The 2004 election season was a quiet one for most state governors; only 11 states had gubernatorial contests, and of those 11, a mere seven featured incumbents running on Election Day. Contrastingly, 2006 will see 36 statehouses up for grabs, with quite a few of those open seat races. Republicans currently hold a 28 to 22 advantage in governorships–the same edge they held going into 2004. This was the one area where Democrats didn’t lose ground nationally, and they will look to capitalize on this in 2006 (Read more in recent Crystal Ball email updates).
Five governors whose terms expire after 2006 are not eligible for reelection due to term limits, and all of them happen to be Republicans: Mike Huckabee (AR), Bill Owens (CO), Jeb Bush (FL), Kenny Guinn (NV), and Bob Taft (OH). Add Dirk Kempthorne (ID), Mitt Romney (MA) and George Pataki (NY), who are also not running for reelection, and that brings the total to 8. While a few of these states appear to be safe Republican territory for the moment, others will make for some heated contests. Other governors who will definitely not be running for reelection at this point include Tom Vilsack (D-IA), who may choose to pursue a presidential nomination in 2008, and Mike Johanns (R-NE) who has already left to become the new Secretary of Agriculture.
Click on each state in the above map for detailed analysis of each race, or select the View All Races option. The chart below lists this year’s gubernatorial races by their current outlook.
2006 Governor Outlook Summary Chart
Each race is categorized by its current Crystal Ball Outlook, with a colored arrow denoting noticeable momentum in one direction or the other. Red arrows (
) indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows (
) signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.
| CT (Rell) | AL (Riley) | AK (OPEN) | MN (Pawlenty) | MD (Ehrlich) | AR (OPEN) | NY (OPEN) |
|
| HI (Lingle) | CA (Schwarzenegger) | FL (OPEN) | ID (OPEN) |
CO (OPEN) | |
||
| NE (Heineman) | GA (Perdue) | NV (OPEN) | MA (OPEN) | |
|||
| SD (Rounds) | SC (Sanford) | RI (Carcieri) | OH (OPEN) | |
|||
| VT (Douglas) | |
||||||
| TX (Perry) | |
||||||
|
WY (Freudenthal) | ||||||
|
TN (Bredesen) | ||||||
|
WI (Doyle) | PA (Rendell) | |||||
|
MI (Granholm) | OK (Henry) | |||||
|
ME (Baldacci) | NM (Richardson) | |||||
|
IA (OPEN) | NH (Lynch) | |||||
|
OR (Kulongoski) | IL (Blagojevich) | KS (Sebelius) | AZ (Napolitano) | |||
January 1st, 2008
,
With Election Day fast approaching, things are shaking out in terms of race outlooks. The following charts summarize the Crystal Ball’s current breakdown of the 2006 contests for Senate, House and Governor. Seats currently held by Republicans are printed in red text, and seats currently held by Democrats are printed in blue; party totals [...]
October 26th, 2006
,
A Glance Inside the Governor Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held)
Solid R (6)
Likely R (5)
Leans R (4)
Toss-up (2)
Leans D (3)
Likely D (1)
Solid D (1)
CT (Rell)
AL (Riley)
AK (OPEN)
MD (Ehrlich)
AR (OPEN)
OH (OPEN)
NY (OPEN)
HI (Lingle)
CA (Schwarzenegger)
ID (OPEN)
MN (Pawlenty)
CO (OPEN)
NE (Heineman)
FL [...]
October 12th, 2006
,
A Glance Inside the Governor Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held)
Solid R (6)
Likely R (6)
Leans R (3)
Toss-up (2)
Leans D (3)
Likely D (1)
Solid D (1)
CT (Rell)
AL (Riley)
AK (OPEN)
MD (Ehrlich)
AR (OPEN)
OH (OPEN)
NY (OPEN)
HI (Lingle)
CA (Schwarzenegger)
NV (OPEN)
MN (Pawlenty)
CO (OPEN)
NE (Heineman)
FL [...]
September 6th, 2006
,
A Glance Inside the Governor Crystal Ball
Republican Held Seats up for Election in 2006: 22 (out of 28 held)
Solid R (5)
Likely R (5)
Leans R (6)
Toss-up (2)
Leans D (2)
Likely D (1)
Solid D (1)
CT (Rell)
AL (Riley)
AK (OPEN)
MA (OPEN)
CO (OPEN)
OH (OPEN)
NY (OPEN)
ID (OPEN)
GA (Perdue)
CA (Schwarzenegger)
MD (Ehrlich)
AR (OPEN)
NE (Heineman)
HI [...]
February 2nd, 2006
,
The Democrats may or may not score real breakthroughs in the houses of Congress in 2006 (see the Crystal Ball Email Archive on the 2006 House and Senate races), bu t it’s undeniable that they have opportunities galore in the Governorships this year. Opportunity is not reality, though, and on prior occasions the Democrats [...]
May 5th, 2005
,
Take a look at the table below, which illustrates changes in party control of Governorships from FDR to George W. Bush over a span of six decades (1942-2004). What do you see? As usual, it all depends on what you are looking for.
Most election years, especially in the last couple of [...]
April 28th, 2005
,
Partisan redistricting almost everywhere keeps the House of Representatives from demonstrating much of a political trend, unless the winds of change are hurricane-force. Senate contests are frequently idiosyncratic, distorted by the intense effects of incumbency and the massive spending of the wealthy. Moreover, only a third of the states feature Senate match-ups in any given [...]
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