Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

The Democrats’ Mythical Third Term Obstacle

, Guest Columnist

Dear Readers: We have long suggested that one factor in the GOP’s favor in the 2016 presidential sweepstakes is a party’s difficulty in winning a third consecutive White House term. But there is another way to look at the subject that does not make the third-term hurdle seem so daunting, as Crystal Ball friend Prof. […]

President 2016: The Clash of Dynasties

Assessing where Clinton & Bush stand after their big speeches

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear Readers: We made a couple of much-needed improvements to our Crystal Ball website over the past week that we wanted to make sure you knew about. The first, which you’ll see at the top of online posts, are buttons to easily share Crystal Ball stories on social media sites like Facebook and Twitter. The […]

Ohio, New Mexico the Best Presidential Bellwethers

How all the states stack up over the past 30 elections

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Buckeye State, long recognized as perhaps the nation’s premier presidential swing state, deserves its status. In the 30 presidential elections since 1896, Ohio has correctly picked the winner 28 times. Ohio has company at the top though — it beats out another top presidential swing state, New Mexico, by only a hair. Like Ohio, […]

Mapping the Crystal Ball’s House Ratings

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Our friends over at Daily Kos Elections, a left-leaning site that produces reams of useful, nonpartisan political analysis and resources, just rolled out perhaps the best map of House districts we’ve seen. Visualizing our House ratings is challenging because of the wide disparity between district sizes. The smallest congressional district, that of retiring Rep. Charlie […]

The Myths of 2016

What everyone gets wrong about the election

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he and the rest of the Crystal Ball team take on the role of mythbusters, debunking some early conventional wisdom about the 2016 presidential contest. — The Editors We still have well over 500 days to the […]

The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is the Other Party

How negative partisanship is dividing Americans and shaping the outlook for the 2016 election

, Emory University

Which candidate will emerge from the crowded Republican presidential field next year? Can anyone stop or at least slow down Hillary Clinton’s seemingly inevitable march to the Democratic nomination? Will Democrats be able to match the GOP in Super PAC spending? And will there be new revelations about Clinton’s e-mails or the Clinton Foundation’s fundraising […]

Democrats 2016: Sanders Now Clinton’s Chief Rival

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

“Inevitable.” That’s the word often used to describe Hillary Clinton and the 2016 Democratic nomination. Can anyone beat her? Anything’s possible, but the odds appear quite low. Still, her most threatening intraparty opposition could prove to be a man who isn’t even technically a Democrat (yet, anyway): independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a self-identified […]

“Just a Kid From (Insert Small Town Here)”

Test your knowledge of the little places that produce presidents

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Hope is not only a good thing, as Andy Dufresne says in The Shawshank Redemption, but it’s also a small town of about 10,000 people in Southwest Arkansas, about 30 miles northeast of Texarkana. Oh, and it’s also the hometown of one president, Bill Clinton, and another who aspires (Hopes?) to also win the office, […]

Answers: Presidential Candidates’ Small-Town Roots

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Here are the answers to our quiz about which small towns are associated with which past and present presidential candidates: A-6 — Democrats tried to humanize the egg-headed Adlai Stevenson by presenting him as “The Man from Libertyville,” a Chicago suburb. B-2 — Al Gore was born in Washington, DC — his father was a […]

The Map: 11 Angles on the Electoral College

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Earlier this week, we debuted our initial Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings in Politico Magazine. We’ve reprinted that column below for those who did not see it. As promised, we have elaborated on the map and our reasoning for the initial judgments. Map 1: Initial Crystal Ball 2016 Electoral College ratings 1. Our hardest calls […]

The 2016 Results We Can Already Predict

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, the Crystal Ball team takes an initial look at the Electoral College, and how most states have remained relatively predictable in their partisan leanings. A version of this article originally appeared in Politico Magazine on May 3, […]

Republicans in 2016: Rubio Edges Ahead of Walker

But this field remains remarkably large and jumbled

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

For Republicans looking ahead to 2016, Florida is the pivotal state in the Electoral College. Naturally, we can’t know exactly what will happen a year and a half from now, but from our current vantage point, it appears very likely that the GOP must win the state to have a shot at winning 270 or […]

2016 Republican Race Might See Record Level of Competition in Early States

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With a list of 20 official or possible Republican entrants in the presidential race, it’s very possible that we will see a record number of major candidates in 2016. We’re clearly a long way from the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, but a look back the last 40 years shows the potential for […]

Clinton’s Age: It Probably Doesn’t Matter

History does not show an edge for the younger presidential candidate

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

When Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) announced his presidential run on April 13, his speech made a point of going after ex-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) — and, in unspoken terms, former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) — as the candidates of “yesterday.” There’s a clear generational gap between Rubio and Clinton and Bush: While he’s […]

Clinton’s Short List of Rivals

With Hillary in, Warren and others drop off our Democratic nomination rankings

, U.Va. Center for Politics

In light of Hillary Clinton’s presidential announcement on Sunday followed by Marco Rubio’s announcement on Monday, we decided to release the Crystal Ball early this week in order to break down their candidacies in a timely fashion. We’ll be back to our regular Thursday morning schedule next week. — The Editors The least shocking announcement […]