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Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

Excerpt From Our New Book, Trumped: Polling in the 2016 Election and What It Means Going Forward

Examining the implications for public opinion surveys beyond the horse race

  Dear Readers: Our new book on 2016’s remarkable election, Trumped, is now available. Trumped features some of the nation’s sharpest political reporters and analysts breaking down an election that truly broke all the rules. The following is taken from Chapter 10 of the book, authored by Ariel Edwards-Levy and Natalie Jackson of Huffington Post, […]

Another Look Back at 2016

Comparing the exit poll and the Cooperative Congressional Election Study

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On election night in November, exit polls provided the first insight into how different demographic groups voted. But months later, other richer data sets are being released, and they provide researchers with new information about the election and the voters that participated in it. One such tool is the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, which is […]

The 2016 Presidential Vote: A Look Down in the Weeds

, Senior Columnist

If Hillary Clinton had won the presidency — and she took the popular vote by nearly 3 million — the narrative of the 2016 election would be far different. Rather than the storyline being Donald’s Trump triumph in the heartland, with its beleaguered blue-collar workers, the emphasis now would be on the Democrats’ ongoing success […]

Partisan Geographic Sorting

Where you live can change your partisan preferences

, Guest Columnist

Speaking at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, Barack Obama, then a candidate for the U.S. Senate, famously declared that “there’s not a liberal America and a conservative America; there’s the United States of America.” Obama then went on to decry political pundits who “like to slice and dice our country into red states and blue […]

The States That Vote Most Often for Presidents

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Ohio has retained its title as the state that has most often voted with the presidential winner over the last 120 years, even though it took a strong turn toward the Republicans this year. The Buckeye State voted for the winner for the 29th time in 31 elections this year, the best record of any […]

In 2016’s Game of Musical Chairs, the Music Stopped at the Wrong Time for Clinton

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After the Bay of Pigs debacle, when U.S.-backed forces tried and spectacularly failed to topple Fidel Castro’s nascent communist regime in Cuba, President John F. Kennedy held a press conference and took blame for the failure. Speaking on April 21, 1961 — just a few months into his presidency — JFK memorably declared, “There’s an […]

Watch Today’s American Democracy Conference

The Crystal Ball is coming out a day early this week because we wanted to invite our readers to watch the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ 18th annual American Democracy Conference, which is going on today from 9 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. at the Ronald Reagan Building & International Trade Center in Washington D.C. […]

16 For ’16

Bite-sized observations on a wild election

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball is taking the week off for Thanksgiving next week, but we’ll be back with another edition on Thursday, Dec. 1. Now that we’ve had a week to digest the results of the 2016 election, here are some observations about what happened and what the results might tell us about the […]

How Accurate Were the Political Science Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential Election?

, Guest Columnist

With the dust settling from one of the most brutal and nasty presidential campaigns in modern American history and with the late vote returns creeping up to a final count, it is time to take stock of the presidential election forecasts offered initially to readers of the Crystal Ball website and then published in the […]

Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa

, UVA Center for Politics

Well, what can we say — we blew it. We thought the signs pointed to Hillary Clinton winning the White House. We thought that even if she lost Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, her Midwestern “firewall” of states that not only had voted for Barack Obama twice, but hadn’t voted for a Republican since the […]

Our Final 2016 Picks

Clinton 322, Trump 216; 50-50 Senate; GOP holds House

, UVA Center for Politics

After a nearly two-year campaign — kicked off in December 2014 by Jeb Bush (remember him?) — we’ve come to it at last. Election Day is less than 24 hours away. And we know why you’re here: You just want the picks. So let’s cut to the chase. Table 1 shows our final selections for […]

Is Clinton Slipping?

There are more signs of erosion, but her floodgates appear to be holding

, UVA Center for Politics

Hillary Clinton has picked an awful time to hit one of the rough patches that has plagued her throughout the campaign. Now with just days to go until Election Day, there’s added uncertainty about the outcome. But while she may not be on the brink of an Electoral College win the size of Barack Obama’s […]

The Comey Effect

FBI director throws a curveball into the presidential race with a week to go; Clinton slips in ratings but retains clear edge

, UVA Center for Politics

The purest version of the “October surprise” is a political bombshell that no one sees coming. In the closing days of the craziest campaign in modern history, we have just been witnesses to an October surprise so pure it would qualify for an Ivory Soap commercial (“99 and 44/100 percent pure”). When FBI Director James […]

The State of Play With a Dozen Days to Go

Ratings changes in races for president, Congress, and governors

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Another week has passed in the presidential race and it appears that Donald Trump is not making up much if any ground on Hillary Clinton. Last month, we coined the term “Fortress Obama” to describe an outer and inner ring of defenses Clinton had against Trump as she sought to recreate Barack Obama’s Electoral College […]

An Historical Rarity: A Four-Party Presidential Election

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

There is no doubt that this is a high stakes election. It is not Tweedledum and Tweedledee, as former Alabama Gov. George Wallace famously said of the major parties when he ran as a third-party candidate nearly a half century ago. Almost everyone nowadays agrees that a Donald Trump presidency would take the nation in […]