Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2016 Governor’ Category

Incumbent reelection rates higher than average in 2016

, UVA Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball will be away for the next two weeks. We’ll be back on Thursday, Jan. 5. We wish you and your family Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. — The Editors With Republican Sen.-elect John Kennedy’s triumph in the Louisiana runoff last weekend, victories by two other Republicans in Louisiana House races, and Gov. […]

Partisan Geographic Sorting

Where you live can change your partisan preferences

, Guest Columnist

Speaking at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, Barack Obama, then a candidate for the U.S. Senate, famously declared that “there’s not a liberal America and a conservative America; there’s the United States of America.” Obama then went on to decry political pundits who “like to slice and dice our country into red states and blue […]

Watch Today’s American Democracy Conference

The Crystal Ball is coming out a day early this week because we wanted to invite our readers to watch the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ 18th annual American Democracy Conference, which is going on today from 9 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. at the Ronald Reagan Building & International Trade Center in Washington D.C. […]

16 For ’16

Bite-sized observations on a wild election

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball is taking the week off for Thanksgiving next week, but we’ll be back with another edition on Thursday, Dec. 1. Now that we’ve had a week to digest the results of the 2016 election, here are some observations about what happened and what the results might tell us about the […]

Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa

, UVA Center for Politics

Well, what can we say — we blew it. We thought the signs pointed to Hillary Clinton winning the White House. We thought that even if she lost Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, her Midwestern “firewall” of states that not only had voted for Barack Obama twice, but hadn’t voted for a Republican since the […]

Our Final 2016 picks

Clinton 322, Trump 216; 50-50 Senate; GOP holds House

, UVA Center for Politics

After a nearly two-year campaign — kicked off in December 2014 by Jeb Bush (remember him?) — we’ve come to it at last. Election Day is less than 24 hours away. And we know why you’re here: You just want the picks. So let’s cut to the chase. Table 1 shows our final selections for […]


Ratings changes in races for president, Congress, and governors

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Another week has passed in the presidential race and it appears that Donald Trump is not making up much if any ground on Hillary Clinton. Last month, we coined the term “Fortress Obama” to describe an outer and inner ring of defenses Clinton had against Trump as she sought to recreate Barack Obama’s Electoral College […]


Democrats and Republicans are showing strength in some unexpected places

They aren’t getting much national attention because of the races for the presidency and Congress, but this year’s gubernatorial contests seem to be just as confounding as the ones from 2014 — and they could produce some equally head-scratching results. Heading into Election Day 2014, polls in 11 of the 36 contested races showed a […]


, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Dear Readers: Larry J. Sabato, founder and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, will be the keynote speaker for the 54th annual Independence Day Celebration and Naturalization ceremony at Monticello, the home of Thomas Jefferson and a must-visit American treasure. This ceremony is the oldest continuous naturalization ceremony that takes place outside […]


, Guest Columnist

The 2012 election provided two powerful reminders about the electoral implications of overly-concentrated Democratic voters. First, the Republicans held their U.S. House majority, won in 2010, despite the fact that the Democratic candidates in the 435 House districts received more votes than their Republican opponents. Second, these House results were echoed by Democrat Barack Obama’s […]

Senate/Governor 2016: Several ratings move toward Democrats

Will 2016’s presidential coattails be long or short?

When you look at the big picture of presidential elections, and you try to discern the connection between the White House contest and the 34 Senate elections on the same ballot, it becomes obvious there are two types of years. The first type we might call “disjointed.” Voters seem to be separating their judgments about […]

The down-ballot outlook as 2016 approaches

Full Senate, House, and gubernatorial updates and ratings changes

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The upcoming battle for the Senate depends to a large extent on the presidential race; Democrats should gain House seats but not truly threaten the GOP’s big lower chamber majority; and Republicans are positioned to add to their already-substantial majority of governorships. That’s the early line on next year’s down-ballot contests as we prepare to […]

The Baffling Bayou

Edwards has a strong polling lead, but will it hold up?

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Based purely on poll numbers, the Louisiana gubernatorial race should be easy to call. State Rep. John Bel Edwards (D) leads Sen. David Vitter (R) by 11 percentage points in the current HuffPost Pollster average, a seemingly insurmountable lead with the runoff contest taking place just two days from now on Saturday. But these days […]

University of Virginia Center for Politics to host 17th annual American Democracy Conference in Washington

On Thursday, Nov. 19, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host the 17th annual American Democracy Conference in Washington, DC. The conference will feature leading journalists and political experts discussing the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries as well as the overall political outlook for 2016. The conference will be held at the Ronald […]

Ratings change: Louisiana gubernatorial race now a Toss-up

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After Gov.-elect Matt Bevin’s (R) strong victory in Kentucky last week — a nine-point win that surprised almost all political observers, including us — we’re again confronted with a difficult-to-handicap red state gubernatorial race, this time in Louisiana. There, Sen. David Vitter (R) appears to be trailing state Rep. John Bel Edwards (D) despite the […]