Sabato's Crystal Ball

Virginia Gubernatorial Rematch

Will 2009 reflect past trends or overturn them?

June 25th, 2009

Dale Eisman, Guest Columnist

Barack Obama owes his presidency in part to his campaign’s mastery of the internet. A corps of online Obama enthusiasts helped him identify and mobilize previously-hidden groups of voters–particularly those under 30–and build an historic fundraising apparatus. In much of the country, Republicans were left with a clear majority only among older and rural [...]

Corruption Most Foul

Revisiting the Timeless Principles of Corruption in Politics

December 11th, 2008

U.Va. Center for Politics

After reading the federal criminal complaint filed against the Illinois governor this past Tuesday we at The Crystal Ball could think only one thing: Willie Stark, meet Rod Blagojevich. Of course the governor is innocent until proven guilty, but the indictment is thick, well sourced, and very, very specific. Of Illinois’ immediate past eight [...]

Statehouse ‘08 Update

October 9th, 2008

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

There are just eleven governorships up for grabs from coast to coast, six currently held the Democrats and five by the Republicans:

State
Incumbent
Last Election Percentage
Candidacy Status
Dem. Nominee
GOP Nominee

Delaware
Ruth Minner
51
Term limited
Jack Markell
Bill Lee

Indiana
Mitch Daniels
53
Running
Jill Long Thompson
Mitch Daniels

Missouri
Matt Blunt
51
Not running
Jay Nixon
Kenny Hulshof

Montana
Brian Schweitzer
50
Running
Brian Schweitzer
Roy Brown

New Hampshire
John Lynch
74
Running
John Lynch
Joe Kenney

North Carolina
Mike Easley
56
Term limited
Beverly Perdue
Pat McCrory

North Dakota
John Hoeven
71
Running
Tim [...]

The Other “House” Elections: Statehouses ‘08

August 7th, 2008

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Leave the presidential contest aside for the moment. At other levels of politics, the Republicans may eventually file the 2008 campaign under the Double Jeopardy category of “It Just Keeps Getting Worse”. Surely, GOP House strategists are asking themselves whether they are cursed this year.
Just take a look at New York’s 13th [...]

Statehouse Sizzle

The Campaigns for Governor in '07 and '08

February 22nd, 2007

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Governors do while Senators talk–and we’re not just referring to Joe Biden. The talking takes place in Washington, the most over-covered capital city in the world. The doing occurs in the fifty states, scattered across a continental country and often ignored by the D.C.-centric national press. That’s one reason why the Crystal Ball has [...]