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Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections, Part 3

Dear Readers: This is the latest in a series of political science forecasts for the 2016 races for the White House and Congress. We’ll be featuring forecasts from nine different individuals and/or teams this year, which James E. Campbell is assembling as part of a project for PS: Political Science and Politics that we are […]

Clinton Rises to 348 Electoral Votes, Trump Drops to 190

Clinton now above 270 Safe or Likely Democratic electoral votes for the first time

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

New Hampshire may just have four electoral votes, but it’s important. If you doubt it, just ask any Granite State citizens, and they’ll tell you about their first-in-the-nation primary. Even that quartet of electoral votes can matter; in 2000, if Al Gore had just won them (and without Ralph Nader on the ballot, he probably […]

The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections, Part 2

Dear Readers: This is the latest in a series of political science forecasts for the 2016 races for the White House and Congress. We’ll be featuring forecasts from nine different individuals and/or teams this year, which James E. Campbell is assembling as part of a project for PS: Political Science and Politics that we are […]

The 35th Senate Seat on the Ballot: Virginia

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Everyone is rightly focused on the 34 Senate seats already on the ballot this fall. But there is actually a 35th, the Class I Senate seat currently held by Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine. Of the four major-party candidates for national office, only one contender holds a position whose term will not be finished […]

Forecasting the 2016 Presidential Election: Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump?

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear readers: We’re pleased this week to continue our series on the political science forecasts of the presidential election with a piece from Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz on his Time for Change model. Interestingly, the model shows Donald Trump as a small favorite in the presidential election. As you’ll read, Abramowitz throws some […]

The Electoral College: Pennsylvania Moves Toward Clinton

Key to Trump's chances, the Keystone State looks less promising for him

, Managing Editor, UVA Center for Politics

While there is some suggestion that Pennsylvania might be slowly trending Republican, and while it has a lot of the white, working-class voters that Donald Trump is targeting, recent polling has suggested that Hillary Clinton is obviously the favorite there right now. She leads Trump by close to seven-to-nine points in Keystone State polling averages, […]

Goldwater and Trump: Not Two Peas in a Pod

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Have you noticed all the comparisons on TV and in print between the Barry Goldwater campaign of 1964 and the Donald Trump campaign of 2016? It’s true both Goldwater was, and Trump is, the Republican nominee for president. And both could be fairly termed insurgent winners and highly controversial candidates. Yet the similarities are being […]

Hanging Tough

Why we've made only minor changes to our Electoral College ratings since March

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

On March 31, we released our first general election map of the Electoral College. With our self-imposed rule of permitting no cop-out “toss-ups” — a rule we’ll try to hold to as we handicap this year’s Electoral College map — our bottom-line totals were 347 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 191 for Donald Trump. […]

The Convention Aftermath: Clinton Bounces Higher Than Trump

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

How big did Hillary Clinton bounce in the polls after the Democratic National Convention? Based on the available data as of Wednesday afternoon, the Democratic nominee soared higher than Donald Trump did. At the end of the GOP convention, we laid out how we would look at the bounce — we used the median poll […]

Hurry Up and Wait

After the conventions, the presidential race heads into the dog days

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

As the nation’s political class, reporters, and analysts recover from the two-week convention slog — we know, the nation feels so sorry for us — the presidential race enters something of a lull. Labor Day, the traditional kick-off to the general election sprint, is still a month away, and August is a month dominated by […]

The Kennedy Conventions, Parts 2 and 3

JFK holds off LBJ in 1960, and then looms over his successor’s convention four years later

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Dear readers: This is the second and third part of a three-part series on the 1956, 1960, and 1964 Democratic National Conventions, and John F. Kennedy’s role at each. Click here to read part one. — The Editors Part II: Jack Kennedy’s 1960 Convention Triumph In 2016, some delegates in both parties have hoped the […]

Clinton Over the Hump, and Trump Gets a Bump

The state of the race after Clinton makes it official

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

(PHILADELPHIA) — After Donald Trump picked Mike Pence to be his running mate two weeks ago — that feels like two months ago, right? — we suggested that Trump could end up taking at least a temporary lead because of the convention bounce that presidential candidates typically get after their conventions. It appears that Trump […]

Kennedy’s Three Conventions, Part 1

Coming up second in the 1956 veepstakes

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Dear readers: With the Clinton family seeking to cement itself as the Democratic dynasty of the present, this week during the Democratic National Convention we’re taking a look back at the Democratic dynasty of the past — the Kennedys, and, specifically, John F. Kennedy. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato, author of The Kennedy […]

Clinton-Kaine: A Not-So Surprising Ticket

Picking VA senator makes the Old Dominion bluer; plus, wrapping up the RNC

(CLEVELAND) — If someone had told us at the start of this election cycle that the Democratic presidential nominee would be Hillary Clinton, and that she would choose Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running mate, we would have said that would be… very, very plausible. Now that Clinton has tabbed Kaine as her […]

What to Expect When You’re Expecting a Bounce

A nominee’s poll numbers almost always improve after a party convention

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The convention bounce is a long-established pattern in presidential election cycles. Much has been written about it, so we won’t rehash it too much. The main point is that conventions almost always generate an increase in a nominee’s polling numbers during and after his or her convention, but often times the bounce is short-lived. Still, […]