Sabato's Crystal Ball

2014 Senate Races

Updated April 15, 2014

Current outlook: Republicans net 4-8 Senate seats

To create your own Senate ratings map, check out the interactive map from our partner 270ToWin.com.

Note: Bolded candidate names indicate likely frontrunner for a nomination if there is one. *Indicates a special election.

State Incumbent Possible Primary Challengers Major Party Opposition Third party Party Rating
AK Mark Begich
(Running)
- Ex-State Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan
- LG Mead Treadwell
- 2010 nominee Joe Miller
Toss-up
AL Jeff Sessions
(Running)
Safe R
AR Mark Pryor
(Running)
- Rep. Tom Cotton - 2006 Gov candidate Rod Bryan Leans R
CO Mark Udall
(Running)
- Rep. Cory Gardner Leans D
DE Chris Coons
(Running)
Safe D
GA Saxby Chambliss
(Retiring)
- Ex-Sec. of State Karen Handel
- Rep. Jack Kingston
- Rep. Phil Gingrey
- Rep. Paul Broun
- Businessman David Perdue
- Minister Derrick Grayson
- Atty. Art Gardner
- Non-profit exec. Michelle Nunn
- Army veteran Todd Robinson
- Psychiatrist Branko Radulovacki
- Ex-state Sen. Steen Miles
- Libertarian Amanda Swafford Leans R
HI* Brian Schatz
(Running)
- Rep. Colleen Hanabusa General:
Safe D
D Primary:
Leans Schatz
IA Tom Harkin
(Retiring)
- Rep. Bruce Braley - State Sen. Joni Ernst
- Former Reliant Energy CEO Mark Jacobs
- Ex-U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker
- Radio host Sam Clovis
- Navy veteran Scott Schaben
Leans D
ID Jim Risch
(Running)
Safe R
IL Dick Durbin
(Running)
- State Sen. Jim Oberweis Safe D
KS Pat Roberts
(Running)
- Physician Milton Wolf - Shawnee County DA Chad Taylor General:
Safe R
R Primary:
Likely Roberts
KY Mitch McConnell
(Running)
- Businessman Matt Bevin - Sec. of State Alison Lundergan Grimes
- University of Louisville professor Greg Leichty
- L&N Railroad employee Robert Wilson
- Libertarian David Patterson
- 2010 KY-02 Dem nominee Ed Marksberry
General:
Likely R
R Primary:
Likely McConnell
LA Mary Landrieu
(Running)
- Rep. Bill Cassidy
- Ret. Air Force Col. Rob Maness
- State Rep. Paul Hollis
- Businessman Sammy Wyatt
Toss-up
MA Ed Markey (Running) - Hopkinton Selectman Brian Herr
- 2013 MA-05 nominee Frank Addivinola
Safe D
ME Susan Collins
(Running)
Ex-Exec. Director of the Maine ACLU Shenna Bellows Safe R
MI Carl Levin
(Retiring)
- Rep. Gary Peters - Ex-Sec. of State Terri Lynn Land Leans D
MN Al Franken
(Running)
- Businessman Mike McFadden
- State Sen. Julianne Ortman
- State Rep. Jim Abeler
- St. Louis County Commissioner Chris Dahlberg
- Farmer Monti Moreno
Likely D
MS Thad Cochran
(Running)
- State Sen. Chris McDaniel - Ex-Rep. Travis Childers
- Tea Partier Bill Marcy
General:
Safe R
R Primary:
Leans Cochran
MT John Walsh
(Running)
- Ex-Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger
- Rancher Dirk Adams
- Rep. Steve Daines
- State Rep. Champ Edmunds
Leans R
NC Kay Hagan
(Running)
- Businessman Will Stewart
-Greenville resident Ernest Reeves
- State House Speaker Thom Tillis
- Physician Greg Brannon
- Ex-Army nurse Heather Grant
- Rev. Mark Harris
- Ex-Shelby Mayor Ted Alexander
- 2004 LG nominee Jim Snyder
- Retired physician Edward Kryn
- Researcher Alex Bradshaw
- Libertarian Sean Haugh
- Libertarian Tim D’Annunzio
Toss-up
NE Mike Johanns
(Retiring)
- Ex-Treasurer Shane Osborn
- Midland University President Ben Sasse
- Banker Sid Dinsdale
- Atty. Bart McLeay
- Businessman Clifton Johnson
- Atty. David Domina
- Veteran Larry Marvin
- Rancher Jim Jenkins Safe R
NH Jeanne Shaheen
(Running)
- Ex-MA Sen. Scott Brown
- Ex-Sen. Bob Smith
- Former state Sen. Jim Rubens
- 2010 GOV candidate Karen Testerman
- Conservative activist Andy Martin
Leans D
NJ Cory Booker
(Running)
- Veteran Chris Isola? Safe D
NM Tom Udall
(Running)
- Former state party Chairman Allen Weh
- Atty. David Clements
Safe D
OK James Inhofe
(Running)
- Financial planner Matt Silverstein Safe R
OK* Tom Coburn
(Resigning)
- Rep. James Lankford
- State House Speaker T.W. Shannon
- Ex-state Sen. Randy Brogdon
- Paramedic Jason Weger
Safe R
OR Jeff Merkley
(Running)
- Physician Monica Wehby
- State Rep. Jason Conger
- Former county party chair Jo Rae Perkins
- IT consultant Mark Callahan
- Atty. Tim Crawley
Likely D
RI Jack Reed
(Running)
Safe D
SC Lindsey Graham
(Running)
- State Sen. Lee Bright
- PR firm owner Nancy Mace
- 2010 SC-03 candidate Richard Cash
- Atty Bill Connor
- Pastor Det Bowers
- Atty Benjamin Dunn
- Businessman Jay Stamper
- State Sen. Brad Hutto
- Libertarian Victor Kocher General:
Safe R
R Primary:
Leans Graham
SC* Tim Scott
(Running)
- 2013 state House candidate Randall Young - Richland County Councilwoman Joyce Dickerson
- Ex-York County Councilman Sidney Moore
- Atty Harry Pavilack
- Independent Jill Bossi Safe R
SD Tim Johnson
(Retiring)
- 1996 House candidate Rick Weiland - Ex-Gov. Mike Rounds
- State Sen. Larry Rhoden
- State Rep. Stace Nelson
- Atty Jason Ravnsborg
- Physician Annette Bosworth
- Ex-Sen. Larry Pressler
- Ex-state Sen Gordon Howie
Likely R
TN Lamar Alexander
(Running)
- State Rep. Joe Carr
- 2012 TN-9 nominee George Flinn
- Businessman John King
- 2012 candidate Brenda Lenard
- 2012 candidate Fred Anderson
- 2012 candidate Larry Crim
- Atty Terry Adams
- Atty Gordon Ball
General:
Safe R
R Primary:
Safe Alexander
TX John Cornyn
(Running)
- Physician David Alameel
- LaRouche activist Kesha Rogers
Safe R
VA Mark Warner
(Running)
- Ex-RNC chair Ed Gillespie
- Financial planner Shak Hill
- Ex-House staffer Tony DeTora
- Businessman Chuck Moss
-’13 Gov candidate Robert Sarvis Likely D
WV Jay Rockefeller
(Retiring)
- Sec. of State Natalie Tennant
- Developer David Wamsley
- Rep. Shelley Moore Capito - EX-TV anchor Martin Staunton Leans R
WY Mike Enzi
(Running)
- 2012 candidate Thomas Bleming - Former Catholic priest Charlie Hardy Safe R

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