Updated Feb. 19, 2012
| State | Incumbent | Possible Primary Challengers | Major Party Opposition | Party Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | Jon Kyl (Retiring) |
- Rep. Jeff Flake - Businessman Wil Cardon |
-Ex-U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona - Ex-AZ Dem Chairman Don Bivens - Businessman David Crowe - The Rev. Warren Stewart? |
Leans R |
| CA | Dianne Feinstein (Running) |
- Activist Orly Taitz - 2010 CA-11 candidate Elizabeth Emken |
Safe D | |
| CT | Joe Lieberman (Retiring) |
- Rep. Chris Murphy - Ex-Sec. of State Susan Bysiewicz - State Rep. William Tong |
- 2010 Sen. Nominee Linda McMahon - Ex-Rep. Chris Shays - Atty Brian Hill |
Likely D |
| DE | Tom Carper (Running) |
- Businessman Kevin Wade | Safe D | |
| FL | Bill Nelson (Running) |
- Rep. Connie Mack - Ex-Sen. George LeMieux - 2010 Gov. candidate Mike McCalister - Businessman Ron Rushing - Catholic blogger Marielena Stuart |
Toss up | |
| HI | Daniel Akaka (Retiring) |
- Rep. Mazie Hirono - Ex-Rep. Ed Case |
- Ex-Gov. Linda Lingle - Ex-HI GOP Chairman John Carroll |
Leans D |
| IN | Richard Lugar (Running) |
- Treasurer Richard Mourdock | - Rep. Joe Donnelly | Likely R |
| MA | Scott Brown (Running) |
- Consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren - Immigration Atty Marisa DeFranco |
Toss up | |
| MD | Ben Cardin (Running) |
- State Sen. Anthony Muse | - Ex-Secret Service agent Daniel Bongino | Safe D |
| ME | Olympia Snowe (Running) |
- Tea Party activist Andrew Ian Dodge - 2006 ME-2 nominee Scott D’Amboise |
- State Rep. Jon Hinck - Ex-Secretary of State Matt Dunlap - State Sen. Cynthia Dill - Home builder Ben Pollard |
Likely R |
| MI | Debbie Stabenow (Running) |
- Ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra - Ex-Judge Randy Hekman - American Family Association MI president Gary Glenn - Businessman Peter Konetchy - Cornerstone Schools co-founder Clark Durant - Activist Chad Dewey |
Likely D | |
| MN | Amy Klobuchar (Running) |
- Army veteran Pete Hegseth? - Ex-State Rep. Dan Severson - St. Bonifacius city Councilman Joe Arwood - 2010 state sen candidate Anthony Hernandez |
Safe D | |
| MO | Claire McCaskill (Running) |
- Businessman John Brunner - Ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman - Rep. Todd Akin |
Toss up | |
| MS | Roger Wicker (Running) |
Safe R | ||
| MT | Jon Tester (Running) |
- Rep. Denny Rehberg - Farmer Dennis Teske |
Toss up | |
| ND | Kent Conrad (Retiring) |
- Ex-AG Heidi Heitkamp -Pastor Tom Potter |
- Rep. Rick Berg - Ex-Naval officer Duane Sand |
Likely R |
| NE | Ben Nelson (Retiring) |
- Univ. of NE Regent Chuck Hassebrook? | - AG Jon Bruning - Treasurer Don Stenberg - 2008 Sen. Candidate Pat Flynn - State Sen. Deb Fischer - Air Force vet Spencer Zimmerman |
Likely R |
| NJ | Bob Menendez (Running) |
- State Sen. Joe Kyrillos - Atty Ian Linker -Ex-Highlands Mayor Anna Little? |
Likely D | |
| NM | Jeff Bingaman (Retiring) |
- Rep. Martin Heinrich - Aud. Hector Balderas |
- Ex-Rep. Heather Wilson - 2008 NM-02 Candidate Greg Sowards |
Toss up |
| NV | Dean Heller (Running) |
- Rep. Shelley Berkley - Businessman Barry Ellsworth |
Leans R | |
| NY | Kirsten Gillibrand (Running) |
- Nassau Co. Comp. George Maragos | Safe D | |
| OH | Sherrod Brown (Running) |
- Treasurer Josh Mandel | Leans D | |
| PA | Bob Casey (Running) |
- Businessman Steve Welch - Ex-state Rep. Sam Rohrer - Former coal company owner Tom Smith - Manufacturing executive David Christian - Ex-Santorum aide Marc Scaringi |
Likely D | |
| RI | Sheldon Whitehouse (Running) |
- Businessman Barry Hinckley | Safe D | |
| TN | Bob Corker (Running) |
- Army vet Zach Poskevich | Safe R | |
| TX | Kay Bailey Hutchison (Retiring) |
- LG David Dewhurst - Ex-TX Solicitor General Ted Cruz - Ex-Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert - Ex-ESPN analyst Craig James |
- Ex-state Rep. Paul Sadler - Attorney Jason Gibson |
Safe R |
| UT | Orrin Hatch (Running) |
- State Sen. Dan Liljenquist - State Rep. Chris Herrod |
- Businessman Pete Ashdown | Safe R |
| VA | Jim Webb (Retiring) |
- Ex-Gov. Tim Kaine - Marine veteran Courtney Lynch - Veterans advocate Julien Modica |
- Ex-Sen. George Allen - Del. Bob Marshall - Tea Party activist Jamie Radtke - Atty David McCormick - Bishop Earl Jackson |
Toss up |
| VT | Bernie Sanders (Running) |
- Auditor Tom Salmon? | Safe D/I | |
| WA | Maria Cantwell (Running) |
- State Sen. Michael Baumgartner - TV anchor Philip Yin |
Safe D | |
| WI | Herb Kohl (Retiring) |
- Rep. Tammy Baldwin | - Ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson - Ex-Rep. Mark Neumann - State Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald - State Sen. Frank Lasee |
Toss up |
| WV | Joe Manchin (Running) |
- 2010 nominee John Raese | Likely D | |
| WY | John Barrasso (Running) |
Ex-Army paratrooper Thomas Bleming | Safe R |
December 29th, 2011
Ben Nelson and the Senate calculus
Sen. Ben Nelson’s (D-NE) decision to retire makes a Republican takeover of the Senate a little more likely, but just a little more. It does not dramatically change the Senate landscape.
