Sabato's Crystal Ball

2011-2012 Governor Ratings

Updated Feb. 6, 2012

State Incumbent Possible Primary Challengers Major Party Opposition Party Rating
DE Jack Markell
(Running)
Safe D
IN Mitch Daniels
(Term-limited)
- Rep. Mike Pence
- Businessman Jim Wallace
- Ex-IN House Speaker John Gregg
- Businessman Thomas Lenfert
Likely R
MO Jay Nixon
(Running)
- Packaging executive Dave Spence
- Businessman Bill Randles
Likely D
MT Brian Schweitzer
(Term-limited)
- AG Steve Bullock
- State Sen. Larry Jent
- Ex-Rep. Rick Hill
- State Senate Majority Leader Jeff Essmann
- Ex-State Sen. Corey Stapleton
- Ex-State Sen. Ken Miller
- National security consultant Neil Livingstone
- County Commissioner Jim O’Hara
- Ex-Transportation Director Jim Lynch
Leans R
NC Beverly Perdue
(Retiring)
- LG Walter Dalton
- Ex-Rep. Bob Etheridge
- State Rep. Bill Faison
- 2008 Gov. nominee Pat McCrory Leans R
ND Jack Dalrymple
(Running)
- 2010 Sen. candidate Paul Sorum - State Sen. Min. Leader Ryan Taylor Safe R
NH John Lynch
(Retiring)
-Ex-state Sen. Maggie Hassan
- Ex-state Sen. Jackie Cilley
- 2010 Sen. candidate Ovide Lamontagne
- Conservative activist Kevin Smith
- Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas?
Toss up
UT Gary Herbert
(Running)
- State Rep. Ken Sumsion
- 2010 UT-2 candidate Morgan Philpot
- Tea party leader David Kirkham
- State Sen. Karen Morgan? Safe R
VT Peter Shumlin
(Running)
- State Sen. Randy Brock Safe D
WA Christine Gregoire
(Retiring)
- Rep. Jay Inslee - AG Rob McKenna Toss up
WV Earl Ray Tomblin
(Running)
- Businessman Bill Maloney Leans D

Recent Governor Analysis

2012 Gubernatorial Update: In Wisconsin, Walker Hears Footsteps

, U.Va. Center for Politics

The four gubernatorial contests of 2011 have now passed, and despite some late drama — in the form of a closer-than-expected finish in the West Virginia special election — they all went as expected: Republicans retained seats in Mississippi and Louisiana, and Democrats kept control in West Virginia and Kentucky.
That leaves 11 races to be [...]

Notes on the State of Politics

Ex-Gov. Lingle is underdog in Hawaii Senate race
Strange doings are afoot in deep blue Hawaii, where the new Democratic governor, ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie, is the most unpopular governor in the nation according to one pollster, and the old governor, Republican Linda Lingle, is now mounting a credible bid for the state’s open Senate seat.
Democratic firm [...]

Updating the Governors Races

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Although the calendar for gubernatorial elections in the 2011-2012 cycle is relatively light since most of the action in statehouse races occurred last year, several notable contests are developing for this November and next. States such as Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, which happen to have been the three closest states in the 2008 presidential [...]

The Early Line—Second Take: 15 Governorships of 2011-12

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

After a record-setting number of 37 governorships on the 2010 ballot, it is something of a letdown to see a mere 15 statehouses up for grabs in the off-year election of 2011 (just 4) and the 2012 general election (11 more). Statehouse contests are intrinsically interesting, and voters take them seriously. People know they can [...]

The Early Line: 14 Governorships of 2011-12

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

After a record-setting number of 37 governorships on the 2010 ballot, it is something of a letdown to see a mere 14 statehouses up for grabs in the off-year election of 2011 (just 3) and the 2012 general election (11 more). Statehouse contests are intrinsically interesting, and voters take them seriously. People know they can [...]