Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2008 House’ Category

Not Your Father’s Democratic Congress

, Senior Columnist

The last two Democratic presidents have a lot in common. Like Bill Clinton before him, Barack Obama is a gifted 40-something politician, a strong orator with a high likeability quotient, and a successful candidate who captured the White House by running on a platform offering big change. And like Clinton, Obama begins his administration blessed […]

The Crystal Ball Scores Near Perfect Record for Accuracy in Predicting 2008 Election Outcomes

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball is proud to announce that, with only a handful of official election outcomes still pending, we recorded a nearly perfect record of accuracy in predicting the results of the 2008 Election, including the correct October prediction of the final Electoral College total of 364 Obama, 174 McCain. The 2008 predictions of the […]

The Last Last Word

The Crystal Ball's Final Projections for the 2008 Election

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: If Barack Obama wins the popular vote by 7 or 8 percentage points, then he will also carry at least a couple of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota. If Barack Obama should end up by 3 or 4 percent of the popular vote, then it is possible that […]

The Last Word–almost

The Crystal Ball's Next-to-Last Projections for the 2008 Election

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

These are our 2008 election projections as of Thursday, October 30. We will make final adjustments and tweaks on Monday afternoon, November 3, and post them to the website. At that point, we will attempt to call the few remaining toss-ups. We wish everyone the best possible Election Day, with congratulations to the winners and […]

House Race Update

Democratic Domination Continues

, Crystal Ball, U.Va. Center for Politics

Every week it seems to get worse for House Republicans. As we will demonstrate below, we have expanded the number of possible to likely net gains for Democrats from our previous 15 to 20 to a new and rather astounding 22 to 27 seats. The past week has been a wild one for congressional races […]

Democrats Roll in U.s. House Races

Party Now Certain to Add Significant Number to Current Majority

, Crystal Ball, U.Va. Center for Politics

The good news just keeps on coming for Democrats. As we discussed last week, presidential nominee Barack Obama is the clear favorite to win a substantial victory in the race for the White House (see updated Electoral College map, HERE). Democratic Senate candidates are doing so well that the party will add at least six […]

Congressional Combat, Continued

2008 contests for the U.S. House - June update

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Last December, when we first sketched out the upcoming House elections, we suggested that Democrats were likely to have a good year. Nothing has changed our forecast in the six months since, and if anything, we now see November 2008 as probably the best year Democrats have had in many a moon. Only a solid […]

Congressional Combat

Contests for the U.S. House 2008

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Truly important election years for the U.S. House of Representatives come around only every so often-years when party control is at stake and the House actually changes hands or the balance of power is significantly altered one way or the other. Since 1970 we have had five of those years: 1974 – The year of […]

The Scandal-Tinged Six:

Whose campaigns are dead on arrival and who will survive to run again?

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Last week the Crystal Ball examined fifteen freshman Representatives (fourteen Democrats and one Republican) who we consider to be endangered in November 2008. As promised, now we turn to part two of our list of the imperiled: the “Scandal-tinged Six.” Here, the partisan tables are turned, as five Republicans and one Democrat are in danger […]

The Freshman Fifteen

Which House Members Will Carry their Weight in '08?

, U.Va. Center for Politics

This month, the Crystal Ball has compiled an endangered species list of sorts: members of the House of Representatives who have their work cut out for them if they seek political survival beyond 2008. At this point, we can sort the vulnerable into two stacks: the “Freshman Fifteen” and the “Scandalous Six.” We’ll keep you […]

Of Ashes and Sashes

Vacancy Signs Point to a Very "Special" Summer

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Just as Ben Franklin assured us of two certainties in life, let the Crystal Ball assure you of two certainties in congressional special elections this year: deaths and taxpayer-funded University posts will be the cause (granted, you won’t hear us complaining too much about the latter). We’ll explain in a minute. At the moment, to […]

Electoral Trends Warm Sunbelt, Freeze Frostbelt

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Ah, fun with numbers. There’s nothing like it in the field of politics. Usually, we manipulate the numbers of public opinion polls, but this week we’ll crunch some population data instead. Last week the Crystal Ball’s David Wasserman went further than anyone has in projecting out the states’ estimated gains and losses in the U.S. […]

When the Levee Breaks

Looking at the Big Picture in the House

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Because one Crystal Ball analysis piece (We Were Merely Freshmen?) laced with references to popular music deserves another, we decided to take our readers back in time this week and tip our hat to an old blues song Led Zeppelin revived in 1971. The first lines should be familiar to many a Robert Plant die-hard […]

We Were Merely Freshmen?

GOP Hunts the House for One-Term Wonders in 2008

, U.Va. Center for Politics

As the Crystal Ball gazes into the future of Congress’s lower chamber beyond 2008, what should it consider? Should we read anything into the moderate success of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s early leadership? No, the elections are too far away for it to really matter. Forgive us as we turn our attention to popular music for […]