Updated September 2, 2010
If the election were held today: + 8-9 Republican seats
| For individual analysis of each Senate race, click here. |
See our 2010 primary and filing deadline calendar here.
Only major candidates, as determined by the Crystal Ball, are listed below. Candidates are listed in order of their primary chances, with frontrunners at top. Incumbents seeking reelection are listed in bold.
September 2nd, 2010
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For decades I’ve advised students to let the facts speak for themselves, while avoiding the indulgence of shouting at the facts. In other words, we should take in all the available, reliable information; process it; and let the emerging mosaic tell its story—whether the picture pleases or not. The human (and partisan) tendency to twist [...]
August 26th, 2010
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At the Crystal Ball we receive many requests for information about the history of congressional elections, and there are many ways to look at this topic. In the two simple bar graphs below, we present one way to conceptualize a key part of the contests for Congress. How many incumbents lose for the House and [...]
August 19th, 2010
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Our astute political readership is well aware that the United States Senate has been divided into three classes since the beginning of the Constitutional Republic. That’s because, with a six-year term for each senator, only one-third of the Senate is elected every two years. Senators were elected by the state legislatures until the ratification of [...]
July 22nd, 2010
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One reason why people are attracted to politics is because, like sports, there are usually clear winners and losers. Moral ambiguity and shades of gray may overwhelm other sectors of life, but not the bottom-line of elections.
Only finality on November 2 really matters. Raising more money or winning a primary or seeing your opponent sink [...]
July 15th, 2010
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West Virginia Senate—It is looking very likely that we’ll have a 37th Senate election to noodle about, the extra being held in the Mountain State to choose the successor to the late Senator Robert C. Byrd (D), the longest serving member of Congress in history who passed away on June 28. At first, all indications [...]
July 8th, 2010
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With just four months to go before the voting in November, many races have settled in—falling into the D or R column as Solid, Likely, or Lean. But then, there are those stubborn toss-ups. Some are unmovable since the primaries haven’t yet been held and the nominees in one or both parties are unknown. Still [...]
June 24th, 2010
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On Tuesday, political junkies were treated to the latest in a seemingly unending series of primaries. Several critical statewide nominations were determined in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah. Our updates, written by the voters more than us, are below.
NORTH CAROLINA SENATE: The national political party hierarchies on both sides have had difficulty in this [...]
June 17th, 2010
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For all our current ratings please see our Crystal Ball website for Senate and Governor.
Governor
ALABAMA GOVERNOR: The Republican runoff, to be held July 13th, will be between first-place finisher Bradley Byrne and Robert Bentley, who edged Tim James by a handful of votes. It is now obvious that James is not going to pick up [...]
June 10th, 2010
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With the biggest primary night of 2010 now over, more and more of the midterm picture is coming into focus. The Crystal Ball brings you the following quick takes from the hottest Senate and Governor primary races that were decided this week:
ARKANSAS Senate: In the biggest upset of the June 8th primary night, two-term Sen. [...]
May 27th, 2010
The voters are mad as hell, and they’re not going to take it anymore.
In the wake of last week’s primaries, that is the conventional wisdom about the 2010 midterm elections among the Washington commentariat. Congressional incumbents of both parties are facing grave danger, the argument goes, as angry voters prepare to exact revenge at the [...]
May 20th, 2010
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The primary season is here, hot and heavy, and it has changed the Senate picture since our last update in April. Some of our individual race ratings have shifted, but our forecast still calls for sizeable Republican gains in November. Democrats are hoping that an improved economy will transform this portrait by the fall—and it [...]
April 29th, 2010
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For months now, this election has been compared to that of 1994, when Republicans scored huge gains and won both houses of Congress. It is a decent model. But given the recent passage of health care reform – something that did not happen in ’94 – this might be a good occasion to look at [...]
April 8th, 2010
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A lot has happened since our last Senate update in January. And yet overall, the balance hasn’t changed dramatically. Republicans are still likely to gain seats in a cycle that started off in 2009 looking good for Democrats. But how many new GOP senators will there be? It’s time for a dose of reality [...]
March 4th, 2010
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The 2010 primary season is under way, which at the congressional and gubernatorial levels is often no more than a quiet backwater in America’s electoral process. In recent years, only a few such incumbents have lost their bids for renomination, and only a handful more have had to break a sweat.
No sitting senator or governor [...]
February 15th, 2010
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Anybody who says Evan Bayh is retiring because he feared being defeated by ex-Sen. Dan Coats is dead wrong. Bayh was the clear favorite in that match-up, and Coats has been damaged by the lobbying and residency revelations about him over the last couple of weeks.
And that’s why this is such a setback for [...]
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