Sabato's Crystal Ball

2014 Senate Races

Updated July 23, 2014

Current outlook: Republicans net 4-8 Senate seats

To create your own Senate ratings map, check out the interactive map from our partner 270ToWin.com.

Note: Bolded candidate names indicate likely frontrunner for a nomination if there is one. *Indicates a special election.

State Incumbent Possible Primary Challengers Major Party Opposition Third party Party Rating
AK Mark Begich
(Running)
- Ex-State Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan
- LG Mead Treadwell
- 2010 nominee Joe Miller
Toss-up
AL Jeff Sessions
(Running)
Safe R
AR Mark Pryor
(Running)
- Rep. Tom Cotton - 2006 Gov candidate Rod Bryan (Ind) Toss-up
CO Mark Udall
(Running)
- Rep. Cory Gardner - Neurosurgeon Steve Shogan (Ind) Leans D
DE Chris Coons
(Running)
Safe D
GA Saxby Chambliss
(Retiring)
- Businessman David Perdue - Non-profit exec. Michelle Nunn - Ex-Flowery Branch council member Amanda Swafford (Lib) Leans R
HI* Brian Schatz
(Running)
- Rep. Colleen Hanabusa General:
Safe D
D Primary:
Leans Schatz
IA Tom Harkin
(Retiring)
- Rep. Bruce Braley - State Sen. Joni Ernst Toss-up
ID Jim Risch
(Running)
- Atty Nels Mitchell Safe R
IL Dick Durbin
(Running)
- State Sen. Jim Oberweis Safe D
KS Pat Roberts
(Running)
- Physician Milton Wolf - Shawnee County DA Chad Taylor General:
Safe R
R Primary:
Likely Roberts
KY Mitch McConnell
(Running)
- Sec. of State Alison Lundergan Grimes - Police officer David Patterson (Lib) Likely R
LA Mary Landrieu
(Running)
- Rep. Bill Cassidy
- Ret. Air Force Col. Rob Maness
- Businessman Sammy Wyatt
Toss-up
MA Ed Markey (Running) - Hopkinton Selectman Brian Herr Safe D
ME Susan Collins
(Running)
Ex-Exec. Director of Maine ACLU Shenna Bellows Safe R
MI Carl Levin
(Retiring)
- Rep. Gary Peters - Ex-Sec. of State Terri Lynn Land Likely D
MN Al Franken
(Running)
- Businessman Mike McFadden
- State Rep. Jim Abeler
Leans D
MS Thad Cochran
(Running)
- Ex-Rep. Travis Childers Safe R
MT John Walsh
(Running)
- Rep. Steve Daines - Former MT Secretary of State nominee Roger Roots (Lib) Likely R
NC Kay Hagan
(Running)
- State House Speaker Thom Tillis - 2002 candidate Sean Haugh (Lib) Toss-up
NE Mike Johanns
(Retiring)
- Midland University President Ben Sasse - Atty. David Domina - Rancher Jim Jenkins (Ind) Safe R
NH Jeanne Shaheen
(Running)
- Ex-MA Sen. Scott Brown
- Ex-Sen. Bob Smith
- Former state Sen. Jim Rubens
- Conservative activist Andy Martin
Likely D
NJ Cory Booker
(Running)
- 1978 nominee Jeff Bell Safe D
NM Tom Udall
(Running)
- Former state party Chairman Allen Weh Safe D
OK James Inhofe
(Running)
-Veteran Paul Wyatt
- Activist D. Jean McBride-Samuels
- Retired air traffic controller Rob Moye
- Perennial candidate Evelyn Rogers
- Financial planner Matt Silverstein Safe R
OK* Tom Coburn
(Resigning)
- Rep. James Lankford - State Sen. Connie Johnson
- 2010 nominee Jim Rogers
Safe R
OR Jeff Merkley
(Running)
- Physician Monica Wehby Likely D
RI Jack Reed
(Running)
2008 & 2010 RI-2 nominee Mark Zaccari Safe D
SC Lindsey Graham
(Running)
- State Sen. Brad Hutto - Ex-state Treasurer Thomas Ravenel (Ind)
- SC Libertarian Party chair Victor Kocher (Lib)
Safe R
SC* Tim Scott
(Running)
- Richland County Councilwoman Joyce Dickerson - Ex-CPO of the American Red Cross Jill Bossi (American) Safe R
SD Tim Johnson
(Retiring)
- 1996 House candidate Rick Weiland - Ex-Gov. Mike Rounds - Ex-Sen. Larry Pressler (Ind) Likely R
TN Lamar Alexander
(Running)
- State Rep. Joe Carr
- 2012 TN-9 nominee George Flinn
- Businessman John King
- 2012 candidate Brenda Lenard
- 2012 candidate Fred Anderson
- 2012 candidate Larry Crim
- Atty Terry Adams
- Atty Gordon Ball
General:
Safe R
R Primary:
Safe Alexander
TX John Cornyn
(Running)
- Physician David Alameel Safe R
VA Mark Warner
(Running)
- Ex-RNC chair Ed Gillespie -’13 Gov candidate Robert Sarvis (Lib) Likely D
WV Jay Rockefeller
(Retiring)
- Sec. of State Natalie Tennant - Rep. Shelley Moore Capito - EX-TV anchor Martin Staunton (Ind)
- Ex-VA Del. John Buckley (Lib)
Likely R
WY Mike Enzi
(Running)
- 2012 candidate Thomas Bleming - Former Catholic priest Charlie Hardy Safe R

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