FALL HOUSE OUTLOOK FOR 2006: Can Republicans Scratch the Sixth Year Itch?
(Last year, we asked whether Democrats could even hope for a so-called “sixth year itch.” Now, we ask whether Republicans can hope to scratch it.)
Current breakdown: 232 Republicans, 201 Democrats, 1 Independent, 1 vacancy
Current Highly Competitive Races Make-up: 56 held by Republicans, 4 held by Democrats
Current Highly Competitive Races Outlook: 25 Toss-ups, 22 Lean Republican, 13 Lean Democratic
The last several cycles of congressional election action have left pundits scratching their heads thinking about just how entrenched the House Republican majority has become since 1994. Thanks largely to redistricting in recent years, Democratic efforts to “expand the playing field” of competitive House races so as to make contestable the GOP’s relatively slim margin (within the broader historical context) have gone down in flames. But now that President Bush’s approval rating is at an all time low and the stars seem to be aligned for Democrats, is it a whole new ballgame? Is it remotely possible that there could exist a “House of Blues” after the 2006 midterm?
The Crystal Ball says…YES. As we saw in angrily anti-GOP Ohio on August 2nd, 2005, in a special election, even some of the most Republican districts in the country are not entirely impervious to strong voter revolts. National Democratic strategists are hyping 2006 as the reverse version of 1994, the year a national partisan tidal wave toppled Democrats from power. But while Democrats’ current deficit of 15 seats pales in comparison to the 52 seats gained by Republican insurgents nearly twelve years ago, Democrats may actually have just as steep a mountain to climb now as the GOP had then.
The bottom line? It’s clear that Democrats are poised to add substantially to their numbers in the House in November. Democrats are being aided by a string of candidate recruitment coups and continually sagging approval ratings of President Bush and the GOP Congress. At this writing, the Crystal Ball still believes the GOP could face very serious repercussions this year, even in a handful of districts that have not experienced recent competition. For members of the congressional minority, a gain of between 24 and 30 seats is currently the most likely scenario, enough to taste the success that has eluded them for several consecutive cycles.
Click on each yellow-shaded state in the above map to view its active races, or select the View All Races option. The chart below lists this year’s “in play” House races by their current outlook.
Each race is categorized by its current Crystal Ball Outlook, with a colored arrow denoting noticeable momentum in one direction or the other. Red arrows (
) indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows (
) signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.
January 1st, 2008
,
With Election Day fast approaching, things are shaking out in terms of race outlooks. The following charts summarize the Crystal Ball’s current breakdown of the 2006 contests for Senate, House and Governor. Seats currently held by Republicans are printed in red text, and seats currently held by Democrats are printed in blue; party totals [...]
October 26th, 2006
,
A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats in Play: 63 (169 Safe/Solid R)
Likely R (17)
Leans R (18)
Toss-up (16)
Leans D (12)
Likely D (0)
CA-04 (Doolittle)
AZ-01 (Renzi)
CT-02 (Simmons)
AZ-08 (OPEN)
CA-50 (Bilbray)
AZ-05 (Hayworth)
CT-04 (Shays)
CO-07 (OPEN)
CO-05 (OPEN)
CA-11 (Pombo)
FL-13 (OPEN)
FL-16 (OPEN)
FL-08 (Keller)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
FL-22 (Shaw)
IN-02 (Chocola)
FL-09 (OPEN)
CT-05 (Johnson)
IL-06 (OPEN)
IN-08 (Hostettler)
IL-10 (Kirk)
ID-01 (OPEN)
IN-09 (Sodrel)
IA-01 [...]
October 12th, 2006
,
A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats in Play: 62 (170 Safe/Solid R)
Likely R (20)
Leans R (15)
Toss-up (16)
Leans D (11)
Likely D (0)
AZ-01 (Renzi)
AZ-05 (Hayworth)
CT-02 (Simmons)
AZ-08 (OPEN)
CA-04 (Doolittle)
CA-11 (Pombo)
CT-04 (Shays)
CO-07 (OPEN)
CA-50 (Bilbray)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
FL-13 (OPEN)
FL-16 (OPEN)
CO-05 (OPEN)
CT-05 (Johnson)
FL-22 (Shaw)
IN-02 (Chocola)
FL-08 (Keller)
KY-03 (Northup)
IL-06 (OPEN)
IN-08 (Hostettler)
FL-09 (OPEN)
NV-02 (OPEN)
IN-09 (Sodrel)
IA-01 [...]
