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Archive for the ‘2006 House’ Category

Crystal Ball House Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats in Play: 63 (169 Safe/Solid R) Likely R (17) Leans R (18) Toss-up (16) Leans D (12) Likely D (0) CA-04 (Doolittle) AZ-01 (Renzi) CT-02 (Simmons) AZ-08 (OPEN) CA-50 (Bilbray) AZ-05 (Hayworth) CT-04 (Shays) CO-07 (OPEN) CO-05 (OPEN) CA-11 (Pombo) FL-13 (OPEN) FL-16 (OPEN) FL-08 […]

The Brutal Bottom Line

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

With Election Day fast approaching, things are shaking out in terms of race outlooks. The following charts summarize the Crystal Ball’s current breakdown of the 2006 contests for Senate, House and Governor. Seats currently held by Republicans are printed in red text, and seats currently held by Democrats are printed in blue; party totals appear […]

Crystal Ball House Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats in Play: 62 (170 Safe/Solid R) Likely R (20) Leans R (15) Toss-up (16) Leans D (11) Likely D (0) AZ-01 (Renzi) AZ-05 (Hayworth) CT-02 (Simmons) AZ-08 (OPEN) CA-04 (Doolittle) CA-11 (Pombo) CT-04 (Shays) CO-07 (OPEN) CA-50 (Bilbray) CO-04 (Musgrave) FL-13 (OPEN) FL-16 (OPEN) CO-05 […]

Crystal Ball House Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats in Play: 56 (176 Safe/Solid R) Likely R (24) Leans R (10) Toss-up (18) Leans D (4) Likely D (0) AZ-01 (Renzi) AZ-05 (Hayworth) AZ-08 (Kolbe) CO-07 (OPEN) CA-11 (Pombo) CT-05 (Johnson) CT-02 (Simmons) IA-01 (OPEN) CA-50 (Bilbray) CO-04 (Musgrave) CT-04 (Shays) PA-06 (Gerlach) FL-09 […]

Crystal Ball House Outlook

This is a test, this is only a test

, U.Va. Center for Politics

A Glance Inside the House Crystal Ball Republican Held Seats in Play: 62 Safe R Likey R (22) Leans R (23) Toss-up (15) Leans D (2) Likely D (0) Safe D 180 seats AZ-01 (Renzi) WY-AL (Cubin) AZ-08 (OPEN) PA-06 (Gerlach) CA-04 (Doolittle) WY-AL (Cubin) AZ-08 (OPEN) TX-22 (OPEN) TX-17 (Edwards) IL-17 (OPEN) IL-08 (Bean) […]

Remember the Alamo

170 years later, could it be the GOP's last stand in 2006?

, U.Va. Center for Politics

With less than two weeks to go before the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the fall election season, there’s never been a better time to take stock of the races that will determine partisan control of Congress beyond 2006. In some races, the same elements have been at play for many months and little has […]

Mid-Summer Midterm Madness

A fresh look at 2006's House 'bubble battles'

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Yes, we know college basketball is a distant memory by now from the perspective of these hot summer months, but looking at the list of potentially competitive races beyond those listed in our Dirty Thirty, we can’t help but be reminded of the perennial spectacle of bracket selection. Much as slightly above-average college basketball squads […]

Micro-Wave or Macro-Wave?

The Four T's of the 2006 battle for the House

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Just how perilously close are Republicans to losing their congressional majority in 2006? The way several independent observers and Democrats are talking and acting these days, you might guess the GOP’s demise was all but a done deal. Only last month, veteran bipartisan polling team Thom Riehle and Lance Tarrance concluded that Republicans were “on […]

Congressional Competition: Gone With the Wind

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

We all live in the moment, and we often mistakenly believe that what is true today was true always. Not so in politics, and especially in Congressional elections. Turnover in the modern U.S. House of Representatives is minimal. Redistricting and the advantages of incumbency help to insure it. Take a look at the last couple […]

Better Watch a District!

Lest parties pay the price for snoozing in sleeper races come November

, U.Va. Center for Politics

With upside-down congressional approval ratings showing few signs of rising from the depths anytime soon, 2006 promises to be one of the more volatile (and dare we say, anti-incumbent?) House election cycles in recent memory. So looking ahead to November, how best might Democrats and Republicans prepare to face this specter? For starters, we suggest […]

The Congressional Shuffle

Dems are catching all the breaks, but can they take it to the House?

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Fresh off the Superbowl, Americans are once again reminded that every once in a while, an underdog team can come back up from the depths, run the table, and pull off a remarkable victory. This year, congressional Democrats, ever-so-desperate to pick up the 15 seats they need to reclaim the lower chamber this year, are […]

Hammer Time Over? A “House of Blues” After 2006?

Democrats Hope Presidential Disapproval, DeLay Charges Influence Midterms

, U.Va. Center for Politics

In May, the Crystal Ball argued that the 2006 midterm elections would present a whole new opportunity for Democrats to nationalize the ethics charges mounting against Rep. Tom DeLay and to use “the Hammer” as a tool of their own for chipping away at the GOP majority. In light of this month’s news, this has […]

They Just Don’t Make ‘Em Like They Used To

Today's Brand of House Elections and the 2006 Picture

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Between 1934 and 1994, the party in charge of the presidency lost House seats in midterm congressional elections without fail. And for years, political scientists have elaborately laid out logical reasons for this to be the case: some have theorized that midterms serve as natural electoral “reflexes” to counterbalance strong party showings in presidential cycles, […]

Don’t Blame Redistricting for Uncompetitive Elections

, Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science, Emory University

(Editor’s note: Sabato’s Crystal Ball is delighted to present Professor Alan Abramowitz‘s original work in this week’s Crystal Ball Email Update, for the enjoyment and enlightenment of our faithful readers. Dr. Abramowitz is one of the most distinguished political scientists in the nation. A Stanford PhD and the Alben W. Barkley Chair-holder at Emory University, […]

House 2006: Can Democrats “Hammer” The Gop Majority?

Plus a look at the Feisty Fifteen competitive House races

, U.Va. Center for Politics

At this point in a midterm cycle, the Crystal Ball would normally lead off its analysis of the House landscape with a discussion about prospects for six year itches, open seats and early money. But alas, we’ve come to accept that nothing’s quite normal in Washington these days–and the fixation of the city’s media and […]