Updated March 18, 2010
If the election were held today: + 7 Republican governorships
See our 2010 primary and filing deadline calendar here.
Only major candidates, as determined by the Crystal Ball, are listed below. Candidates are listed in order of their primary chances, with frontrunners at top. Probable candidates who have yet to announce are listed in italics and incumbents seeking reelection are listed in bold.
March 18th, 2010
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Back in 1980, the Washington Post’s David S. Broder wrote a notable book, The Changing of the Guard, about the generational turnover of national and state leadership occurring at that time. It’s happening all over again. We’ll see dozens of congressional seats switching hands and sides in November, but the greatest transformation will be [...]
March 4th, 2010
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The 2010 primary season is under way, which at the congressional and gubernatorial levels is often no more than a quiet backwater in America’s electoral process. In recent years, only a few such incumbents have lost their bids for renomination, and only a handful more have had to break a sweat.
No sitting senator or governor [...]
February 4th, 2010
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With the primaries in Illinois this past Tuesday, the first ballots have now been cast in the 2010 elections. Naturally, most attention by national pundits has been lavished on the Senate and House contests, since members of Congress—wherever they are elected—have an impact on all of us. Governors affect only their own states in most [...]
November 12th, 2009
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No doubt off-year elections can be overanalyzed. They are few in number. They sometimes give evidence of conflicting trends. And their predictive value for the midterm elections to follow has been rather conclusively debunked (see Alan Abramowitz’s column here).
Still, in a decade where the partisan political pendulum has stayed close to even-steven [...]
November 5th, 2009
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The following “fun facts” are presented as instant analysis of the November 3 election for the Crystal Ball’s readers, straight from the mouth of U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato, with the editorial assistance of Isaac Wood:
The Republicans learned they can win again (VA, NJ), but only if they can unify [...]
November 5th, 2009
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In American politics, what comes around usually goes around. But it doesn’t always go around this quickly. Just one year after their decisive victories in the 2008 presidential and congressional elections, Democrats appear to be in serious trouble. Some political commentators believe that Republican victories in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections reflect [...]
October 29th, 2009
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We’re heading ’round the final bend in this year’s Virginia contest for governor, so it’s time to take a look at our traditional gubernatorial “north stars.” These stars, fixed in the firmament and reliable indicators for decades, have long guided our prognostications.
Taking the measure of our ten north stars has proven predictive [...]
October 22nd, 2009
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COPYRIGHT 2009 BY SABATO’S CRYSTAL BALL, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Campaign ads provide a window into any election. Who are the candidates? What do they stand for? What issues are at stake in the race? Campaign ads help to define the candidates, set the agenda of the campaign, and provide the critical information–wrapped up [...]
October 15th, 2009
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Editor’s Note: Last week, Larry Sabato examined the 2009 and 2010 races for governor taking place in the Northeast and Midwest. This week, in part two of his analysis, he analyzes the Southern and Western races.
Counting New Jersey and Virginia in 2009, 39 of the 50 governorships will be decided in the [...]
October 8th, 2009
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Editor’s Note: This week, Larry Sabato examines the races for governor taking place in the Northeast and Midwest. Next week, in part two of his analysis, he will analyze the Southern and Western races. Enjoy!
With the off-year midterms just a year away, the Crystal Ball will focus on the statehouses. It gets [...]
October 8th, 2009
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There is no exact formula for projecting the number of voters that will turn out on any given Election Day. The intensity of the contest, the issues being discussed, and the hot-or-cold personalities of the candidates can spike turnout up or down.
But history can provide some clues. Voting is like inertia in [...]
October 8th, 2009
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DELAWARE- SENATE: Republicans got just the break they were hoping for in the Delaware Senate race. Republican Rep. Mike Castle will run, challenging the Vice President’s son, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden (D). Biden would have defeated any other Republican, but Castle is leading Biden in early polls. The Vice President has great sway, [...]
September 17th, 2009
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It was nearly twenty years ago. While assessing L. Douglas Wilder’s 1989 victory for governor of Virginia, I first noticed that for four consecutive elections (1977, 1981, 1985, and 1989), the Old Dominion had voted for the gubernatorial nominee of the party opposite to the one controlling the White House. It merited a paragraph, [...]
July 30th, 2009
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In the mid-nineteenth century, a delegate to a Virginia constitutional convention argued against the office of lieutenant governor, calling it, “the fifth wheel of a wagon, and much more useless.” Worse has been said about the vice presidency over the centuries. Franklin Roosevelt’s first VP, John Nance Garner, declared his position was not worth [...]
July 23rd, 2009
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It is often said that the past is prologue. In that regard, this year’s gubernatorial candidates in Virginia–Democrat Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell–share a bit of common history. They ran against each other for state attorney general in 2005, a race that ended as one of the closest statewide elections in Virginia history. [...]
Copyright (c) 2010 Larry Sabato and the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball. All rights reserved.
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