Updated May 15, 2013
Members in italics hold seats that the other party’s presidential candidate won in 2012; nine Democrats hold seats won by Mitt Romney, and 17 Republicans hold seats won by Barack Obama. All nine Democrats are listed here; 13 of the 17 Republicans also make this list. The Republicans not listed are Reps. Peter King (NY), Erik Paulsen (MN), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL) and Dave Reichert (WA). *Signifies possible retirements or candidacies for other offices; **signals candidates vulnerable to primary challenge.
May 9th, 2013
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In winning his special election victory on Tuesday night, incoming Rep. Mark Sanford (R-SC) joined a dubious but sizable bipartisan House caucus: The Underachievers.
Many House observers — including the Crystal Ball — have focused, understandably, on the small number of House members elected from districts won by the other party’s presidential nominee. These represent obvious [...]
May 2nd, 2013
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A former Republican governor of a deeply Republican state is running for a deeply Republican U.S. House seat, but he is best known for claiming to be walking the Appalachian Trail while he was actually visiting his mistress in Argentina, and he has a court date two days after next Tuesday’s special election because he [...]
April 25th, 2013
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There were real victims in the Boston bombings last week — the dead, the wounded, the grieving families, the terrorized communities — but there was substantial collateral damage done to news media credibility.
We’ll leave to others the listing of specific winners and losers. Goodness knows, there have been enough scathing reviews published already. Innocent “bag [...]
April 4th, 2013
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One needs little more than just fingers and toes to count the number of House members who represent districts won by the other party’s presidential candidate in 2012. As mentioned here previously, just 25 House members — nine Democrats and 16 Republicans — hold such “crossover” districts. Compare that to 2004, when there were 59 [...]
March 21st, 2013
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Given that at least a third of Americans identify strongly with neither major party, it seems anomalous that the two major parties boast all but two of the 535 members of Congress, 49 of 50 state governors, 99% of the nearly 7,400 state legislators nationwide and every American president for more than a century-and-a-half. Many [...]
March 7th, 2013
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Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the latest challenge to what many consider the most important civil rights law of the past century — the 1965 Voting Rights Act. The challenge involves Section 5 of the law, which requires nine states — all but two in the South — to obtain [...]
February 7th, 2013
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The 2014 midterm elections are a long way off but one thing is already fairly clear: Democrats face an uphill battle in trying to win back control of the House of Representatives. Thanks in part to their control of redistricting in a large number of key states, Republicans easily managed to hold on to their [...]
February 7th, 2013
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If there are two adjectives that best describe the respective target lists of Democrats and Republicans in the House this cycle, it’s “potential” for the donkeys and “predictable” for the elephants.
For Democrats, the House map offers a number of potentially enticing targets, many of whom are unaccustomed to serious challenges. Sifting through these possible challenges [...]
January 31st, 2013
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It has been about two decades now that the two major parties switched roles in Washington. For much of the last half of the 20th century, Republicans dominated the White House while Democrats enjoyed a virtual monopoly on both chambers of Congress.
But since 1994, their basic spheres of influence have changed. It is the Democrats [...]
January 17th, 2013
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As you read this, the U.S. House Republicans are meeting in retreat at Williamsburg, VA. While some would argue this is a good choice of locale to get back to the Republic’s colonial roots and fundamental principles, others will say it augurs poorly for the GOP’s need to embrace the future with new ideas and [...]
January 10th, 2013
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At first blush, Saxby Chambliss and the Michigan right-to-work episode seem completely unrelated. Most Republicans approve of both, of course, but there is a deeper connection. The Georgia senator and Michigan’s effort to restrict organized labor’s power are both byproducts of a phenomenon that, despite the electoral problems currently facing Republicans, continues to favor the [...]
January 10th, 2013
The University of Virginia Center for Politics is pleased to announce that our post-election book, Barack Obama and the New America: The 2012 Election and the Changing Face of Politics, will be released next Tuesday, Jan. 15.
To order the book — which is published by Rowman and Littlefield — click here.
Center for Politics Director Larry [...]
December 20th, 2012
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Now that we have official election results from nearly every state, we wanted to offer some closing thoughts on election 2012. So here are 10 bite-sized nuggets, an appetizer for your holiday feasts. As a programming note, we’re taking the next two weeks off to recharge for the next cycle. Our next issue of the [...]
December 13th, 2012
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Ticket-splitters are getting rarer and rarer, at least based on the dwindling number of congressional districts where different parties won the presidential vote and the House seat. And that potentially reduces the number of targets for both sides as we examine 2014’s House playing field.
It appears that only about one of every 15 House members [...]
November 15th, 2012
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Programming note: The Crystal Ball is taking the week off for Thanksgiving next week, but we’ll be back with another edition on Thursday, Nov. 29.
So what can we glean from last week’s election? Plenty. Here are 12 takeaways from the 2012 election, presented in bite-sized pieces. One note: all vote totals and percentages used in [...]
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