Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 President’ Category

False Hope: Why Libertarians Won’t Help Republicans Win the Youth Vote

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Republican Party has a major problem with young voters. According to national exit polls, the GOP has lost the under-30 vote by a wide margin in every election since 2004. In 2012, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by a whopping 23 percentage points among 18-29 year olds. Romney’s deficit among young voters was responsible […]

Iowa Survives

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

While potential presidential candidates are just beginning to jockey for pole position for 2016, there has already been one clear winner: the state of Iowa. Its precinct caucuses have retained the leadoff spot in the next nominating cycle in spite of one of the most embarrassing vote counts in modern political history two years ago […]

Do Republicans Need a Frankencandidate?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he explores the tough choices the eventual Republican nominee may have to make in order to increase the GOP’s chances in 2016. — The Editors Did you ever see the documentary A Perfect Candidate? It was about […]

Americans Are Politically Divided and Our Feelings Toward the Parties Show It

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

How politically divided are ordinary Americans? The recent release of a report on polarization in public opinion by the Pew Research Center has reignited a debate among journalists and academics about the depth of the divisions between supporters of the two major parties. One of the key findings of the report is that supporters of […]

Picking Your Primary Poison

As Herbert Hoover discovered, meddling in primaries can backfire

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Analysts are noticing the Democrats’ efforts to meddle in Republican primaries. In a Wall Street Journal article from last month, Janet Hook writes “Democrats increasingly are running ads against GOP candidates even before they win their party’s nomination. By attacking GOP candidates while they are still embroiled in a primary election campaign, some Democrats have […]

Rebutting Early Overanalysis of Potential Democratic Vice Presidential Field

, Guest Columnist

If history is a guide, the 2016 Democratic vice presidential candidate won’t be designated for almost 27 months. That reality didn’t prevent vice presidential speculation from breaking out in a big way in response to President Obama’s recent nomination of San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro to be Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Some immediately […]

Mcdaniel’s ‘Friends and Neighbors’

The fallout from Tuesday’s primaries

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In his classic book Southern Politics in State and Nation, V.O. Key Jr. wrote about the importance of “friends and neighbors” in one-party southern elections. More than half a century after the book was written, strength at home powered yet another Deep South candidate. Tuesday night featured about as dramatic a race as we’ve seen […]

Barack Obama and Bill Clinton: Complementary Strengths

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Democrats can use all the assets they can find as they approach a midterm election that grows increasingly challenging. The polls are daunting. The electoral map for both the Senate and House is unfavorable. And history is rarely kind to the president’s party in midterm voting. But the Democrats have two significant assets in […]

The Politics of White House Firings

Would giving Shinseki the axe be good for Obama's poll numbers?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. In light of the recent scandal with the Veterans Affairs health system, this week he looks back at presidential firings to see if they actually proved beneficial to a president’s job approval rating. In the piece, we listed 35 […]

Nationalization of Senate Elections Poses Challenge to Democrats in 2014

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Democrats face several challenges in trying to maintain their majority in the U.S. Senate in the 2014 midterm election. In addition to the normal tendency of the president’s party to lose seats in midterm elections, Democrats are defending 21 of the 36 seats that are up this year including seven seats in states that were […]

Are Republicans Really Doomed Demographically?

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Much of the debate about elections today revolves around the “Emerging Democratic Majority” thesis, taken from the 2002 book of the same name. The thesis is pretty straightforward: Because of demographic changes, the GOP is on a path toward irrelevance unless it can remake itself and appeal to the rising electorate. The theory has congealed […]

The Minimal Class Divide in American Politics

Why Growing Economic Inequality Does Not Explain Partisan Polarization

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

How deep is the class divide in American politics today? According to some scholars and pundits, it is very deep indeed. In a recent post on the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, Larry Bartels of Vanderbilt University, the author of Unequal Democracy and a highly regarded public opinion scholar, presented evidence from a multi-nation public […]

How Veterans Vote

Not that differently from the rest of the electorate

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In Arkansas’ Senate contest, Rep. Tom Cotton (R) has a new ad that goes after Sen. Mark Pryor (D) for his comment that Cotton feels a “sense of entitlement” because of his military service. Cotton humorously utilizes his Army drill sergeant to talk about how his time in the military taught him “accountability, humility and […]

Is the Republican Presidential Vote Inefficiently Distributed?

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A number of months ago, I engaged in a spirited debate with Alan Abramowitz and Ruy Teixeira over whether there were “missing white voters” in the 2012 election upon which Republicans could potentially draw in the future to win elections. We also sparred over whether white voters were trending Republican, potentially offsetting Democratic gains among […]

Dynasty Isn’t Just for Monarchies Anymore

A Bush-Clinton matchup in 2016 would hardly be unusual. American politics is more of a family affair than you think.

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. With all the talk about the possible presidential candidacies of Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, this week’s piece highlights the fact that politics has often been a family business in the United States. — The Editors Hillary Clinton and […]