Sabato's Crystal Ball

Course Corrections: A Midterm Theory

What 1986 tells us about 2014’s Senate and gubernatorial races

June 6th, 2013

Kyle Kondik, Political Analyst

Over the next several weeks, we’ll run full updates on 2014’s House, Senate and gubernatorial races. But as an introduction we wanted to offer a little history about the ebb and flow of American politics from Ronald Reagan’s last midterm in 1986, a seemingly odd election that saw Democrats make big gains in the Senate [...]

So What Just Happened in Virginia?

A brief history of Old Dominion nomination battles

May 20th, 2013

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, U.Va. Center for Politics

Almost all states consistently use primaries to nominate their candidates for statewide office (U.S. Senate, governor, lower statewide elected officials), although there are some exceptions. Utah, for instance, uses a hybrid convention/runoff system, which readers will remember led to an incumbent U.S. senator, Robert Bennett (R), failing to even advance to a two-person primary in [...]

Yearning for the Golden Age of Crisis Coverage…That Never Existed

Think the media blew their reporting on Boston’s bombing? JFK assassination coverage was worse.

April 25th, 2013

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

There were real victims in the Boston bombings last week — the dead, the wounded, the grieving families, the terrorized communities — but there was substantial collateral damage done to news media credibility.
We’ll leave to others the listing of specific winners and losers. Goodness knows, there have been enough scathing reviews published already. Innocent “bag [...]

Three’s a Crowd: Bolling Passes on Virginia Gubernatorial Run

March 12th, 2013

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, U.Va. Center for Politics

There’s apparently nothing like a Bahamas vacation to remind someone that there’s more to life than politics.
After flirting with an independent bid for governor — and getting away to the Caribbean for a few days to clear his head — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R) announced that he will not run, leaving the two [...]

Red Alert, Part 2 – the Governors

February 21st, 2013

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, U.Va. Center for Politics

UPDATE: The Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik spoke with Paul Brandus of West Wing Report about this article. To hear the audio, click here.

A Star Trek fan quibbled (Tribbled?) with our piece last week, noting that the character James T. Kirk was actually an admiral, not a captain, during the movie Star Trek II: The Wrath [...]

Democrats Dread 2014 Drop-Off

January 10th, 2013

Thomas F. Schaller, Guest Columnist

At first blush, Saxby Chambliss and the Michigan right-to-work episode seem completely unrelated. Most Republicans approve of both, of course, but there is a deeper connection. The Georgia senator and Michigan’s effort to restrict organized labor’s power are both byproducts of a phenomenon that, despite the electoral problems currently facing Republicans, continues to favor the [...]

Help Us Track Gubernatorial, Senate Candidates

January 10th, 2013

U.Va. Center for Politics

With 38 gubernatorial contests and 35 Senate races to be decided during the next two years (and with perhaps more to come), there are a ton of names that get bandied about as possible candidates, particularly when there’s more than a year until the possibilities are winnowed down in primaries.
The churn of potential candidates changes [...]

Post-Election Book to Be Released Tuesday

January 10th, 2013

U.Va. Center for Politics

The University of Virginia Center for Politics is pleased to announce that our post-election book, Barack Obama and the New America: The 2012 Election and the Changing Face of Politics, will be released next Tuesday, Jan. 15.
To order the book — which is published by Rowman and Littlefield — click here.
Center for Politics Director Larry [...]

Closing the Book on 2012

December 20th, 2012

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, U.Va. Center for Politics

Now that we have official election results from nearly every state, we wanted to offer some closing thoughts on election 2012. So here are 10 bite-sized nuggets, an appetizer for your holiday feasts. As a programming note, we’re taking the next two weeks off to recharge for the next cycle. Our next issue of the [...]

Statehouse Rock, 2014: Can Republicans Sustain Their Gains?

December 6th, 2012

Larry J. Sabato and Geoffrey Skelley, U.Va. Center for Politics

One way or another, the fiscal cliff dilemma is going to produce a larger, wealthier federal government. Either going off the cliff pumps hundreds of billions in new tax revenues into the U.S. Treasury via the end of the Bush tax cuts, or avoiding the fiscal cliff pumps hundreds of billions in new tax revenues [...]