Updated September 2, 2010
If the election were held today: + 8 Republican governorships
| For individual analysis of each governor race, click here. |
See our 2010 primary and filing deadline calendar here.
Only major candidates, as determined by the Crystal Ball, are listed below. Candidates are listed in order of their primary chances, with frontrunners at top. Incumbents seeking reelection are listed in bold.
September 2nd, 2010
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For decades I’ve advised students to let the facts speak for themselves, while avoiding the indulgence of shouting at the facts. In other words, we should take in all the available, reliable information; process it; and let the emerging mosaic tell its story—whether the picture pleases or not. The human (and partisan) tendency to twist [...]
August 12th, 2010
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Governors are key players in the American federal system. In addition to administering complex bureaucratic organizations with vital responsibilities and multi-billion dollar budgets, they are expected to propose their own legislative programs, work closely with their state’s congressional delegation, communicate their goals to the public, and lead their state parties in elections. Moreover, [...]
July 22nd, 2010
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One reason why people are attracted to politics is because, like sports, there are usually clear winners and losers. Moral ambiguity and shades of gray may overwhelm other sectors of life, but not the bottom-line of elections.
Only finality on November 2 really matters. Raising more money or winning a primary or seeing your opponent sink [...]
July 15th, 2010
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West Virginia Senate—It is looking very likely that we’ll have a 37th Senate election to noodle about, the extra being held in the Mountain State to choose the successor to the late Senator Robert C. Byrd (D), the longest serving member of Congress in history who passed away on June 28. At first, all indications [...]
July 8th, 2010
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With just four months to go before the voting in November, many races have settled in—falling into the D or R column as Solid, Likely, or Lean. But then, there are those stubborn toss-ups. Some are unmovable since the primaries haven’t yet been held and the nominees in one or both parties are unknown. Still [...]
June 24th, 2010
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On Tuesday, political junkies were treated to the latest in a seemingly unending series of primaries. Several critical statewide nominations were determined in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah. Our updates, written by the voters more than us, are below.
NORTH CAROLINA SENATE: The national political party hierarchies on both sides have had difficulty in this [...]
June 17th, 2010
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For all our current ratings please see our Crystal Ball website for Senate and Governor.
Governor
ALABAMA GOVERNOR: The Republican runoff, to be held July 13th, will be between first-place finisher Bradley Byrne and Robert Bentley, who edged Tim James by a handful of votes. It is now obvious that James is not going to pick up [...]
June 10th, 2010
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With the biggest primary night of 2010 now over, more and more of the midterm picture is coming into focus. The Crystal Ball brings you the following quick takes from the hottest Senate and Governor primary races that were decided this week:
ARKANSAS Senate: In the biggest upset of the June 8th primary night, two-term Sen. [...]
June 3rd, 2010
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There’s now no question that the gubernatorial turnover in November will be historic, with half or more of the states electing new governors (see our previous article on the subject here). With 37 of the 50 states electing governors, and 23 of those states having no incumbent running with additional incumbents in serious electoral trouble, [...]
April 29th, 2010
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For months now, this election has been compared to that of 1994, when Republicans scored huge gains and won both houses of Congress. It is a decent model. But given the recent passage of health care reform – something that did not happen in ’94 – this might be a good occasion to look at [...]
April 22nd, 2010
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Political observers have had their attention directed to state attorneys general of late, due to the court suits against the federal health care reform bill initially filed by fifteen AGs (14 of them Republican, and a lone Democrat from Louisiana). With twenty or more states now signed on to the lawsuits, attorneys general are in [...]
March 18th, 2010
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Back in 1980, the Washington Post’s David S. Broder wrote a notable book, The Changing of the Guard, about the generational turnover of national and state leadership occurring at that time. It’s happening all over again. We’ll see dozens of congressional seats switching hands and sides in November, but the greatest transformation will be [...]
March 4th, 2010
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The 2010 primary season is under way, which at the congressional and gubernatorial levels is often no more than a quiet backwater in America’s electoral process. In recent years, only a few such incumbents have lost their bids for renomination, and only a handful more have had to break a sweat.
No sitting senator or governor [...]
February 4th, 2010
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With the primaries in Illinois this past Tuesday, the first ballots have now been cast in the 2010 elections. Naturally, most attention by national pundits has been lavished on the Senate and House contests, since members of Congress—wherever they are elected—have an impact on all of us. Governors affect only their own states in most [...]
November 12th, 2009
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No doubt off-year elections can be overanalyzed. They are few in number. They sometimes give evidence of conflicting trends. And their predictive value for the midterm elections to follow has been rather conclusively debunked (see Alan Abramowitz’s column here).
Still, in a decade where the partisan political pendulum has stayed close to even-steven [...]
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