CLOSING THE BOOK ON 2012

Now that we have official election results from nearly every state, we wanted to offer some closing thoughts on election 2012. So here are 10 bite-sized nuggets, an appetizer for your holiday feasts. As a programming note, we’re taking the next two weeks off to recharge for the next cycle....

Post-election book will break down 2012

The University of Virginia Center for Politics is pleased to announce that its latest post-election book, Barack Obama and the New America: The 2012 Election and the Changing Face of Politics, is in final production, with a targeted release date of mid-January 2013. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato...

PRESIDENT TOO CLOSE TO CALL; DEMOCRATS HOLD SENATE EDGE PRIOR TO FINAL WEEKEND

Final predictions in Electoral College, other races, coming Monday

Remarkably, after a year of intense campaigning, this election is not in the bag for either major-party candidate. It remains on the edge of the butter knife; the state polling averages tilt the Electoral College slightly to President Obama, and the RealClearPolitics national polling average moved into an exact tie...

President and Senate: Where we stand now

There are a lot of fishy things going on in the presidential race. An incumbent president’s approval rating is historically a good indicator of how he will do on Election Day. By this measurement, President Obama should be in decent shape: according to the RealClearPolitics average from mid-day Wednesday, Obama’s...

Notes on the State of Politics

The Little Things Matter Many politicians may not want to admit it, but much of political success is built on timing and luck. In what is probably going to be a close election on Nov. 6, every small turn of fortune for each candidate could serve as the little push...

Rating changes: Two new toss-ups

Wisconsin now a presidential toss-up Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan hasn’t appeared to have had much of a polling impact nationally -- at least not yet -- but it has seemed to move the needle in Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin. Four Wisconsin polls have come out since the...

THOMPSON WIN BOOSTS SENATE REPUBLICANS

For the second straight week, the Crystal Ball is moving a toss-up Senate race to the Republican column. Now that ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson has captured the Republican nomination in Wisconsin -- winning with 34% of the vote in a crowded, four-way field -- we are installing him as a slight...

AKIN FAVORED IN MISSOURI

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) got the opponent she wanted. But she still enters the general election season as an underdog. Now that the Missouri Senate primary is complete, we are downgrading the incumbent Democrat’s chances from toss-up to leans Republican. Tuesday night’s surprise Republican primary winner, Rep. Todd Akin, has...