Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2012 Governor’ Category

Post-Election Book Will Break Down 2012

The University of Virginia Center for Politics is pleased to announce that its latest post-election book, Barack Obama and the New America: The 2012 Election and the Changing Face of Politics, is in final production, with a targeted release date of mid-January 2013. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato has brought together top journalists […]

Projection: Obama Will Likely Win Second Term

, U.Va. Center for Politics

With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, with 290 electoral votes. This […]

President Too Close to Call; Democrats Hold Senate Edge Prior to Final Weekend

Final predictions in Electoral College, other races, coming Monday

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Remarkably, after a year of intense campaigning, this election is not in the bag for either major-party candidate. It remains on the edge of the butter knife; the state polling averages tilt the Electoral College slightly to President Obama, and the RealClearPolitics national polling average moved into an exact tie late Wednesday afternoon. On top […]

Gubernatorial and House Ratings Update

, House Editor

While other gubernatorial races may get closer as Election Day nears, right now the top gubernatorial tilts in the country are in two small but politically active states: New Hampshire and Montana. After winning their respective primaries on Sept. 11, ex-state Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) and lawyer Ovide Lamontagne (R), who narrowly lost the GOP […]

2012 Gubernatorial Update: Republicans Aim for Their High-Water Mark

, U.Va. Center for Politics

A record-tying year could be in store for Republicans in 2012. No, we’re not talking about Mitt Romney — even if he wins, Romney will not equal Richard Nixon’s 60.7% popular vote share in 1972 or Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984. Rather, Republicans can tie a record in another category: the number of […]

Notes on the State of Politics: Recapping Wisconsin

Walker’s Wisconsin win not necessarily a harbinger As soon as the recall of Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) was finalized in mid-March, the Crystal Ball made Walker a favorite, giving the race a rating of leans Republican. We upgraded his chances roughly two weeks ago to likely Republican, and he ended up winning by a relatively […]

Wisconsin Recall: Process Aids Walker

, Senior Columnist

Note: This article is cross-posted from Rhodes Cook’s political blog. At this point, the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election June 5 appears to be Republican incumbent Scott Walker’s to lose. While the bête noire of liberal Democrats and organized labor for his efforts to curtail the collective bargaining rights of state public employees, Walker has virtually […]

2012 Gubernatorial Update: In Wisconsin, Walker Hears Footsteps

, U.Va. Center for Politics

The four gubernatorial contests of 2011 have now passed, and despite some late drama — in the form of a closer-than-expected finish in the West Virginia special election — they all went as expected: Republicans retained seats in Mississippi and Louisiana, and Democrats kept control in West Virginia and Kentucky. That leaves 11 races to […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Ex-Gov. Lingle is underdog in Hawaii Senate race Strange doings are afoot in deep blue Hawaii, where the new Democratic governor, ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie, is the most unpopular governor in the nation according to one pollster, and the old governor, Republican Linda Lingle, is now mounting a credible bid for the state’s open Senate seat. […]

Updating the Governors Races

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Although the calendar for gubernatorial elections in the 2011-2012 cycle is relatively light since most of the action in statehouse races occurred last year, several notable contests are developing for this November and next. States such as Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, which happen to have been the three closest states in the 2008 presidential […]

The Early Line—Second Take: 15 Governorships of 2011-12

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

After a record-setting number of 37 governorships on the 2010 ballot, it is something of a letdown to see a mere 15 statehouses up for grabs in the off-year election of 2011 (just 4) and the 2012 general election (11 more). Statehouse contests are intrinsically interesting, and voters take them seriously. People know they can […]

The Early Line: 14 Governorships of 2011-12

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

After a record-setting number of 37 governorships on the 2010 ballot, it is something of a letdown to see a mere 14 statehouses up for grabs in the off-year election of 2011 (just 3) and the 2012 general election (11 more). Statehouse contests are intrinsically interesting, and voters take them seriously. People know they can […]