Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 House’ Category

Incumbent reelection rates higher than average in 2016

, UVA Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball will be away for the next two weeks. We’ll be back on Thursday, Jan. 5. We wish you and your family Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. — The Editors With Republican Sen.-elect John Kennedy’s triumph in the Louisiana runoff last weekend, victories by two other Republicans in Louisiana House races, and Gov. […]

Partisan Geographic Sorting

Where you live can change your partisan preferences

, Guest Columnist

Speaking at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, Barack Obama, then a candidate for the U.S. Senate, famously declared that “there’s not a liberal America and a conservative America; there’s the United States of America.” Obama then went on to decry political pundits who “like to slice and dice our country into red states and blue […]

Watch Today’s American Democracy Conference

The Crystal Ball is coming out a day early this week because we wanted to invite our readers to watch the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ 18th annual American Democracy Conference, which is going on today from 9 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. at the Ronald Reagan Building & International Trade Center in Washington D.C. […]

16 For ’16

Bite-sized observations on a wild election

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball is taking the week off for Thanksgiving next week, but we’ll be back with another edition on Thursday, Dec. 1. Now that we’ve had a week to digest the results of the 2016 election, here are some observations about what happened and what the results might tell us about the […]

Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa

, UVA Center for Politics

Well, what can we say — we blew it. We thought the signs pointed to Hillary Clinton winning the White House. We thought that even if she lost Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, her Midwestern “firewall” of states that not only had voted for Barack Obama twice, but hadn’t voted for a Republican since the […]

Our Final 2016 picks

Clinton 322, Trump 216; 50-50 Senate; GOP holds House

, UVA Center for Politics

After a nearly two-year campaign — kicked off in December 2014 by Jeb Bush (remember him?) — we’ve come to it at last. Election Day is less than 24 hours away. And we know why you’re here: You just want the picks. So let’s cut to the chase. Table 1 shows our final selections for […]

Is Clinton slipping?

There are more signs of erosion, but her floodgates appear to be holding

, UVA Center for Politics

Hillary Clinton has picked an awful time to hit one of the rough patches that has plagued her throughout the campaign. Now with just days to go until Election Day, there’s added uncertainty about the outcome. But while she may not be on the brink of an Electoral College win the size of Barack Obama’s […]

Incumbency, not Republican Gerrymandering, is the Main Obstacle to a Democratic House Majority

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With only a few days left in the 2016 election campaign, most national and swing state polls indicate that Hillary Clinton is favored to defeat Donald Trump in the presidential election. Democrats also appear to have a decent chance to pick up at least four Senate seats and thereby take back control of the upper […]


Ratings changes in races for president, Congress, and governors

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Another week has passed in the presidential race and it appears that Donald Trump is not making up much if any ground on Hillary Clinton. Last month, we coined the term “Fortress Obama” to describe an outer and inner ring of defenses Clinton had against Trump as she sought to recreate Barack Obama’s Electoral College […]

House 2016: Democrats gain in ratings

But the Republicans remain favorites

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

While there has not yet been a major breakthrough for Democrats in the House, their fortunes do appear to be improving, at least marginally. We’re making 11 ratings changes: nine favor Democrats, while two favor Republicans. Let’s start with the changes that boost the GOP. While Hillary Clinton is going to dominate Donald Trump in […]


Could Trump ruin what has otherwise been a decent Republican cycle?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

This may be a particularly bad time to write an update on the House. But we’re going to do so anyway, if only to explain why that is. Mainly, it’s because we’re in a very hazy period in the battle for control of the lower chamber — a battle that, it should be noted, the […]

Now We Wait

Let’s see how the debate impacts a tightening election

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear Readers: We’re operating on a slightly modified schedule this week and next. There will be no Crystal Ball on Thursday, Sept. 29, but we’ll be back with a special issue on Monday, Oct. 3. — The Editors The first debate is over! At least everyone survived. If you’re confused about who’s up and who’s […]

The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections, Part 5

Dear Readers: This is the final posting in a series of political science forecasts for the 2016 races for the White House and Congress. James E. Campbell, author of the new book Polarized: Making Sense of a Divided America, has assembled presidential and congressional forecasts from eight different individuals and/or teams this year. They were […]


But are they actually just Waiting for Godot?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In the famous Samuel Beckett play Waiting for Godot, two men are waiting for a third man, Godot, to arrive, but he never does. In the 2016 race for the House, the Democrats (and the Republicans) are waiting for Hillary Clinton to generate a down-ticket, anti-Donald Trump wave. If she does, the field could tilt […]

Generic Ballot Forecasting Model: Democrats Could Take Back Senate but Republicans Likely to Hold House with Reduced Majority

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Since the conclusion of the Republican and Democratic national conventions last month, pundits, political reporters, and ordinary Americans have, for understandable reasons, been preoccupied with developments in the presidential campaign. And the contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump has certainly provided plenty of material for serious political observers as well as late night comics. […]