Sabato's Crystal Ball

2014 Gubernatorial Races

Updated April 15, 2014

Current outlook: Democrats net 1-3 governorships


Note: Bolded candidate names indicate likely frontrunner for a nomination if there is one.

Chart 2: Crystal Ball 2014 gubernatorial ratings

State Incumbent Possible Primary Challengers Major Party Opposition Third party Party Rating
AK Sean Parnell
(Running)
- Ex-Exec. Director of Alaska Permanent Fund Byron Mallott - 2010 candidate Bill Walker Safe R
AL Robert Bentley
(Running)
- Former Morgan Co. Commis. Stacy Lee George
- Businessman Bob Starkey
- Ex-Rep. Parker Griffith
- Businessman Kevin Bass
Safe R
AR Mike Beebe
(Term-Limited)
- Ex-Rep. Mike Ross - Ex-Rep. Asa Hutchinson
-Businessman Curtis Coleman
Toss-up
AZ Jan Brewer
(Term-Limited)
- Sec. of State Ken Bennett
- Treasurer Doug Ducey
- State Sen. Al Melvin
- Mesa Mayor Scott Smith
- 2010 AG candidate Andrew Thomas
- Ex-GoDaddy executive Christine Jones
- Ex-CA Rep. Frank Riggs
- Former medical center CEO John Molina
- Ex-State Board of Regents Pres. Fred DuVal - Radio station owner Rick Murphy Leans R
CA Jerry Brown
(Running)
- Asm. Tim Donnelly
- Former Treasury Dept. official Neel Kashkari
- Anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan Safe D
CO John Hickenlooper
(Running)
- Secretary of State Scott Gessler
- Ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo
- Ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez
- Ex-state Sen. Min. Leader Mike Kopp
Leans D
CT Dan Malloy
(Running)
- 2010 nominee Tom Foley
- State Sen. Min. Leader John McKinney
- Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton
- Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti
- Atty. Martha Dean
- Businessman Joseph Visconti
Toss-up
FL Rick Scott
(Running)
- Conservative activist Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder
- Physician Joe Smith
- Ex-Gov. Charlie Crist?
- Ex-state Sen. Min. Leader Nan Rich
- Libertarian Adrian Wyllie Toss-up
GA Nathan Deal
(Running)
- Dalton Mayor David Pennington
- State School Superintendent John Barge
- State Sen. Jason Carter Leans R
HI Neil Abercrombie
(Running)
- State Sen. David Ige - 2010 nominee Duke Aiona Leans D
IA Terry Branstad
(Running)
- Conservative activist Tom Hoefling - State Sen. Jack Hatch Likely R
ID Butch Otter
(Running?)
- State Sen. Russ Fulcher - Boise School Board chair A.J. Balukoff Safe R
IL Pat Quinn
(Running)
- Venture capitalist Bruce Rauner Toss-up
KS Sam Brownback
(Running)
- Businesswoman Jennifer Winn - House Minority Leader Paul Davis Likely R
MA Deval Patrick
(Retiring)
- AG Martha Coakley
- Treasurer Steve Grossman
- Ex-federal health care official Donald Berwick
- Ex-Homeland Security official Juliette Kayyem
- Biotech exec. Joe Avellone
- 2010 nominee Charlie Baker Leans D
MD Martin O’Malley
(Term-Limited)
- LG Anthony Brown
- AG Doug Gansler
- State Del. Heather Mizeur
- Harford Co. Executive David Craig
- Delegate Ron George
- Ex-Ehrlich Cabinet secretary Larry Hogan
- 2010 House candidate Charles Lollar
- Retired firefighter Brian Vaeth
Likely D
ME Paul LePage
(Running)
- Rep. Mike Michaud - 2010 independent candidate Eliot Cutler Leans D
MI Rick Snyder
(Running)
- Ex-Rep. Mark Schauer Leans R
MN Mark Dayton
(Running)
- Hennepin Co. Commissioner Jeff Johnson
- State Rep. Kurt Zellers
- State Sen. Dave Thompson
- Businessman Scott Honour
- Ex-state Rep. Marty Seifert
- 2010 MN-08 candidate Robert Farnsworth
Likely D
NE Dave Heineman
(Term-Limited)
- State Aud. Mike Foley
- AG Jon Bruning
- State Sen. Beau McCoy
- 2006 Sen nominee Pete Ricketts
- State Sen. Tom Carlson
- Atty Bryan Slone
- Ex-Center for Rural Affairs Executive Director Chuck Hassebrook - Libertarian Mark Elworth Likely R
NH Maggie Hassan
(Running)
- State Sen. John Reagan?
- Consultant Andrew Hemingway
- Businessman Walter Havenstein?
Likely D
NM Susana Martinez
(Running)
- AG Gary King
- State Senator Linda Lopez
- State Sen. Howie Morales
- Fast Company magazine co-founder Alan Webber
- State Green Chamber of Commerce President Lawrence Rael
Likely R
NV Brian Sandoval
(Running)
Safe R
NY Andrew Cuomo
(Running)
- Westchester County Exec. Rob Astorino
- Businessman Donald Trump?
Safe D
OH John Kasich
(Running)
- Cuyahoga Co. Executive Ed FitzGerald - Libertarian Charlie Earl Likely R
OK Mary Fallin
(Running)
- State Rep. Joe Dorman Safe R
OR John Kitzhaber
(Running)
- Activist Ifeanyichukwu Diru - State Rep. Dennis Richardson
- Businessman Tim Carr
- Businessman Gordon Challstrom
- Real estate broker Bruce Cuff
- 2010 candidate Darren Karr
- Activist Mae Rafferty
Safe D
PA Tom Corbett
(Running)
- Conservative activist Bob Guzzardi - Ex-Revenue Sec. Tom Wolf
- Rep. Allyson Schwartz
- Treasurer Rob McCord
- Ex-head of PA Dept. of Env. Protection Kathleen McGinty
- Ex-Auditor Jack Wagner
Leans D
RI Lincoln Chafee
(Retiring)
- Treasurer Gina Raimondo
- Providence Mayor Angel Taveras
- Former Obama administration official Clay Pell
- Cranston Mayor Allan Fung
- 2012 Moderate Party nominee Ken Block
Likely D
SC Nikki Haley
(Running)
- 2010 nominee Vincent Sheheen - Ex-state Rep. Tom Ervin
- Libertarian Steve French
- Independent Morgan Bruce Reeves
Leans R
SD Dennis Daugaard
(Running)
- Ex-state Rep. Lora Hubbel - State Rep. Susan Wismer
- Businessman Joe Lowe
Safe R
TN Bill Haslam
(Running)
- 2010 candidate Donald Ray McFolin
- 2010 candidate Basil Marceaux
- Internet celebrity Mark Brown
- 2012 Senate nominee Mark Clayton
- Ex-Sullivan County Commissioner John McKamey
- Businessman Ron Noonan
Safe R
TX Rick Perry
(Retiring)
- AG Greg Abbott - State Sen. Wendy Davis Safe R
VT Peter Shumlin
(Running)
Safe D
WI Scott Walker
(Running)
- Financial planner Scott Paterick? - Madison School Board member Mary Burke Likely R
WY Matt Mead
(Running)
- Sup’dent of Public Instruction Cindy Hill
- Retired surgeon Taylor Haynes
Safe R


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