Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2006 Senate’ Category

Crystal Ball Senate Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the Senate Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held) Solid R (7) Likely R (1) Leans R (1) Toss-up (3) Leans D (3) Likely D (0) Solid D (0) IN (Lugar) AZ (Kyl) VA (Allen) MO (Talent) MT (Burns) ME (Snowe) RI (Chafee) OH […]

The Brutal Bottom Line

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

With Election Day fast approaching, things are shaking out in terms of race outlooks. The following charts summarize the Crystal Ball’s current breakdown of the 2006 contests for Senate, House and Governor. Seats currently held by Republicans are printed in red text, and seats currently held by Democrats are printed in blue; party totals appear […]

Crystal Ball Senate Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the Senate Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held) Solid R (7) Likely R (1) Leans R (1) Toss-up (4) Leans D (2) Likely D (0) Solid D (0) IN (Lugar) AZ (Kyl) VA (Allen) MO (Talent) MT (Burns) ME (Snowe) OH (DeWine) PA […]

Crystal Ball Senate Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the Senate Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 15 (out of 55 held) Solid R (7) Likely R (1) Leans R (2) Toss-up (3) Leans D (2) Likely D (0) Solid D (0) IN (Lugar) AZ (Kyl) TN (OPEN) MO (Talent) MT (Burns) ME (Snowe) VA (Allen) OH […]

Ned Nabs Nod in Nutmeg Powder Keg

PLUS: Where all the races stand approaching campaign season's final leg

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Coverage and analysis of the Lieberman-Lamont primary results has likely consumed an entire national forest today, or at least a forest’s worth of giga-bytes on the internet. But before the Crystal Ball turns its attention northward, we present a brief glimpse of the current midterm picture. The Election as it Looks on August 10 Last […]

The Connecticut Senate Spectacle

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

What’s currently happening in the Democratic Party of Connecticut is either an ugly purge or a refreshing demonstration of grassroots democracy. Which side you take in this intra-party war reveals a lot about you. By now, virtually everyone knows that three-term U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman is in the fight of his political life with multimillionaire […]

Senate and Governor 2006 – The Constant Is Change

Democrats continue to do well, but censure/impeachment issue could backfire

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Just over the last few weeks, there has been a fair amount of change in both the Senate and Governor contests up this fall. The primary season generates new candidates, retirements and scandals. Overall, the midterm picture continues to have a Democratic coloration. President Bush’s ratings remain at all-time lows, averaging in the mid-to-upper 30s, […]

2006 Senate Leans Democratic

But Not Enough for the Big Win Yet

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

If the Democrats want to win the Senate, they need a big wave–the kind of tsunami they got in 1974 and 1986, or that the Republicans received in 1980 and 1994. Rough surf won’t do the trick, and at least at the start of 2006, November looks to be full of white caps but no […]

Protect Ya Neck: The 2006 Races for Senate and Governor

Vulnerable Incumbents and Open Seats Provide Action

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

It is time for our first fall update of the 2006 Senate and Governor contests. To the layperson, they are an eternity and fourteen months away. To political junkies, the races are already in full swing, with recruiting season approaching its end in most places and fundraising machines humming everywhere. Enter the Senate (33 Chambers) […]

The Big Picture for 2006

More Real Competition (Potentially) for Senate and Governor

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Everyone is focused on the Supreme Court now, with good reason, but just below the surface the campaigns of 2006 are heating up. Perhaps 16 of the 33 U.S. Senate contests and 19 of the 36 Governor’s races may be competitive and interesting. Therefore, about half of the big dogs on the ballot are worth […]

Senate 2006: Scratching Beneath the Surface of the Sixth-Year Itch

Modern history favors the out-of-power Democrats, but recent memory suggests the GOP can beat the electoral traditions

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Every election year is different, and the results of midterm elections have varied dramatically. Still, can recent history suggest anything about the 2006 Senate results? At the very least, our modern electoral experience can set goals for Democrats and Republicans alike. Let’s look at the last half-century of midterm elections for the U.S. Senate from […]

Senate 2006: From Venerable to Vulnerable

The 14 seats most likely to change hands in 2006

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

All Crystal Ball junkies know the drill. Every election year, most Senators skate by, especially the venerable elders who well fit their states. Meanwhile, a handful of Senators are vulnerable, and those are the contests we watch like hawks. In last week’s Crystal Ball email ( http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/LJS2005032401), we examined seniority and the 109th Senate, as […]

Senate 2006: Status Quo Central?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Recently, Congressional Quarterly reported a startling statistic that received little attention, but should have been the source of extensive commentary for what it told us about the contemporary institution of the United States Senate. The current 109th Congress has achieved a remarkable milestone: It has the oldest Senate ever! The average senator serving today is […]