Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2008 Governor’ Category

Virginia Gubernatorial Rematch

Will 2009 reflect past trends or overturn them?

, Guest Columnist

Barack Obama owes his presidency in part to his campaign’s mastery of the internet. A corps of online Obama enthusiasts helped him identify and mobilize previously-hidden groups of voters–particularly those under 30–and build an historic fundraising apparatus. In much of the country, Republicans were left with a clear majority only among older and rural voters, […]

Corruption Most Foul

Revisiting the Timeless Principles of Corruption in Politics

After reading the federal criminal complaint filed against the Illinois governor this past Tuesday we at The Crystal Ball could think only one thing: Willie Stark, meet Rod Blagojevich. Of course the governor is innocent until proven guilty, but the indictment is thick, well sourced, and very, very specific. Of Illinois’ immediate past eight governors, […]

The Crystal Ball Scores Near Perfect Record for Accuracy in Predicting 2008 Election Outcomes

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball is proud to announce that, with only a handful of official election outcomes still pending, we recorded a nearly perfect record of accuracy in predicting the results of the 2008 Election, including the correct October prediction of the final Electoral College total of 364 Obama, 174 McCain. The 2008 predictions of the […]

The Last Last Word

The Crystal Ball's Final Projections for the 2008 Election

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: If Barack Obama wins the popular vote by 7 or 8 percentage points, then he will also carry at least a couple of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota. If Barack Obama should end up by 3 or 4 percent of the popular vote, then it is possible that […]

The Last Word–almost

The Crystal Ball's Next-to-Last Projections for the 2008 Election

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

These are our 2008 election projections as of Thursday, October 30. We will make final adjustments and tweaks on Monday afternoon, November 3, and post them to the website. At that point, we will attempt to call the few remaining toss-ups. We wish everyone the best possible Election Day, with congratulations to the winners and […]

Statehouse ’08 Update

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

There are just eleven governorships up for grabs from coast to coast, six currently held the Democrats and five by the Republicans: State Incumbent Last Election Percentage Candidacy Status Dem. Nominee GOP Nominee Delaware Ruth Minner 51 Term limited Jack Markell Bill Lee Indiana Mitch Daniels 53 Running Jill Long Thompson Mitch Daniels Missouri Matt […]

The Other “House” Elections: Statehouses ’08

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Leave the presidential contest aside for the moment. At other levels of politics, the Republicans may eventually file the 2008 campaign under the Double Jeopardy category of “It Just Keeps Getting Worse”. Surely, GOP House strategists are asking themselves whether they are cursed this year. Just take a look at New York’s 13th district, which […]

Statehouse Sizzle

The Campaigns for Governor in '07 and '08

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Governors do while Senators talk–and we’re not just referring to Joe Biden. The talking takes place in Washington, the most over-covered capital city in the world. The doing occurs in the fifty states, scattered across a continental country and often ignored by the D.C.-centric national press. That’s one reason why the Crystal Ball has always […]