Sabato's Crystal Ball

2014 House Ratings

Updated April 11, 2014

Current outlook: Republicans net 5-8 House seats

Competitive House seats

Members in italics hold seats that the other party’s presidential candidate won in 2012. A red-shaded seat in the Democratic column or a blue-shaded seat in the Republican column means that the incumbent party is an underdog to hold the seat.

Ratings of all 435 House seats

Ratings Changes: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and West Virginia

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Two statewide southerners are seeing their fortunes move in opposite directions, while the weight of both a party label and a barrage of negative advertising look increasingly likely to sink one of the longest-serving members of the House. Here are this week’s Crystal Ball ratings changes in four gubernatorial, Senate and House contests.
Table 1: Crystal [...]

Midterm 2014: Where Things Stand Now

Presenting the Crystal Ball’s 2014 range of outcomes in Senate, House and gubernatorial races

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Election Day 2014 is now almost exactly seven months away, which is both near and far.
On the one hand, more than half of the states — 29 of 50 — have passed their filing deadlines for major party candidates (the deadline in a 30th, Tennessee, is today). The late entries of Rep. Cory Gardner (R, [...]

Ratings Changes: Hawaii, Maryland and Michigan

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In addition to our new Crystal Ball Outlook for the House, Senate and gubernatorial races, we have a few tweaks to make to our ratings this week. To get our ratings changes as they happen, follow the Crystal Ball team on Twitter — @LarrySabato, @kkondik and @geoffreyvs — and check our website’s Ratings Changes page.
Table [...]

Putting Their Eggs in the Wrong Midterm Basket

Why Democrats’ increased reliance on young voters may lead them to struggle in midterm elections in the near future

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Barring significant changes in group voting habits, many commentators have argued that “The Coalition of the Ascendant” is positioned to give Democrats a notable edge in elections in the near future. There may be some truth to that supposition: The country is clearly getting more diverse, and nonwhite voters tend to vote strongly Democratic.
A key [...]

The End of Amendments?

Why state legislative polarization makes constitutional amendments increasingly unlikely

, Guest Columnist

This year marks the centennial anniversary of the first class of popularly-elected U.S. Senators, as mandated by adoption of the 17th Amendment. A hundred years later, several current or former Republican members of Congress, including Todd Akin (MO), Paul Broun (GA), Pete Hoekstra (MI) and Jeff Flake (AZ), have indicated their support for returning the [...]

It’s the Stupid Economy

A bad economy hurts Democrats in the midterms, but does a good one help them?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he examines whether or not an improved economic picture could potentially help Democrats stave off trouble in November 2014. — The Editors

Last week’s special election in Florida’s 13th congressional district, where GOP Rep. David Jolly upset Democrat [...]

The Limited Meaning of Florida’s Special House Election

, U.Va Center for Politics

Rep.-elect David Jolly (R, FL-13) overcame money, some internal division among Republicans, and a name recognition and prestige deficit to defeat Alex Sink (D) in a much-watched special election in Florida’s Tampa-area 13th Congressional District Tuesday night.
Republicans are of course gleeful about the results, and Democrats, despite immediately pledging to fight for the district again [...]

It’s Time to Increase the Size of the House

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

“Our founders put the first amendment first for a reason. It protects all Americans’ right to free speech, regardless of political affiliation or views.” This statement was made by former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) in 2007, but it expresses a commonly cited view among lawyers, judges, politicians and pundits.
In fact, what we today know as [...]

How Congressional Representation Has Changed Over the Past 50 Years

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In January, the release of the Census Bureau’s 2013 population estimates prompted the Crystal Ball to examine what the post-2020 projections for reapportionment might mean for the future shape of the U.S. House. While it’s fun to look at future projections, it’s also interesting to take a peek into the past to see how representation [...]

Deep-Sixing California

How a proposal to partition California into six states would impact the political landscape

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

California is such a massive state — if it were an independent nation, it would have the eighth-largest economy in the world — that it has long been the subject of partitioning proposals. Now a new plan is calling for the Golden State to be dismembered into six new states. The proposal could possibly go [...]

2014 House Forecast Update: No Wave in Sight

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The results of a simple but extremely accurate midterm election forecasting model indicate that the 2014 U.S. House elections are likely to result in minimal change in the party balance of power. The forecasting model uses three predictors — the current party balance of power in the House, the results of the last presidential election [...]

Toward a Perfectly Partisan House

A lower chamber with zero crossover isn’t imminent, but 2014 could bring us a little closer

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After the 2012 elections, there were only 26 members of the U.S. House who were elected from districts that their party’s presidential candidate didn’t win in the 2012 election. Nine Democrats were elected from districts Mitt Romney won, and 17 Republicans were elected from districts President Obama won. As we’ve previously mentioned, this is the [...]

Further Discussion of 2020 Reapportionment

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Theodore Arrington wrote a short response/supplement to my earlier piece on the Voting Rights Act. I wrote this response mostly because I think he and I actually agree on most of the matters he discusses, suggesting that I was unclear at crucial points.
Dr. Arrington discusses my analysis with respect to all three prongs of Gingles, [...]

Reanalyzing 2020 Reapportionment

, Guest Columnist

Sean Trende’s analysis in “The 2020 Reapportionment and The Voting Rights Act” is helpful, but I would like to supplement his analysis or present a slightly different take. His overall conclusion that it is becoming more difficult to maintain voting rights districts is accurate, although the problem is with the U.S. Supreme Court’s interpretation of [...]

The 2020 Reapportionment and the Voting Rights Act

, Senior Columnist

We’re pleased to announce that Sean Trende, the shrewd senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics, will be contributing regularly to the Crystal Ball. His first piece looks at the future of majority-minority House districts in northern states, and how in some instances it will be difficult to maintain these districts as some of these states lose [...]