Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2014 Senate’ Category

Marco Rubio’s Intriguing Presidential Bid

He’s a potentially strong contender for the GOP nod

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Early on Monday, news broke that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) will run for president, ending any uncertainty about his future and whether he would remain in the Senate. He was scheduled to officially announce his candidacy late Monday afternoon. As he enters the race, Rubio sits in third behind ex-Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) and Gov. […]

Are Voters Drifting Away?

For first time in 16 years, back-to-back cycles saw drops in raw turnout

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

For the first decade after Sept. 11, national elections showed a steady rise in voter turnout. The number of ballots cast in presidential elections jumped from 105 million in 2000 to a record 131 million in 2008, an increase of 25% in just eight years. Similarly, the midterm congressional turnout swelled from 66 million in […]

Now Available: the Surge, the Center for Politics’ New Book Analyzing the 2014 and 2016 Elections

The Surge, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ postmortem of the 2014 midterms and preview of the 2016 presidential election, is now available. Edited by Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and Sabato’s Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley and published by Rowman and Littlefield, The Surge: 2014’s Big GOP Win […]

Why Outside Spending Is Overrated

Lessons from the 2014 Senate Elections

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Koch brothers and their network of wealthy conservative donors recently announced that they intend to spend almost $900 million on the 2016 elections. This level of spending by a group operating independently of any candidate or political party would be unprecedented in American politics. In fact, it would exceed the combined spending by the […]

What a Drag

Why a party may well be better off losing the White House

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he examines the presidential party’s penalty for holding the White House: losing ground everywhere else. This article originally appeared in Politico Magazine on Dec. 1, 2014. Think of the billions the parties must raise to elect a […]

Louisiana Senate Runoff: Landrieu Appears Doomed

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A few months ago, Saturday, Dec. 6 loomed large on the political calendar. Might control of the Senate come down to a runoff in Louisiana between Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and Rep. Bill Cassidy (R)? Nope. With just a few days left to go in the campaign, the race is barely an afterthought: Republicans have […]

University of Virginia Center for Politics to Host 16th Annual American Democracy Conference

Today, Nov. 20, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host the 16th annual American Democracy Conference. The conference, which will be held at Alumni Hall on the Grounds of the University of Virginia, will feature panels of leading journalists and political experts focused on the results of the recent midterm elections and the […]

Republicans Looking Good in Louisiana Runoff

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Congress may eventually approve the Keystone XL pipeline, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) won’t be able to witness it as a member of the U.S. Senate. The Crystal Ball is moving the rating in Landrieu’s runoff race against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. We announced […]

14 From ’14: Quick Takes on the Midterm

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After going over the results from last week, we had a number of bite-sized observations to offer — 14, to be exact: 1. The polls really were worse than usual This cycle featured the largest average miss by the two major poll aggregators, RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster, in recent competitive Senate races. This isn’t a […]

Comparing Wave and Calm Elections

, Guest Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Is there something magical and mystical about the number five in elections? After the tsunami of 1994, there were five straight elections that were “calm elections” (1996-2004) and then five straight elections that could be considered wave elections. (A valid argument can be made that despite the size of the Obama win, Democratic gains in […]

Yup, It Was a Wave

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A version of this article originally appeared in Politico Magazine Wednesday evening. It might not have been 1994 or 2010, but 2014 was a wave all its own: A late-breaking surge that lifted Republicans to some surprisingly strong performances across the country. Notably, though, the argument for this election being a “wave” has more to […]

Crystal Ball 2014: So How’d We Do?

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Monday, we offered our final calls in all 507 of the Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. As of this writing, 490 of those races have been called for one party or the other, and we got 476 correct (97%). We did best in the category everyone was watching most closely, the battle for the […]

2014 State Legislative Election Wrap

, Guest Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After a day of double checking partisan composition numbers in the more than 6,000 legislative races this year, the extent of Republican success in this year’s legislative and governor’s elections is mostly clear. Suffice it to say, it was a banner election for the GOP. Republicans ran the proverbial table, taking the majority in 11 […]

The Crystal Ball’s Final 2014 Picks

Who we favor in all 507 of Tuesday’s Senate, gubernatorial, and House races

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

If you’re in Charlottesville tonight, please join the Crystal Ball team — Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley — for a free presentation on the 2014 midterms at 7 p.m. in Wilson Hall, Room 402 on the Grounds of the University of Virginia. Visit the U.Va. Center for Politics website for more information […]

State Legislative Elections Provide Down-Ballot Drama

, Guest Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

While the nation’s attention is fixated on the congressional and gubernatorial races, it’s important to remember that the vast majority of states this year will also decide their state legislative contests. Walking us through the state legislative picture once again this cycle is Tim Storey, one of the country’s top experts on state-level politics. Storey […]