Sabato's Crystal Ball

2014 Senate Races

Updated July 23, 2014

Current outlook: Republicans net 4-8 Senate seats

To create your own Senate ratings map, check out the interactive map from our partner

Note: Bolded candidate names indicate likely frontrunner for a nomination if there is one. *Indicates a special election.

State Incumbent Possible Primary Challengers Major Party Opposition Third party Party Rating
AK Mark Begich
- Ex-State Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan
- LG Mead Treadwell
- 2010 nominee Joe Miller
AL Jeff Sessions
Safe R
AR Mark Pryor
- Rep. Tom Cotton - 2006 Gov candidate Rod Bryan (Ind) Toss-up
CO Mark Udall
- Rep. Cory Gardner - Neurosurgeon Steve Shogan (Ind) Leans D
DE Chris Coons
Safe D
GA Saxby Chambliss
- Businessman David Perdue - Non-profit exec. Michelle Nunn - Ex-Flowery Branch council member Amanda Swafford (Lib) Leans R
HI* Brian Schatz
- Rep. Colleen Hanabusa General:
Safe D
D Primary:
Leans Schatz
IA Tom Harkin
- Rep. Bruce Braley - State Sen. Joni Ernst Toss-up
ID Jim Risch
- Atty Nels Mitchell Safe R
IL Dick Durbin
- State Sen. Jim Oberweis Safe D
KS Pat Roberts
- Physician Milton Wolf - Shawnee County DA Chad Taylor General:
Safe R
R Primary:
Likely Roberts
KY Mitch McConnell
- Sec. of State Alison Lundergan Grimes - Police officer David Patterson (Lib) Likely R
LA Mary Landrieu
- Rep. Bill Cassidy
- Ret. Air Force Col. Rob Maness
- Businessman Sammy Wyatt
MA Ed Markey (Running) - Hopkinton Selectman Brian Herr Safe D
ME Susan Collins
Ex-Exec. Director of Maine ACLU Shenna Bellows Safe R
MI Carl Levin
- Rep. Gary Peters - Ex-Sec. of State Terri Lynn Land Likely D
MN Al Franken
- Businessman Mike McFadden
- State Rep. Jim Abeler
Leans D
MS Thad Cochran
- Ex-Rep. Travis Childers Safe R
MT John Walsh
- Rep. Steve Daines - Former MT Secretary of State nominee Roger Roots (Lib) Likely R
NC Kay Hagan
- State House Speaker Thom Tillis - 2002 candidate Sean Haugh (Lib) Toss-up
NE Mike Johanns
- Midland University President Ben Sasse - Atty. David Domina - Rancher Jim Jenkins (Ind) Safe R
NH Jeanne Shaheen
- Ex-MA Sen. Scott Brown
- Ex-Sen. Bob Smith
- Former state Sen. Jim Rubens
- Conservative activist Andy Martin
Likely D
NJ Cory Booker
- 1978 nominee Jeff Bell Safe D
NM Tom Udall
- Former state party Chairman Allen Weh Safe D
OK James Inhofe
-Veteran Paul Wyatt
- Activist D. Jean McBride-Samuels
- Retired air traffic controller Rob Moye
- Perennial candidate Evelyn Rogers
- Financial planner Matt Silverstein Safe R
OK* Tom Coburn
- Rep. James Lankford - State Sen. Connie Johnson
- 2010 nominee Jim Rogers
Safe R
OR Jeff Merkley
- Physician Monica Wehby Likely D
RI Jack Reed
2008 & 2010 RI-2 nominee Mark Zaccari Safe D
SC Lindsey Graham
- State Sen. Brad Hutto - Ex-state Treasurer Thomas Ravenel (Ind)
- SC Libertarian Party chair Victor Kocher (Lib)
Safe R
SC* Tim Scott
- Richland County Councilwoman Joyce Dickerson - Ex-CPO of the American Red Cross Jill Bossi (American) Safe R
SD Tim Johnson
- 1996 House candidate Rick Weiland - Ex-Gov. Mike Rounds - Ex-Sen. Larry Pressler (Ind) Likely R
TN Lamar Alexander
- State Rep. Joe Carr
- 2012 TN-9 nominee George Flinn
- Businessman John King
- 2012 candidate Brenda Lenard
- 2012 candidate Fred Anderson
- 2012 candidate Larry Crim
- Atty Terry Adams
- Atty Gordon Ball
Safe R
R Primary:
Safe Alexander
TX John Cornyn
- Physician David Alameel Safe R
VA Mark Warner
- Ex-RNC chair Ed Gillespie -’13 Gov candidate Robert Sarvis (Lib) Likely D
WV Jay Rockefeller
- Sec. of State Natalie Tennant - Rep. Shelley Moore Capito - EX-TV anchor Martin Staunton (Ind)
- Ex-VA Del. John Buckley (Lib)
Likely R
WY Mike Enzi
- 2012 candidate Thomas Bleming - Former Catholic priest Charlie Hardy Safe R

Recent Senate Analysis

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As Herbert Hoover discovered, meddling in primaries can backfire

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Analysts are noticing the Democrats’ efforts to meddle in Republican primaries. In a Wall Street Journal article from last month, Janet Hook writes “Democrats increasingly are running ads against GOP candidates even before they win their party’s nomination. By attacking GOP candidates while they are still embroiled in a primary election campaign, some Democrats have [...]

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House ratings changes
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