2010 HOUSE RESULTS: A PORTENT OF INCREASED COMPETITION?

Over the last generation a cottage industry has built up decrying the lack of competition in congressional elections. Not only have the House reelection rates been high, but so have the margins of victory. In each election from 1998 through 2008, no more than 15% of House winners were elected...

The Democrats’ Fab Four, Revisited

Sandwiched between the Democrats’ disappointing 2002 election cycle and their 2010 “shellacking,” the party made significant gains during the three, mid-decade intervening elections of 2004, 2006 and 2008. And nowhere were the party’s gains more impressive than in four states: Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. This quartet of states...

THAT UNEVEN GOP WAVE

A simple map of House gains in November 2010 is quite revealing. Source: Compiled by Joe Figueroa, U.Va. Center for Politics Every red dot represents a Republican pick-up (66 in all). The three blue dots are the sum total of Democratic takeovers in GOP districts (Delaware-AL, Louisiana-2, and Hawaii-1). The...

’94 AND ’10: SIMILARITIES, BUT DIFFERENCES TOO

The memorable Republican victories of 1994 and 2010 are already linked as the two largest midterm landslides of the last half century. But one was not a duplicate of the other. The GOP came out of this year’s election with more seats in the House of Representatives than they did...

2010 By the Numbers

SENATE 37 The number of Senate races on the November ballot, the most since 1962. 2 The number of appointed U.S. senators to survive the election, Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). The four others didn’t run: Ted Kaufman (D-DE), Roland Burris (D-IL), George LeMieux (R-FL), Carte Goodwin (D-WV)....

The Results Are In!

Tuesday night marked the end of yet another successful season for the Crystal Ball, the fifth congressional election cycle in which we have offered our predictions. It was a historic night for Republicans and a sobering one for Democrats who had seen the past two election cycles go their way....

Election Eve Special

SENATE The following are the closest Senate races as of election eve: AK, CO, IL, NV, PA, WA, and WV. The Crystal Ball predicts a net gain for Republicans of 8 seats in the Senate. They must pick up 10 seats to control the majority. GOVERNOR We have decided to...

THE CRYSTAL BALL’S FINAL CALLS

The time has finally come in this two-year election cycle to make the final calls. Thanks to everyone who has helped us by providing background info, tips, private polls, observations, and constructive criticism. We operate on the proverbial shoestring and we're outside the Beltway (a plus and a minus), so...

OCTOBER RESET

NEXT WEEK: The Crystal Ball makes its calls. We will update our overall numbers in every category, and pick a winner in each race. We'll be right in some, wrong in others. But hey, that's the fun of it! Join in our fun, same time, same place, October 28th. THIS...

House Race Changes

Polling, independent expenditures, and the general intensification of campaigns across the country provide us with new clues about the November outcome that is in store. Our overall view of the Republican wave remains the same, at a GOP net pick-up of 47 seats, but we now know more about which...

House Ratings Changes

With the Crystal Ball shifting 21 House race ratings in their direction last week, the national picture looks bright for Republicans, both from a birds-eye view and also from a race-by-race perspective. This week we nudge three more Democratic-held House seats into more competitive categories, as we hone in on...

House Ratings Changes

As Election Day nears, more of the House election picture comes into focus. While our overall view of the level of Republican gains remains unchanged at +47 seats, we are changing the ratings of many key races as the list of endangered seats, and their relative degrees of vulnerability, becomes...

Will the Republicans Win Back the House in November?

This week the Crystal Ball publishes a prediction that suggests the House majority may stay with the Democrats, written by Professor Alfred G. Cuzan of the University of West Florida. While Professor Cuzan makes a compelling case, the Crystal Ball’s unique dual method—examining all 435 House races individually and incorporating...

What to Expect in 2010

Predicting House Seats from Gallup’s Final Likely Voter Poll

The Gallup Poll’s final likely voter poll has proven to be a highly accurate predictor of the results of midterm elections for the House of Representatives. In 13 midterm elections between 1950 and 2006 for which Gallup estimated the preferences of likely voters, the correlation between the Republican margin among...

House Ratings Changes

GA-2 (Sanford Bishop-D): After nearly two decades in Congress in a Southwest Georgia district that is nearly 50% African-American, Democrat Sanford Bishop was not exactly at the top of many Republican target lists. Given the Republican wave that seems to be brewing, however, and the potential for a greatly diminished...