Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2014 Senate’ Category

Senate Forecast: Cloudy With a Good Chance of a Republican Majority

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, the picture in several key races remains hazy. But when the dust settles, the most likely result is a Republican majority, as the Crystal Ball’s outlook of Republicans adding five to eight seats has long indicated. The GOP needs at least a net gain of […]

2014: A Tale of Two Elections

New 2014 Senate and House ratings

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

As we approach the home stretch, 2014 has turned into a tale of two elections. On the one hand, this is a classic sixth-year itch election where the incumbent president’s party is going to suffer losses in both houses of Congress. We’re just arguing about exactly how many. Overall, it is indisputable that Republicans will […]

What to Expect From Senate Polls in the Final Days

An analysis of polling from last three weeks of recent elections

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A few weeks ago, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver released a dataset of over 6,000 polls, all conducted within 21 days of the election. This trove of data dates back to 1998, and covers all manner of races: Senate, House, gubernatorial, and presidential. This allows us to build some expectations for what we might expect in the […]

The Kennedy Half Century Now Available in Paperback

MOOC also returns with new lessons

Available now: The Kennedy Half Century in paperback, featuring new interviews, scientific studies, and empirical data. Among the new material contained in the paperback edition: A well-placed CIA employee reveals what really happened inside agency headquarters on Nov. 22, 1963. New analysis that further demonstrates the unreliability of the police Dictabelt audio evidence from Nov. […]

Senate 2014: Roberts Slips in Kansas — And What’s Up in South Dakota?

Plus a slight upgrade for GOP House prospects

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Come January, Americans may witness something that, up to now, only 6% of the country’s population has ever seen: a senator from Kansas who is not a member of the Republican Party. That’s just one reason why the Sunflower State’s Senate race is the most interesting in the country with a month to go. Kansas […]

Skewed

Why Americans hate the polls.

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he examines polling averages, finding that while they are a very useful source of information, they occasionally misfire. — The Editors “Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find […]

“Bombs Away” Tackles Lbj, Goldwater and 1964 Election

Ushered in age of negative campaign ads, highlighted by “Daisy” spot

Marking the 50th anniversary of the groundbreaking 1964 presidential campaign, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations have released the first trailer for their latest documentary, Bombs Away: LBJ, Goldwater and the 1964 Campaign that Changed It All. Scheduled for nationwide and international release later this fall, the one-hour documentary looks […]

Republican Chances of Senate Takeover Are Improving

But Kansas race complicates matters

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The race for the Senate is perceptively moving in the Republicans’ direction, but not so dramatically that we’re ready to call the race definitively for them. While we’ve long said the 2014 map and midterm dynamics make a GOP takeover of the Senate a probable outcome, there are just too many close races left and […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Gubernatorial and House changes, plus the early read on early voting

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Gubernatorial changes: Déjà vu for Coakley? We’ve got four gubernatorial ratings changes to make this week. The big one is in Massachusetts, where state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) can no longer be called a favorite over Charlie Baker (R), also his party’s 2010 nominee. The most recent polls have generally shown a dead heat, […]

Senate Ratings Changes: North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Minnesota

Plus gubernatorial updates

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Another week is down the drain in the race for the Senate, and while our overall outlook is unchanged — a five to eight seat gain for the GOP — some of our ratings are in need of adjustments. One of these comes as a surprise, as Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) is proving to be […]

Overtime: Five Reasons Senate Control Might Not Be Decided on Election Day

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Think the Senate will be decided on Election Day, Nov. 4? There are all sorts of reasons why you shouldn’t, unless in the next seven weeks one side or the other — probably the Republicans — starts opening up a clear lead in enough races to give them a clear majority. If neither side does, […]

Oops! They Weren’t Supposed to Win

November’s recent surprise winners, plus your suggestions

, The Crystal Ball Team

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week he took a look at races that featured upsets and surprising outcomes in Senate and gubernatorial contests since 2002. In the piece, he asked for readers to let us know if we missed any races worth mentioning, […]

What Is a Wave in the Senate?

Defining the undefinable as Republican chances inch upward

, U.Va. Center for Politics

For several months, we’ve held steady on our range of expected gains for Republicans in the Senate: a net of four to eight seats. With Labor Day in the rearview mirror and with less than 55 days to go until the midterms, we’re giving Republicans a slight bump: Our new range is a Republican net […]

Primary Particulars

Wrapping up the 2014 primary season with incumbent comparisons to 2010 and 2006

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After Tuesday’s contests in Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, primary season is essentially over. Only Louisiana remains, but it is in a class by itself with a unique “jungle primary” that takes place on what is general Election Day for every other state. Nothing is ever simple when compiling election stats, and we […]

Off to the Races

Our pre-Labor Day midterm assessment, and a handful of Senate, House, and gubernatorial rating changes

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Earlier this week we offered a pre-Labor Day assessment of the midterm state of play in the Senate, House, and gubernatorial races coming up in November. The conclusion of that piece, written in Politico Magazine, is as follows: The overall picture is this: A Republican Senate gain of four-to-eight seats, with a GOP Senate pickup of […]