Updated Jan. 23, 2011
| Candidate | Key Advantages | Key Disadvantages | |
|---|---|---|---|
 |
Mitt Romney Former MA Gov. |
•Business background in bad economy •Looks the part •Weak field •Good fundraiser, been around the track •Blue state strengths (MI, NH) |
•Romneycare •Conservatives skeptical of him •Flip-flops •Religion •Minimal frontrunner •Inability to break through his low ceiling |
 |
Newt Gingrich Ex-House Speaker |
•100% Name ID •Eloquent speaker •Admired by GOP base •Presidential-level GOP experience |
•Polarizer •Unlikely to win in November •Personal baggage •Prickly persona |
 |
Rick Santorum Former PA Sen. |
•DC elective experience •Strong social issue conservative •Iowa appeal |
•Lost own Senate seat by 17% •Too conservative for general election |
 |
Ron Paul TX Congressman |
•Intense support among slice of GOP & Independents •Medium name recognition |
•Views on some subjects (such as Iraq) outside GOP mainstream •Advanced age, prior losses |
January 31st, 2012
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The moon over Miami was a blue moon for Newt, a bad moon rising for Gingrich. This moon’s shine was all for Mitt Romney, illuminating a moon river that seems set to eventually carry Romney to the Republican presidential nomination.
But how fast is “eventually?” In this roller coaster race, no one should pretend to know [...]
January 31st, 2012
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Back in September, the Crystal Ball examined the possible electoral impact of state-by-state unemployment figures because, after all, presidents are elected in 51 individual battles (50 states plus Washington, D.C.)
With the January jobs report to be released this Friday, we thought we would once again examine the state-by-state numbers, which are shown in Chart 1. [...]
January 31st, 2012
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Note: This article is cross-posted from Rhodes Cook’s political blog.
Up and down and all around the 2012 Republican presidential campaign has gone. It has probably been the craziest nominating race in the last generation.
And from this vantage point, the weirdest event of all thus far was the changing outcome in Iowa – from an 8-vote [...]
January 26th, 2012
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What can we expect from the Florida primary? What are the possible repercussions of a Gingrich victory versus those of a Romney win in the Sunshine State? Check out our latest Crystal Ball video by clicking on the picture. Below, we examine the Republican electoral situation and what a Gingrich candidacy might mean:
In the aftermath [...]
January 26th, 2012
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Note: This article originally appeared in the Jan. 24 edition of The Wall Street Journal.
Do endorsements matter? Politicians certainly think so, and they spend loads of time courting party elites and opinion-makers. So far, though, 2012 has shown how the politics of anointment and appointment can fail.
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley flopped mightily in trying [...]
January 21st, 2012
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This much is obvious: South Carolina has proven to be a disaster for Mitt Romney. The size of his defeat by Newt Gingrich — a 12%+ landslide in a four-way race — is virtually a repudiation of his candidacy in a state that has prided itself on picking the eventual nominee for 32 years. And [...]
January 19th, 2012
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While Mitt Romney may very well be on his way to winning the GOP nomination, he is not completely out of the woods yet. With so many primaries and caucuses left to be decided, it is perfectly possible that other candidates will win some of the remaining states as long as they stay in the [...]
January 12th, 2012
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Is Mitt Romney unstoppable? Will South Carolina risk its perfect primary record to back someone else? And will Ron Paul go all the way to the convention? Get our take — and answers to your Twitter questions — in our latest Crystal Ball video. Analysis of New Hampshire and a look ahead to South Carolina [...]
January 12th, 2012
Modern Cabinets: No “Team of Rivals”
With Mitt Romney leading in the Republican nomination battle, there has been talk of what kind of roles the other GOP candidates might occupy in a hypothetical Romney administration. Naturally, the first position discussed is vice president, but there has also been talk of Cabinet appointments, and it is [...]
January 5th, 2012
What a night! Tuesday night’s Iowa caucuses got the Republican primary season off to a rousing start, with Mitt Romney winning the narrowest of victories over Rick Santorum.
What do the Iowa results mean, and what should we expect in New Hampshire? Check out our first-ever Crystal Ball video to get our take. And with next [...]
January 3rd, 2012
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With tonight’s agonizingly close race in the Iowa caucuses, we decided to look back at other close primary calls through the years:
1972
Dems: May 2, Ohio – Humphrey 41.2, McGovern 39.6.
1976
Dems: April 6, Wisconsin – Carter 36.6, Udall 35.6; May 11, Nebraska – Church 38.5, Carter 37.6; May 18, Michigan – Carter 43.4, Udall 43.1.
GOP: Jan [...]
December 29th, 2011
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With the Iowa caucuses only five days away, we at the Crystal Ball wanted to suggest some possible electoral scenarios that could play out next Tuesday and beyond. Because we love history, and because the past is often prologue, each scenario has some historical precedent:
Scenario 1: Win in Iowa starts frontrunner on path to nomination
In [...]
December 29th, 2011
Ben Nelson and the Senate calculus
Sen. Ben Nelson’s (D-NE) decision to retire makes a Republican takeover of the Senate a little more likely, but just a little more. It does not dramatically change the Senate landscape.
Why? Because Nelson could easily have lost if he ran again. Still, out of deference to the powers of incumbency, [...]
December 29th, 2011
Next week, we are pleased to start our exclusive, online video series featuring University of Virginia Center for Politics Director and Crystal Ball founder Larry J. Sabato. We expect to post our first edition on Wednesday following the Iowa caucuses on Tuesday night. We will link to the video in next Thursday’s Crystal Ball, where [...]
December 15th, 2011
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The late Justice William Brennan, a master at marshalling Supreme Court majorities, knew how to count votes before deciding to accept a case. His colleague Justice Arthur Goldberg once thought he had secured Brennan’s agreement to contribute one of four votes required under the court’s rules to grant an appeal. Goldberg was stunned when Brennan [...]
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