzing the Democratic and Republican vice presidential possibilities. This week, we examine presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump’s considerations and options. Last week, we looked at Hillary Clinton’s choices on the Democratic side. — The Editors Heading into the 2014 National Football League draft, rumors were swirling that […]

The Running Mate Calculus

It's not surprising that Trump's process looks a lot less conventional than Clinton's

, Guest Columnist

Now that the nominations of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump appear inevitable, attention turns, as it always does at this time, to the vice presidential selections. This year presents the fifth time in 40 years that both parties will select new running mates. Although Trump’s recent victories have eliminated the prospect of a brokered Republican […]

High Primary Turnouts: Any Clues for the Fall?

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s note: This is the first of two editions of the Crystal Ball this week. While we typically only publish once a week, this is an extraordinary political year and we hope to provide additional commentary and analysis throughout the rest of the cycle as warranted. In the piece below, Senior Columnist Rhodes Cook provides […]

Vice Presidential Selection: How Much Does It Matter This Year?

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

When a presidential campaign wants to signal that it is turning from the nomination clash to the general election, “sources close to the campaign” make it known the Veep search has begun. Right on schedule, as Donald Trump has become the Republican nominee-presumptive and Hillary Clinton has maintained an unassailable mathematical lead on the Democratic […]

The Veepstakes, Part One: Clinton’s Choices

Senate balance of power could play a role

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

This is the first of a two-part series analyzing the Democratic and Republican vice presidential possibilities. This week, we’ll look at likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s choices, and then we’ll assess presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump’s options next week. — The Editors “First, do no harm” The Hippocratic Oath is the prime directive for doctors, […]

The Fall Outlook: Fear and Loathing on the 2016 Campaign Trail

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

“The whole framework of the presidency is getting out of hand. It’s come to the point where you almost can’t run unless you can cause people to salivate and whip on each other with big sticks. You almost have to be a rock star to get the kind of fever you need to survive in […]

Indiana: #Nevertrump’s Last Stand?

Cruz hopes for Wisconsin repeat in a state that’s more open to voting Trump

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

One could not be blamed for looking at the Republican primary results over the past 10 days and questioning how someone could stop Donald Trump from being the Republican nominee. But a look at the delegate math suggests that the race is not over yet. As we laid out after New York, the roadmap to […]

Democratic Forecast Model Beats the Polls

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Late last week, the Crystal Ball published a simple forecasting model that I created to try to predict the results of the Democratic primary. The model is based on three predictors — region (South versus North), African-American percentage of primary voters in 2008, and Democratic percentage of primary voters in 2008 — and it outperformed […]