Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

Democrats 2016: The Primary Map Still Favors Clinton

Despite myriad problems, demography and geography are possibly the Democratic frontrunner’s best friends

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been under siege for months as additional revelations and developments regarding her use of a private email account continue to drip out. Last week, the Crystal Ball explored what might happen should Clinton drop out of the Democratic primary or, as the rumors swirl about the possibility, if […]

Democrats 2016: Biden His Time

If there’s a Clinton crash, the vice president might not be the only one who exploits it

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It’s time to ask a question, the answer to which we do not know: Will former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s private email server scandal do fatal damage to her campaign? Over the past few months it’s become clearer that the questions surrounding Clinton’s emails — and a corresponding flood of negative press that she […]

Republicans 2016: What to Do With the Donald?

Handicapping a frontrunner who (almost certainly) cannot win

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Whatever you think of him, Donald Trump is a stick of dynamite thrown into the presidential pond. All the boats have been rocked, and given Trump’s potential for more explosiveness, the political waters show little sign of settling down anytime soon. Donald Trump is so special that we’ve created a category (and perhaps a word) […]

The Angry American Voter

, Emory University

As Republicans take the stage in Cleveland for their first presidential primary debate tonight — with Donald Trump in the middle of it — one thing is already abundantly clear: A lot of voters are angry. Very angry. In fact, a lot of voters have been angry for some time. The phenomenon that we call […]

Kicking Off the Debate Season

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Welcome to Debate Day! Finally, voters and analysts will get to see one party’s field (or at least, some of it) take the stage to duke it out in primetime. The main GOP debate participant list is set, as is that of the warm-up confab for the seven Republicans who failed to make the top […]

Eight Decades of Debate

A brief history of presidential primary clashes

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Next week begins what has become a regular presidential primary tradition: the debates. As a way of previewing them, we decided to look back at the history of primary debates. Readers may be surprised to learn that primary debates existed before the advent of televised general election debates in 1960. Less surprising is that the […]

The Debates and the Bushes

Recent articles in Politico Magazine look at two aspects of the 2016 Republican presidential race

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is a regular contributor to Politico Magazine, and this week we offer a snippet and link to his two most recent pieces for the publication. The first article, which appeared in Politico Magazine on July 16, 2015, offers a more inclusive Republican debate format compared to the […]

Is Donald Trump the New Ross Perot? Or the Next Pat Buchanan?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

We all know what Donald Trump is saying and the issues he’s emphasizing. Many have noted the strong reactions of the media, pundits, and his business associates, some of whom have cut ties. Now the most recent surveys show Trump in the double digits among Republicans nationally. Two new polls have even found Trump ahead […]

Democrats 2016: Not Feeling the Bern

Despite big crowds, Sanders remains a huge underdog to Clinton

, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Buzz about Bernie has taken hold on the Democratic side of the 2016 campaign, and it’s easy to see why. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is drawing huge crowds and great poll numbers in the first two states to vote, Iowa and New Hampshire. It isn’t just that he’s speaking his mind, saying exactly what […]

The Democrats’ Mythical Third Term Obstacle

, Guest Columnist

Dear Readers: We have long suggested that one factor in the GOP’s favor in the 2016 presidential sweepstakes is a party’s difficulty in winning a third consecutive White House term. But there is another way to look at the subject that does not make the third-term hurdle seem so daunting, as Crystal Ball friend Prof. […]

President 2016: The Clash of Dynasties

Assessing where Clinton & Bush stand after their big speeches

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear Readers: We made a couple of much-needed improvements to our Crystal Ball website over the past week that we wanted to make sure you knew about. The first, which you’ll see at the top of online posts, are buttons to easily share Crystal Ball stories on social media sites like Facebook and Twitter. The […]

Ohio, New Mexico the Best Presidential Bellwethers

How all the states stack up over the past 30 elections

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Buckeye State, long recognized as perhaps the nation’s premier presidential swing state, deserves its status. In the 30 presidential elections since 1896, Ohio has correctly picked the winner 28 times. Ohio has company at the top though — it beats out another top presidential swing state, New Mexico, by only a hair. Like Ohio, […]

Mapping the Crystal Ball’s House Ratings

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Our friends over at Daily Kos Elections, a left-leaning site that produces reams of useful, nonpartisan political analysis and resources, just rolled out perhaps the best map of House districts we’ve seen. Visualizing our House ratings is challenging because of the wide disparity between district sizes. The smallest congressional district, that of retiring Rep. Charlie […]

The Myths of 2016

What everyone gets wrong about the election

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he and the rest of the Crystal Ball team take on the role of mythbusters, debunking some early conventional wisdom about the 2016 presidential contest. — The Editors We still have well over 500 days to the […]

The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is the Other Party

How negative partisanship is dividing Americans and shaping the outlook for the 2016 election

, Emory University

Which candidate will emerge from the crowded Republican presidential field next year? Can anyone stop or at least slow down Hillary Clinton’s seemingly inevitable march to the Democratic nomination? Will Democrats be able to match the GOP in Super PAC spending? And will there be new revelations about Clinton’s e-mails or the Clinton Foundation’s fundraising […]