September 6th, 2006
,
A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats in Play: 56 (176 Safe/Solid R)
Likely R (24)
Leans R (10)
Toss-up (18)
Leans D (4)
Likely D (0)
AZ-01 (Renzi)
AZ-05 (Hayworth)
AZ-08 (Kolbe)
CO-07 (OPEN)
CA-11 (Pombo)
CT-05 (Johnson)
CT-02 (Simmons)
IA-01 (OPEN)
CA-50 (Bilbray)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
CT-04 (Shays)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
FL-09 (OPEN)
NY-20 (Sweeney)
FL-22 (Shaw)
TX-22 (OPEN)
FL-13 (OPEN)
OH-01 (Chabot)
IL-06 (OPEN)
FL-16 (Foley)
OH-15 (Pryce)
IN-02 (Chocola)
ID-01 (OPEN)
PA-08 [...]
August 30th, 2006
,
A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats in Play: 62
Safe R
Likey R (22)
Leans R (23)
Toss-up (15)
Leans D (2)
Likely D (0)
Safe D
180 seats
AZ-01 (Renzi)
WY-AL (Cubin)
AZ-08 (OPEN)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
CA-04 (Doolittle)
WY-AL (Cubin)
AZ-08 (OPEN)
TX-22 (OPEN)
TX-17 (Edwards)
IL-17 (OPEN)
IL-08 (Bean)
AZ-08 (OPEN)
TX-22 (OPEN)
180 seats
Safe R
Likey R (0)
Leans R (0) [...]
August 24th, 2006
,
With less than two weeks to go before the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the fall election season, there’s never been a better time to take stock of the races that will determine partisan control of Congress beyond 2006. In some races, the same elements have been at play for many months and little [...]
July 13th, 2006
,
Yes, we know college basketball is a distant memory by now from the perspective of these hot summer months, but looking at the list of potentially competitive races beyond those listed in our Dirty Thirty, we can’t help but be reminded of the perennial spectacle of bracket selection. Much as slightly above-average college basketball [...]
June 29th, 2006
,
Just how perilously close are Republicans to losing their congressional majority in 2006? The way several independent observers and Democrats are talking and acting these days, you might guess the GOP’s demise was all but a done deal.
Only last month, veteran bipartisan polling team Thom Riehle and Lance Tarrance concluded that [...]
March 16th, 2006
,
We all live in the moment, and we often mistakenly believe that what is true today was true always. Not so in politics, and especially in Congressional elections.
Turnover in the modern U.S. House of Representatives is minimal. Redistricting and the advantages of incumbency help to insure it. Take a look at the [...]
February 17th, 2006
,
With upside-down congressional approval ratings showing few signs of rising from the depths anytime soon, 2006 promises to be one of the more volatile (and dare we say, anti-incumbent?) House election cycles in recent memory. So looking ahead to November, how best might Democrats and Republicans prepare to face this specter? For starters, we [...]
February 9th, 2006
,
Fresh off the Superbowl, Americans are once again reminded that every once in a while, an underdog team can come back up from the depths, run the table, and pull off a remarkable victory. This year, congressional Democrats, ever-so-desperate to pick up the 15 seats they need to reclaim the lower chamber this year, [...]
October 12th, 2005
,
In May, the Crystal Ball argued that the 2006 midterm elections would present a whole new opportunity for Democrats to nationalize the ethics charges mounting against Rep. Tom DeLay and to use “the Hammer” as a tool of their own for chipping away at the GOP majority. In light of this month’s news, this [...]
June 2nd, 2005
,
Between 1934 and 1994, the party in charge of the presidency lost House seats in midterm congressional elections without fail. And for years, political scientists have elaborately laid out logical reasons for this to be the case: some have theorized that midterms serve as natural electoral “reflexes” to counterbalance strong party showings in presidential [...]
May 26th, 2005
,
(Editor’s note: Sabato’s Crystal Ball is delighted to present Professor Alan Abramowitz’s original work in this week’s Crystal Ball Email Update, for the enjoyment and enlightenment of our faithful readers. Dr. Abramowitz is one of the most distinguished political scientists in the nation. A Stanford PhD and the Alben W. Barkley Chair-holder at Emory [...]
May 19th, 2005
,
At this point in a midterm cycle, the Crystal Ball would normally lead off its analysis of the House landscape with a discussion about prospects for six year itches, open seats and early money. But alas, we’ve come to accept that nothing’s quite normal in Washington these days–and the fixation of the city’s media [...]
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