Sabato's Crystal Ball

Bob Riley (R) is term-limited.

Sean Parnell (R) is seeking a full-term.

Jan Brewer (R) is seeking a full-term.

Mike Beebe (D) is seeking reelection.

Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) is term-limited.

Bill Ritter (D) is not seeking reelection.

Jodi Rell (R) is not seeking reelection.

Charlie Crist (R) is running for the U.S. Senate.

Sonny Perdue (R) is term-limited.

Linda Lingle (R) is term-limited.

Butch Otter (R) is seeking reelection.

Pat Quinn (D) is seeking a full-term.

Chet Culver (D) is seeking reelection.

Mark Parkinson (D) is not seeking reelection.

John Baldacci (D) is term-limited.

Martin O’Malley (D) is seeking reelection.

Deval Patrick (D) is seeking reelection.

Jennifer Granholm (D) is term-limited.

Tim Pawlenty (R) is not seeking reelection.

Dave Heineman (R) is seeking reelection.

Jim Gibbons (R) is seeking reelection.

New Hampshire
John Lynch (D) is seeking reelection.

New Mexico
Bill Richardson (D) is term-limited.

New York
David Paterson (D) is not seeking reelection.

Ted Strickland (D) is seeking reelection.

Brad Henry (D) is term-limited.

Ted Kulongoski (D) is term-limited.

Ed Rendell (D) is term-limited.

Rhode Island
Don Carcieri (R) is term-limited.

South Carolina
Mark Sanford (R) is term-limited.

South Dakota
Mike Rounds (R) is term-limited.

Phil Bredesen (D) is term-limited.

Rick Perry (R) is seeking reelection.

Gary Herbert (R) is seeking a full-term.

Jim Douglas (R) is not seeking reelection.

Jim Doyle (D) is not seeking reelection.

Dave Freudenthal (D) is term-limited.

The Democrats’ Fab Four, Revisited

, Guest Columnist

Sandwiched between the Democrats’ disappointing 2002 election cycle and their 2010 “shellacking,” the party made significant gains during the three, mid-decade intervening elections of 2004, 2006 and 2008. And nowhere were the party’s gains more impressive than in four states: Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.
This quartet of states has emerged as a purple battleground [...]

’94 And ’10: Similarities, but Differences Too

, Senior Columnist

The memorable Republican victories of 1994 and 2010 are already linked as the two largest midterm landslides of the last half century. But one was not a duplicate of the other.
The GOP came out of this year’s election with more seats in the House of Representatives than they did 16 years ago, but short [...]

2010 by the Numbers

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The number of Senate races on the November ballot, the most since 1962.
The number of appointed U.S. senators to survive the election, Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). The four others didn’t run: Ted Kaufman (D-DE), Roland Burris (D-IL), George LeMieux (R-FL), Carte Goodwin (D-WV).
The number of senators ever elected as write-in candidates. If [...]

The Results Are In!

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Tuesday night marked the end of yet another successful season for the Crystal Ball, the fifth congressional election cycle in which we have offered our predictions. It was a historic night for Republicans and a sobering one for Democrats who had seen the past two election cycles go their way.
Because we believe in fundamentals as [...]

Election Eve Special

, U.Va. Center for Politics

The following are the closest Senate races as of election eve: AK, CO, IL, NV, PA, WA, and WV.
The Crystal Ball predicts a net gain for Republicans of 8 seats in the Senate. They must pick up 10 seats to control the majority.

We have decided to change our rating in only one contest: Connecticut Governor. [...]

The Crystal Ball’s Final Calls

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The time has finally come in this two-year election cycle to make the final calls. Thanks to everyone who has helped us by providing background info, tips, private polls, observations, and constructive criticism. We operate on the proverbial shoestring and we’re outside the Beltway (a plus and a minus), so we can always use the [...]

October Reset

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

NEXT WEEK: The Crystal Ball makes its calls. We will update our overall numbers in every category, and pick a winner in each race. We’ll be right in some, wrong in others. But hey, that’s the fun of it! Join in our fun, same time, same place, October 28th.
THIS WEEK: Below we list our latest [...]

The Outlook for November 2nd

As of October 14th

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

As alert readers of the Crystal Ball will note, we have not changed our projection of +47 Republican net House seats in many weeks. We made this prediction prior to Labor Day, and we were the first to say definitively that, in our estimate, the new House would be controlled by the GOP. At the [...]

The Ones That Got Away

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

In every election cycle there are contests that one party “should” win but does not, usually because its partisans have chosen unwisely in the party primary. These are the ones that got away, to the consternation of party leaders who want to win above all else.
Before identifying these lost (or possibly lost) contests, let’s remember [...]

Midterm Morsels

Senate and Governor Ratings Changes and Check-Ups

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

For now, we are comfortable with the overall projections that we have in the Senate (+7-8 Republican seats) and for Governorships (+8 Republican seats). But that doesn’t mean all the individual contests around the country are static. We have a few ratings changes to announce, and the Crystal Ball also has other races on a [...]

Midterm Morsels

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Below we list some changes to our Senate and Governor ratings in a few key states, as well as a smattering of thoughts on a few other races of note. Next week the Crystal Ball will revisit some of our House ratings, with several significant changes in the works. Stay tuned.

Midterm Morsels

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Just having issued our Labor Day predictions, we’re not quite ready to call any of the remaining toss-ups or change any ratings (with one prominent exception), but we thought we’d share our current inclinations on a few of them in “nutshell” form.
Colorado Senate: After a visit last week, it’s more obvious than ever that [...]

Sixty Days to Go

The Crystal Ball's Labor Day Predictions

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

For decades I’ve advised students to let the facts speak for themselves, while avoiding the indulgence of shouting at the facts. In other words, we should take in all the available, reliable information; process it; and let the emerging mosaic tell its story—whether the picture pleases or not. The human (and partisan) tendency to twist [...]

Caught in the Tide

Using the Generic Ballot to Forecast Gubernatorial Elections

, Senior Columnist

Governors are key players in the American federal system. In addition to administering complex bureaucratic organizations with vital responsibilities and multi-billion dollar budgets, they are expected to propose their own legislative programs, work closely with their state’s congressional delegation, communicate their goals to the public, and lead their state parties in elections. Moreover, [...]

Winners & Losers in the Game of Political Life

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

One reason why people are attracted to politics is because, like sports, there are usually clear winners and losers. Moral ambiguity and shades of gray may overwhelm other sectors of life, but not the bottom-line of elections.
Only finality on November 2 really matters. Raising more money or winning a primary or seeing your opponent sink [...]