Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2014 Senate’ Category

University of Virginia Center for Politics to Host 16th Annual American Democracy Conference

Today, Nov. 20, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host the 16th annual American Democracy Conference. The conference, which will be held at Alumni Hall on the Grounds of the University of Virginia, will feature panels of leading journalists and political experts focused on the results of the recent midterm elections and the […]

Republicans Looking Good in Louisiana Runoff

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Congress may eventually approve the Keystone XL pipeline, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) won’t be able to witness it as a member of the U.S. Senate. The Crystal Ball is moving the rating in Landrieu’s runoff race against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. We announced […]

14 From ’14: Quick Takes on the Midterm

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After going over the results from last week, we had a number of bite-sized observations to offer — 14, to be exact: 1. The polls really were worse than usual This cycle featured the largest average miss by the two major poll aggregators, RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster, in recent competitive Senate races. This isn’t a […]

Comparing Wave and Calm Elections

, Guest Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Is there something magical and mystical about the number five in elections? After the tsunami of 1994, there were five straight elections that were “calm elections” (1996-2004) and then five straight elections that could be considered wave elections. (A valid argument can be made that despite the size of the Obama win, Democratic gains in […]

Yup, It Was a Wave

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A version of this article originally appeared in Politico Magazine Wednesday evening. It might not have been 1994 or 2010, but 2014 was a wave all its own: A late-breaking surge that lifted Republicans to some surprisingly strong performances across the country. Notably, though, the argument for this election being a “wave” has more to […]

Crystal Ball 2014: So How’d We Do?

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Monday, we offered our final calls in all 507 of the Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. As of this writing, 490 of those races have been called for one party or the other, and we got 476 correct (97%). We did best in the category everyone was watching most closely, the battle for the […]

2014 State Legislative Election Wrap

, Guest Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After a day of double checking partisan composition numbers in the more than 6,000 legislative races this year, the extent of Republican success in this year’s legislative and governor’s elections is mostly clear. Suffice it to say, it was a banner election for the GOP. Republicans ran the proverbial table, taking the majority in 11 […]

The Crystal Ball’s Final 2014 Picks

Who we favor in all 507 of Tuesday’s Senate, gubernatorial, and House races

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

If you’re in Charlottesville tonight, please join the Crystal Ball team — Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley — for a free presentation on the 2014 midterms at 7 p.m. in Wilson Hall, Room 402 on the Grounds of the University of Virginia. Visit the U.Va. Center for Politics website for more information […]

State Legislative Elections Provide Down-Ballot Drama

, Guest Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

While the nation’s attention is fixated on the congressional and gubernatorial races, it’s important to remember that the vast majority of states this year will also decide their state legislative contests. Walking us through the state legislative picture once again this cycle is Tim Storey, one of the country’s top experts on state-level politics. Storey […]

Bet on a Republican Senate Majority

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Join the Crystal Ball team Monday night at the University of Virginia for a free presentation on the 2014 midterms. Visit the U.Va. Center for Politics website for more information and to register to attend. A version of this article originally appeared in Politico Magazine Wednesday evening. While many races remain close, it’s just getting […]

Senate Forecast: Cloudy With a Good Chance of a Republican Majority

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, the picture in several key races remains hazy. But when the dust settles, the most likely result is a Republican majority, as the Crystal Ball’s outlook of Republicans adding five to eight seats has long indicated. The GOP needs at least a net gain of […]

2014: A Tale of Two Elections

New 2014 Senate and House ratings

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

As we approach the home stretch, 2014 has turned into a tale of two elections. On the one hand, this is a classic sixth-year itch election where the incumbent president’s party is going to suffer losses in both houses of Congress. We’re just arguing about exactly how many. Overall, it is indisputable that Republicans will […]

What to Expect From Senate Polls in the Final Days

An analysis of polling from last three weeks of recent elections

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A few weeks ago, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver released a dataset of over 6,000 polls, all conducted within 21 days of the election. This trove of data dates back to 1998, and covers all manner of races: Senate, House, gubernatorial, and presidential. This allows us to build some expectations for what we might expect in the […]

The Kennedy Half Century Now Available in Paperback

MOOC also returns with new lessons

Available now: The Kennedy Half Century in paperback, featuring new interviews, scientific studies, and empirical data. Among the new material contained in the paperback edition: A well-placed CIA employee reveals what really happened inside agency headquarters on Nov. 22, 1963. New analysis that further demonstrates the unreliability of the police Dictabelt audio evidence from Nov. […]

Senate 2014: Roberts Slips in Kansas — And What’s Up in South Dakota?

Plus a slight upgrade for GOP House prospects

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Come January, Americans may witness something that, up to now, only 6% of the country’s population has ever seen: a senator from Kansas who is not a member of the Republican Party. That’s just one reason why the Sunflower State’s Senate race is the most interesting in the country with a month to go. Kansas […]