Sabato's Crystal Ball

Notes on the State of Politics

May 9th, 2013

U.Va. Center for Politics

2016 Presidential Update: The newest shiny object
Last week, intense speculation centered on freshman Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) possible presidential aspirations. The revelation has prompted all sorts of reactions, including a positive one from the unlikeliest of sources. While some have asked questions about his constitutional eligibility to run for the highest office in the land, [...]

Yearning for the Golden Age of Crisis Coverage…That Never Existed

Think the media blew their reporting on Boston’s bombing? JFK assassination coverage was worse.

April 25th, 2013

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

There were real victims in the Boston bombings last week — the dead, the wounded, the grieving families, the terrorized communities — but there was substantial collateral damage done to news media credibility.
We’ll leave to others the listing of specific winners and losers. Goodness knows, there have been enough scathing reviews published already. Innocent “bag [...]

Senate Update: Baucus Leaving Could Be Blessing in Plain Sight

April 25th, 2013

Kyle Kondik, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics

So maybe Brian Schweitzer really is senile enough for the U.S. Senate.
After the retirement of Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) earlier this week, the former Democratic governor is certainly at the top of the Democrats’ wish list to run for the now-open seat. Schweitzer, who was very popular during his recently concluded two-term governorship, has repeatedly [...]

Senate 2014: Blowouts as Bellwethers?

Just winning South Dakota and West Virginia probably won’t be enough for Republicans

March 28th, 2013

Kyle Kondik, Political Analyst

Consider these assessments of two 2012 Senate races, from Roll Call’s election preview published about a month before Election Day last year:
Nebraska: “The Senate race, once expected to be one of the top races of the cycle, has slipped away from Democrats ever since state Sen. Deb Fischer surprised many — even some of [...]

Multi-Member Districts: Just a Thing of the Past?

March 21st, 2013

Thomas F. Schaller, Guest Columnist

Given that at least a third of Americans identify strongly with neither major party, it seems anomalous that the two major parties boast all but two of the 535 members of Congress, 49 of 50 state governors, 99% of the nearly 7,400 state legislators nationwide and every American president for more than a century-and-a-half. Many [...]

“No Mas,” No Problem?

The potential silver linings of Democratic Senate retirements

March 14th, 2013

Kyle Kondik, Political Analyst

Dick Durbin (D-IL) is that rarest of Democrats these days — a senator who apparently contemplates but passes on retirement. While the Senate majority whip, who will turn 70 a couple weeks after Election Day 2014, is gearing up to run for a fourth term, four other Democrats have announced their retirements — Sens. Tom [...]

Why Section 5 Is Still Needed: Racial Polarization and the Voting Rights Act in the 21st Century

March 7th, 2013

Alan I. Abramowitz, Senior Columnist

Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the latest challenge to what many consider the most important civil rights law of the past century — the 1965 Voting Rights Act. The challenge involves Section 5 of the law, which requires nine states — all but two in the South — to obtain [...]

All Senators Are Equal, but Their Classes Aren’t

Why 2014's map is most favorable to the Republicans, and why it might not matter

February 28th, 2013

Kyle Kondik, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics

Make no mistake — this year’s Senate elections are being waged on Republican turf. But that’s not uncommon.
A third of all Senate seats are on the ballot every other November, which means that two-thirds of the Senate remains the same even after a federal election (special elections prompted by vacancies can create a bit more [...]

2014 Senate Ratings: Red Alert!

February 14th, 2013

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, U.Va. Center for Politics

We’ll grant you, most people now prefer to follow the candidates in a March 2013 election over in Rome, not the 2014 contests in the United States. But the Crystal Ball doesn’t analyze papabili and has all but endorsed Timothy Cardinal Dolan (our proffered populist yet saintly slogan for him: “He’s just like you, only [...]

What Would a Republican Renaissance Look Like?

January 17th, 2013

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

As you read this, the U.S. House Republicans are meeting in retreat at Williamsburg, VA. While some would argue this is a good choice of locale to get back to the Republic’s colonial roots and fundamental principles, others will say it augurs poorly for the GOP’s need to embrace the future with new ideas and [...]

Rockefeller Retirement Guarantees Republicans Nothing

January 11th, 2013

Kyle Kondik, Political Analyst

Sen. Jay Rockefeller’s (D-WV) decision to retire is a positive development for Republicans. But whether they can capitalize on it, and their other opportunities, is an open question.
There are 35 Senate elections coming up in November 2014 — 33 regularly scheduled and two specials (Hawaii and a second seat in South Carolina). Democrats currently hold [...]

Democrats Dread 2014 Drop-Off

January 10th, 2013

Thomas F. Schaller, Guest Columnist

At first blush, Saxby Chambliss and the Michigan right-to-work episode seem completely unrelated. Most Republicans approve of both, of course, but there is a deeper connection. The Georgia senator and Michigan’s effort to restrict organized labor’s power are both byproducts of a phenomenon that, despite the electoral problems currently facing Republicans, continues to favor the [...]

Help Us Track Gubernatorial, Senate Candidates

January 10th, 2013

U.Va. Center for Politics

With 38 gubernatorial contests and 35 Senate races to be decided during the next two years (and with perhaps more to come), there are a ton of names that get bandied about as possible candidates, particularly when there’s more than a year until the possibilities are winnowed down in primaries.
The churn of potential candidates changes [...]

Post-Election Book to Be Released Tuesday

January 10th, 2013

U.Va. Center for Politics

The University of Virginia Center for Politics is pleased to announce that our post-election book, Barack Obama and the New America: The 2012 Election and the Changing Face of Politics, will be released next Tuesday, Jan. 15.
To order the book — which is published by Rowman and Littlefield — click here.
Center for Politics Director Larry [...]

Closing the Book on 2012

December 20th, 2012

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, U.Va. Center for Politics

Now that we have official election results from nearly every state, we wanted to offer some closing thoughts on election 2012. So here are 10 bite-sized nuggets, an appetizer for your holiday feasts. As a programming note, we’re taking the next two weeks off to recharge for the next cycle. Our next issue of the [...]