On paper, Republicans would seem to have an edge going into the Senate races of 2006. With several more seats than the GOP to defend, the Democrats’ prospects for retaking control of the upper legislative house are somewhat less bright than their chances of taking control of the House of Representative. However, as we have discussed on this site many times, 2006 could turn into a devastating “sixth-year itch” for the Bush White House.
The Republicans are defending 15 seats and Democrats have 18, counting the Senate seat of the lone Independent-Democrat, Jim Jeffords. A handful of incumbents have decided to retire. The number of open seats is five, with Bill Frist (R-TN) calling it quits on the GOP side. Along with Jeffords, Paul Sarbanes (D-MD) and Mark Dayton (D-MN) are hanging it up on the on the Democratic side. In addition, with Jon Corzine’s (D-NJ) election to the New Jersey governorship, Bob Menendez (D) is his newly appointed replacement, and he is running for a full term, never having been elected to the seat. All of these seats are somewhat less secure than they would be with an incumbent running, although at least one incumbent (Dayton) was considered very weak.
As the summer drew to a close, it looke dlike Democrats would pick up at least two or three seats, net. Of course, they are hoping for a big wave, which would enable them to win the six net seats they need to take control. A wave is only visible at the end of October or the beginning of November, and at this point it looks like Democrats are poised to gain four to six seats with Election Day just around the corner. (Read more in recent Crystal Ball email updates)
Click on each state in the above map for detailed analysis of each race, or select the View All Races option. The chart below lists this year’s Senate races by their current outlook.
2006 Senate Outlook Summary Chart
Each race is categorized by its current Crystal Ball Outlook, with a colored arrow denoting noticeable momentum in one direction or the other. Red arrows (
) indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows (
) signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.
| IN | AZ | VA | MT | OH | PA | ||
| ME | TN (OPEN) |
MO | RI | ||||
| MS |  |
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| TX |
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| UT |
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| WY |
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WV | ||||||
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WI | ||||||
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NY | ||||||
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NM | ||||||
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ND | ||||||
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MA | ||||||
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HI | ||||||
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FL | ||||||
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WA | DE | |||||
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NE | CT | |||||
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MN | VT | |||||
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NJ | MD | MI | CA | |||
January 1st, 2008
,
With Election Day fast approaching, things are shaking out in terms of race outlooks. The following charts summarize the Crystal Ball’s current breakdown of the 2006 contests for Senate, House and Governor. Seats currently held by Republicans are printed in red text, and seats currently held by Democrats are printed in blue; party totals [...]
October 26th, 2006
,
A Glance Inside the Senate Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held)
Solid R (7)
Likely R (1)
Leans R (1)
Toss-up (3)
Leans D (3)
Likely D (0)
Solid D (0)
IN (Lugar)
AZ (Kyl)
VA (Allen)
MO (Talent)
MT (Burns)
ME (Snowe)
RI (Chafee)
OH (DeWine)
MS (Lott)
TN (OPEN)
PA (Santorum)
NV (Ensign)
TX (Hutchison)
UT [...]
October 12th, 2006
,
A Glance Inside the Senate Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held)
Solid R (7)
Likely R (1)
Leans R (1)
Toss-up (4)
Leans D (2)
Likely D (0)
Solid D (0)
IN (Lugar)
AZ (Kyl)
VA (Allen)
MO (Talent)
MT (Burns)
ME (Snowe)
OH (DeWine)
PA (Santorum)
MS (Lott)
RI (Chafee)
NV (Ensign)
TN (OPEN)
TX (Hutchison)
UT [...]
September 6th, 2006
,
A Glance Inside the Senate Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held)
Solid R (7)
Likely R (1)
Leans R (2)
Toss-up (3)
Leans D (2)
Likely D (0)
Solid D (0)
IN (Lugar)
AZ (Kyl)
TN (OPEN)
MO (Talent)
MT (Burns)
ME (Snowe)
VA (Allen)
OH (DeWine)
PA (Santorum)
MS (Lott)
RI (Chafee)
NV (Ensign)
TX (Hutchison)
UT [...]
August 10th, 2006
,
Coverage and analysis of the Lieberman-Lamont primary results has likely consumed an entire national forest today, or at least a forest’s worth of giga-bytes on the internet. But before the Crystal Ball turns its attention northward, we present a brief glimpse of the current midterm picture.
The Election as it Looks on August [...]
August 3rd, 2006
,
What’s currently happening in the Democratic Party of Connecticut is either an ugly purge or a refreshing demonstration of grassroots democracy. Which side you take in this intra-party war reveals a lot about you.
By now, virtually everyone knows that three-term U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman is in the fight of his political life [...]
March 30th, 2006
,
Just over the last few weeks, there has been a fair amount of change in both the Senate and Governor contests up this fall. The primary season generates new candidates, retirements and scandals.
Overall, the midterm picture continues to have a Democratic coloration. President Bush’s ratings remain at all-time lows, averaging in the [...]
January 26th, 2006
,
If the Democrats want to win the Senate, they need a big wave–the kind of tsunami they got in 1974 and 1986, or that the Republicans received in 1980 and 1994. Rough surf won’t do the trick, and at least at the start of 2006, November looks to be full of white caps but [...]
September 22nd, 2005
,
It is time for our first fall update of the 2006 Senate and Governor contests. To the layperson, they are an eternity and fourteen months away. To political junkies, the races are already in full swing, with recruiting season approaching its end in most places and fundraising machines humming everywhere.
Enter the Senate (33 [...]
July 14th, 2005
,
Everyone is focused on the Supreme Court now, with good reason, but just below the surface the campaigns of 2006 are heating up. Perhaps 16 of the 33 U.S. Senate contests and 19 of the 36 Governor’s races may be competitive and interesting. Therefore, about half of the big dogs on the ballot are [...]
April 5th, 2005
,
Every election year is different, and the results of midterm elections have varied dramatically. Still, can recent history suggest anything about the 2006 Senate results? At the very least, our modern electoral experience can set goals for Democrats and Republicans alike. Let’s look at the last half-century of midterm elections for the U.S. Senate from [...]
March 31st, 2005
,
All Crystal Ball junkies know the drill. Every election year, most Senators skate by, especially the venerable elders who well fit their states. Meanwhile, a handful of Senators are vulnerable, and those are the contests we watch like hawks. In last week’s Crystal Ball email ( http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/LJS2005032401), we examined seniority and the 109th Senate, [...]
March 24th, 2005
,
Recently, Congressional Quarterly reported a startling statistic that received little attention, but should have been the source of extensive commentary for what it told us about the contemporary institution of the United States Senate. The current 109th Congress has achieved a remarkable milestone: It has the oldest Senate ever! The average senator serving today is [...]
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