Sabato's Crystal Ball

2010 House Ratings

Updated November 1, 2010

If the election were held today: + 55 Republican House seats

For individual analysis of each competitive House race, click here.

All races not listed below are rated SAFE for the incumbent party.


Recent House Analysis

2010 House Results: A Portent of Increased Competition?

, Senior Columnist

Over the last generation a cottage industry has built up decrying the lack of competition in congressional elections. Not only have the House reelection rates been high, but so have the margins of victory. In each election from 1998 through 2008, no more than 15% of House winners were elected with less than 55% of [...]

The Democrats’ Fab Four, Revisited

, Guest Columnist

Sandwiched between the Democrats’ disappointing 2002 election cycle and their 2010 “shellacking,” the party made significant gains during the three, mid-decade intervening elections of 2004, 2006 and 2008. And nowhere were the party’s gains more impressive than in four states: Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.
This quartet of states has emerged as a purple battleground [...]

That Uneven Gop Wave

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A simple map of House gains in November 2010 is quite revealing.

Source: Compiled by Joe Figueroa, U.Va. Center for Politics
Every red dot represents a Republican pick-up (66 in all). The three blue dots are the sum total of Democratic takeovers in GOP districts (Delaware-AL, Louisiana-2, and Hawaii-1). The net Republican gain appears to settling in [...]

’94 And ’10: Similarities, but Differences Too

, Senior Columnist

The memorable Republican victories of 1994 and 2010 are already linked as the two largest midterm landslides of the last half century. But one was not a duplicate of the other.
The GOP came out of this year’s election with more seats in the House of Representatives than they did 16 years ago, but short [...]

2010 by the Numbers

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

SENATE
37
The number of Senate races on the November ballot, the most since 1962.
2
The number of appointed U.S. senators to survive the election, Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). The four others didn’t run: Ted Kaufman (D-DE), Roland Burris (D-IL), George LeMieux (R-FL), Carte Goodwin (D-WV).
1
The number of senators ever elected as write-in candidates. If [...]

The Results Are In!

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Tuesday night marked the end of yet another successful season for the Crystal Ball, the fifth congressional election cycle in which we have offered our predictions. It was a historic night for Republicans and a sobering one for Democrats who had seen the past two election cycles go their way.
Because we believe in fundamentals as [...]

Election Eve Special

, U.Va. Center for Politics

SENATE
The following are the closest Senate races as of election eve: AK, CO, IL, NV, PA, WA, and WV.
The Crystal Ball predicts a net gain for Republicans of 8 seats in the Senate. They must pick up 10 seats to control the majority.

GOVERNOR
We have decided to change our rating in only one contest: Connecticut Governor. [...]

The Crystal Ball’s Final Calls

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The time has finally come in this two-year election cycle to make the final calls. Thanks to everyone who has helped us by providing background info, tips, private polls, observations, and constructive criticism. We operate on the proverbial shoestring and we’re outside the Beltway (a plus and a minus), so we can always use the [...]

October Reset

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

NEXT WEEK: The Crystal Ball makes its calls. We will update our overall numbers in every category, and pick a winner in each race. We’ll be right in some, wrong in others. But hey, that’s the fun of it! Join in our fun, same time, same place, October 28th.
THIS WEEK: Below we list our latest [...]

House Race Changes

, House Race Editor

Polling, independent expenditures, and the general intensification of campaigns across the country provide us with new clues about the November outcome that is in store. Our overall view of the Republican wave remains the same, at a GOP net pick-up of 47 seats, but we now know more about which seats are truly endangered and [...]

House Ratings Changes

, House Race Editor

With the Crystal Ball shifting 21 House race ratings in their direction last week, the national picture looks bright for Republicans, both from a birds-eye view and also from a race-by-race perspective. This week we nudge three more Democratic-held House seats into more competitive categories, as we hone in on where exactly the GOP gains [...]

House Ratings Changes

, House Race Editor

As Election Day nears, more of the House election picture comes into focus. While our overall view of the level of Republican gains remains unchanged at +47 seats, we are changing the ratings of many key races as the list of endangered seats, and their relative degrees of vulnerability, becomes clear.
This week we are changing [...]

Will the Republicans Win Back the House in November?

, Guest Columnist

This week the Crystal Ball publishes a prediction that suggests the House majority may stay with the Democrats, written by Professor Alfred G. Cuzan of the University of West Florida. While Professor Cuzan makes a compelling case, the Crystal Ball’s unique dual method—examining all 435 House races individually and incorporating the result of statistical analysis [...]

What to Expect in 2010

Predicting House Seats from Gallup’s Final Likely Voter Poll

, Senior Columnist

The Gallup Poll’s final likely voter poll has proven to be a highly accurate predictor of the results of midterm elections for the House of Representatives. In 13 midterm elections between 1950 and 2006 for which Gallup estimated the preferences of likely voters, the correlation between the Republican margin among likely voters in the [...]

House Ratings Changes

, House Race Editor

GA-2 (Sanford Bishop-D): After nearly two decades in Congress in a Southwest Georgia district that is nearly 50% African-American, Democrat Sanford Bishop was not exactly at the top of many Republican target lists. Given the Republican wave that seems to be brewing, however, and the potential for a greatly diminished minority turnout in 2010, he [...]