On Dec. 3, 2013, President Obama hit his low point in approval as president, at least according to RealClearPolitics’ aggregate average of approval polling. That day, Obama fell below 40% for the first time in RCP’s measure, sinking to 39.8%, though he has since rebounded slightly to 42.1%. Two days...
Category: 2012 President
Measuring Virginia Vote Share
On the surface, the 2009 and 2012 Virginia elections didn't vary much
In 2009, now-Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) won the Virginia gubernatorial election in a 17-percentage point rout. Three years later, President Barack Obama (D) won Virginia by almost four percentage points en route to reelection. The obvious story centered around differences in turnout: In 2009, just 40.4% of registered voters turned...
Why Campaign “Game-Changers” Rarely Change the Game
We're pleased to feature a column by political scientists John Sides and Lynn Vavreck about their excellent new book, The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election. We heartily recommend it to anyone who wants to understand what did (and didn't) matter in 2012 and what factors are...
You’re Not From Around Here, Are You?
How migration does — or doesn't — change how a state votes
“I was born an American; I will live an American; I shall die an American.” -- Daniel Webster While Daniel Webster died an American in 1852, his political legacy does not belong to just one state, but two: New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Born in New Hampshire, Webster represented the Granite...
Demographics Overtakes Economy as Prime Presidential Election Indicator
One of the questions we asked prior to the 2012 election was whether or not state-level unemployment figures would matter much on Election Day. As it turned out, the answer was “probably not much.” Throughout the 2012 election cycle, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report became a highly...
CLOSING THE BOOK ON 2012
Now that we have official election results from nearly every state, we wanted to offer some closing thoughts on election 2012. So here are 10 bite-sized nuggets, an appetizer for your holiday feasts. As a programming note, we’re taking the next two weeks off to recharge for the next cycle....
Post-election book will break down 2012
The University of Virginia Center for Politics is pleased to announce that its latest post-election book, Barack Obama and the New America: The 2012 Election and the Changing Face of Politics, is in final production, with a targeted release date of mid-January 2013. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato...
12 FROM ’12: SOME TAKEAWAYS FROM A WILD ELECTION
Programming note: The Crystal Ball is taking the week off for Thanksgiving next week, but we’ll be back with another edition on Thursday, Nov. 29. So what can we glean from last week’s election? Plenty. Here are 12 takeaways from the 2012 election, presented in bite-sized pieces. One note: all...
Crystal Ball has another strong cycle
Despite a topsy-turvy, hurricane-interrupted election that looked closer a week ago than it actually was on Election Day, the Crystal Ball accurately projected Monday that President Barack Obama would comfortably win a second term in the White House. Our final projection had Obama winning 290 electoral votes. It now appears...
PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM
With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney,...
Impact of multiple recounts could go beyond borders
Almost everyone fervently hopes that the presidential election result is decisive, whichever way it goes. Few who went through the "overtime" election of 2000 would ever wish that on America again. But wishing may not make it so. Two politically experienced attorneys, Steven Okun and Thurgood Marshall, Jr., give us...
PRESIDENT TOO CLOSE TO CALL; DEMOCRATS HOLD SENATE EDGE PRIOR TO FINAL WEEKEND
Final predictions in Electoral College, other races, coming Monday
Remarkably, after a year of intense campaigning, this election is not in the bag for either major-party candidate. It remains on the edge of the butter knife; the state polling averages tilt the Electoral College slightly to President Obama, and the RealClearPolitics national polling average moved into an exact tie...
THREE’S A CROWD: WHERE THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATES MIGHT HAVE AN IMPACT
American electoral history is mainly a story of two parties. But every now and then, a third party or independent candidate makes a significant imprint on an election. In recent years, the main impact of third-party candidacies has been to play the role of spoiler, hurting one major-party candidate more...
President and Senate: Where we stand now
There are a lot of fishy things going on in the presidential race. An incumbent president’s approval rating is historically a good indicator of how he will do on Election Day. By this measurement, President Obama should be in decent shape: according to the RealClearPolitics average from mid-day Wednesday, Obama’s...
Unpacking the final debate
The conventional wisdom before the debate season was that President Obama would have the edge in a foreign policy debate, and the conventional wisdom was right. The president, through superior knowledge and having -- after four years -- a record that is defensible in the field, won the third debate...