March 11th, 2010
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AR-1 (OPEN-D): This seat being vacated by Democrat Marion Berry is in Republican territory, but a rare recruiting strike-out for Republicans this cycle now gives Democrats a better-than-even chance at retaining the seat. The Crystal Ball now rates the seat as Leans D.
MA-10 (OPEN-D): This week marked the end of the worst kept secret in [...]
March 4th, 2010
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The 2010 primary season is under way, which at the congressional and gubernatorial levels is often no more than a quiet backwater in America’s electoral process. In recent years, only a few such incumbents have lost their bids for renomination, and only a handful more have had to break a sweat.
No sitting senator or governor [...]
February 25th, 2010
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Just about everyone agrees that Republicans will be gaining a sizeable number of U.S. House seats come November, but this far in advance, few agree on the exact number. We’ve seen a couple of dozen predictions so far, and the range is from +10 GOP to +50 GOP—quite a spread.
To our knowledge, the Crystal [...]
February 25th, 2010
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It has only been a week since the Crystal Ball published our most recent comprehensive view of House races across the country, but political news abhors a vacuum and there already many new developments to report. All nine ratings changes this week benefit Republicans, further evidence of the many advantages they face across the country [...]
February 18th, 2010
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The last two U.S. House of Representatives elections have been Democratic landslides that have left them with a 79-seat majority. In 2006, Democrats picked up 29 seats on election night (exactly as the Crystal Ball predicted, by the way) and didn’t lose a single seat of their own, even adding another pick-up in a December [...]
February 11th, 2010
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Congress is very unpopular. Like President Obama, Congress has seen its approval rating decline in recent months. But Congress is a good deal less popular than the President. According to the Gallup Poll, Mr. Obama’s approval rating has been hovering in the vicinity of 50% recently but in December only 25% of [...]
February 11th, 2010
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The Crystal Ball moves PA-12 to “toss-up” following the passing of long-time Representative John Murtha. The vacancy sets up what will be the most hotly contested House special election since the NY-23 race last November. In a further parallel with the NY-23 special election, both party nominees will be chosen by party committees, instead of [...]
January 14th, 2010
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Once every decade–in years that end in zero–true political junkies get to spend an entire year basking in the glow of the national campaign over redistricting. For them, it’s like the Super Bowl, March Madness, the World Series, and the Daytona 500 all wrapped up in one, but spread out over dozens of key states. [...]
January 7th, 2010
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Recent announcements by four Democratic incumbents from marginal or Republican-leaning districts that they will not run for reelection next year have set off a wave of speculation by pundits and strategists over whether a wave of such retirements could put Democrats in serious danger of losing control of the House of Representatives in the 2010 [...]
December 17th, 2009
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How does a group where the majority of members voted in favor of health care reform get in the liberals’ doghouse? Just ask the Blue Dog Democrats. The Blue Dogs are a coalition of 52 fiscally conservative U.S. House members who have made headlines for their ardent negotiations with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Although [...]
October 8th, 2009
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DELAWARE- SENATE: Republicans got just the break they were hoping for in the Delaware Senate race. Republican Rep. Mike Castle will run, challenging the Vice President’s son, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden (D). Biden would have defeated any other Republican, but Castle is leading Biden in early polls. The Vice President has great sway, [...]
September 24th, 2009
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Could Democrats be heading toward an electoral disaster comparable to the 1994 midterm election in which they lost 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats, turning control of both chambers over to Republicans for the remainder of Bill Clinton’s presidency? Nobody is predicting such a dramatic turnaround in party fortunes just yet. But while [...]
September 24th, 2009
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When the Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994, few political pundits saw it coming. But such a prospect in 2010, particularly a GOP takeover of the House of Representatives, is already being discussed as a real prospect.
In 1994, Republicans gained more than 50 seats to win control of the House. Currently, [...]
September 10th, 2009
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While the next slate of House elections does not occur until 2010, congressmen and their challengers certainly don’t take off the “off-year.” Instead, this year is a crucial one for the parties who must prove their recruiting chops, for the incumbents who seek big fundraising numbers and positive headlines, and for the challengers who [...]
September 10th, 2009
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All sound electoral predictions are grounded in history. Astute observers look back over the electoral landscape of the past and pick the bits and pieces of past years that match the conditions of the present. The upcoming House of Representatives elections in 2010 require the same approach. With that in mind, the Crystal Ball [...]
Copyright (c) 2010 Larry Sabato and the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball. All rights reserved.
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