Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2008 Senate’ Category

The Crystal Ball Scores Near Perfect Record for Accuracy in Predicting 2008 Election Outcomes

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball is proud to announce that, with only a handful of official election outcomes still pending, we recorded a nearly perfect record of accuracy in predicting the results of the 2008 Election, including the correct October prediction of the final Electoral College total of 364 Obama, 174 McCain. The 2008 predictions of the […]

The Last Last Word

The Crystal Ball's Final Projections for the 2008 Election

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: If Barack Obama wins the popular vote by 7 or 8 percentage points, then he will also carry at least a couple of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota. If Barack Obama should end up by 3 or 4 percent of the popular vote, then it is possible that […]

The Last Word–almost

The Crystal Ball's Next-to-Last Projections for the 2008 Election

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

These are our 2008 election projections as of Thursday, October 30. We will make final adjustments and tweaks on Monday afternoon, November 3, and post them to the website. At that point, we will attempt to call the few remaining toss-ups. We wish everyone the best possible Election Day, with congratulations to the winners and […]

U.s. Senate Update

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s ratings for the 25 U.S. Senate contests have held up nicely since we last published them on October 2. However, as is normal in any election campaign, late developments have changed the ratings in a couple of contests. In both cases, it is more bad news for Republicans. GEORGIA: Here is a […]

Senate Sensibilities – The Update

The '08 battles for the U.S. Senate

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Lots of exciting changes have occurred in the nation’s Senate races since we last reviewed them in December 2007. Yet overall, the outlook hasn’t changed much. Democrats will pick up seats to pad their slim 51-to-49 margin. They are defending a mere 12 seats, and all their incumbents are running again. The Republicans have drawn […]

Senate Sensibilities

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Look at recent history. The Senate has changed party control six times: in 1980 (D to R), 1986 (R to D), 1994 (D to R), 2001 (R to D), 2002 (D to R), and 2006 (R to D). This is no longer a rare event. And the Democrats now control the Senate by the slimmest […]

Senate ’08 Update

Will Dems hold on to the slimmest of margins?

, U.Va. Center for Politics

As of yesterday, there were exactly 475 days left until Election Day 2008. Since the Crystal Ball‘s last Senate update, filed exactly 600 days before the election, there have been a number of interesting developments that merit mention. To begin with, there will now be a total of 34 seats on the ballot, instead of […]

Senate Races ’08

Down to the Wire Again?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Three of the last four election years have produced squeaker results in the Senate contests. In 2000 the parties emerged from November in a 50-50 tie, broken by new Vice President Cheney in the GOP’s favor in 2001. Just five months later, the Republican-to-Independent/Democratic switch of Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont gave the Senate to […]