Why? Because Nelson could easily have lost if he ran again. Still, out of deference to the powers of incumbency, [...]
December 22nd, 2011
,
Congress is very unpopular. In November, according to the Gallup Poll, only 13% of Americans approved of the job that Congress was doing. That tied the record set in October for the lowest approval rating in the history of the Gallup Poll. Moreover, according to another recent Gallup Poll, only 20% of Americans believe that [...]
December 1st, 2011
,
The Senate’s curious and byzantine rules and traditions are well explained in Robert Caro’s Master of the Senate, part of his sprawling, multi-volume biography of Lyndon B. Johnson (the fourth volume is scheduled to be released next year). Johnson, through his own cunning and ruthlessness, was arguably the most powerful Senate leader ever, as he [...]
November 17th, 2011
Perry the Pretender
Oh how the mighty have… oops.
Despite his best efforts to poke fun at his poor performance, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is feeling the consequences of his now infamous gaffe in last Wednesday’s debate. A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll reported that Perry’s now-meager support dropped from 8% to 4% in the days [...]
October 27th, 2011
Ex-Gov. Lingle is underdog in Hawaii Senate race
Strange doings are afoot in deep blue Hawaii, where the new Democratic governor, ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie, is the most unpopular governor in the nation according to one pollster, and the old governor, Republican Linda Lingle, is now mounting a credible bid for the state’s open Senate seat.
Democratic firm [...]
October 20th, 2011
Fight night in Nevada
Tuesday night’s Western Republican debate in Las Vegas was probably the most entertaining of the season, mostly because the top contenders — Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Herman Cain — all took some major hits. Romney, who has been the clear winner of most of these debates, probably still won this one, [...]
September 1st, 2011
,
The recent decision by ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) not to seek the seat of his retiring colleague, Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl, was a big moment for Republicans because it gave them yet another clean shot at a Democratic-held Senate seat. Feingold, still popular despite his reelection loss last year, would have been a favored quasi-incumbent [...]
August 4th, 2011
,
What a week it has been! As the political world recovers from its deep exhaustion and wonders about the fallout from the debt ceiling deal, it’s worth taking a step back.
First, let’s all remember that 15 months from now, when Americans go to the polls to vote for president and Congress, this summer storm—intense squall [...]
July 21st, 2011
,
Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer is expected to officially launch his presidential campaign today. His announcement again tests the famous philosophical question: If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?
Roemer, who the Crystal Ball has ranked dead last among 12 potential presidential contenders, [...]
June 23rd, 2011
,
As we take a fresh look at next year’s Senate races, one thing is clear: Barring an unexpected reelection landslide by President Obama, Republicans are at least slightly favored to take the Senate. It’s just a basic matter of numbers.
Republicans need to pick up either three or four seats, depending on whether they have the [...]
June 23rd, 2011
,
Bill Clinton is far from the only “comeback kid” in American politics. As we noted last week, many presidents have experienced election losses before they reached the promised land of the White House. A similar story can be told in the U.S. Senate, with 31* senators leaving the chamber only to return at a later [...]
May 26th, 2011
,
Right now, first-term Rep. Rick Berg (R-ND) looks likely to be elected to the Senate seat left open by the retirement of Kent Conrad (D) in November 2012. The Crystal Ball wondered: How rare is it for someone to get such a fast elevation from the House to the Senate? (We realize some House members [...]
May 19th, 2011
,
After two strong congressional cycles in 2006 and 2008, the Democrats were “shellacked” by Republicans in 2010. As the 2012 cycle approaches, uncertainty prevails for both parties: Each is trying to hold or expand its majority in one chamber while attempting to weaken and maybe topple the opposition in the other.
The Democrats built their current [...]
May 5th, 2011
,
Here at the Crystal Ball we want to encourage the work of promising young political scientists. This week, we are featuring the work of Harry Enten, a student at Dartmouth College who has an interesting take on next year’s Senate elections. Perhaps Harry’s prediction is a bit too optimistic for the Republicans, but this far [...]
March 10th, 2011
,
It’s time for a quick update on the 2012 Senate and Governor contests. Even though only two months have passed since our January roll-out, a surprisingly large number of shifts have occurred.
Partly because Senate Democrats pushed their potential retirees to announce early in the election cycle, we have witnessed a spate of farewells by the [...]
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