November 21st, 2006
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Elections are the seminal event in the life of our democracy. Not only do they set the direction of our republic, campaigns and elections help to shed light on America’s state of political health. It is altogether fitting then, that an examination of our democracy and its current state take place in conjunction with [...]
November 21st, 2006
I hope that this Thanksgiving finds you in the best of spirits. As this thrilling election season winds down, I would like to take a moment to tell you more about the University of Virginia Center for Politics. I hope that our mission and activities might inspire you to include us in your philanthropic [...]
November 10th, 2006
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It’s been a long election season–seemingly much longer than midterms past–and your Crystal Ball is happy to have served our good readers right up until the end. As we mentioned in our final pre-election release, it’s been a wild ride as the dynamics of dozens of races have changed greatly from the spring to [...]
November 6th, 2006
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NOTE: Races we consider “Late Breakers”–those in which we have changed our outlook or prediction since Thursday–are denoted by arrows identifying the direction of momentum. Red arrows () indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows () signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.
Dear loyal readers,
What a wild ride it’s [...]
November 2nd, 2006
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Just how Democratic a year is 2006?
Five days out, let’s rephrase the question this way: when’s the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year?
We bet it’s never happened before, [...]
October 26th, 2006
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Dear Friends of the Crystal Ball,
We’ve been through a lot together this election cycle, and now we’re headed for the last round-up on November 7th. Your Crystal Ball staff will be tweaking our predictions right up until election eve, taking into account last-minute shifts, scandals, and surprises. But the outline of this [...]
October 26th, 2006
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Table 1. How High the Midterm Wave?
Year
President
HOUSE Gain or Loss
SENATE Gain or Loss
Size of Wave
For or Against President
1946
Truman (D)
-55
-12
High
Against
1950*
Truman (D)
-29
-6
Medium
Against
1954
Eisenhower (R)
-18
-1
Low
Against
1958*
Eisenhower (R)
-48
-13
High
Against
1962
Kennedy (D)
-4
+3
Low
Neutral/For
1966*
Johnson (D)
-47
-4
High
Against
1970
Nixon (R)
-12
+2
Low
Neutral/Against
1974*
Ford (R)
-48
-5
High
Against
1978
Carter (D)
-15
-3
Low
Against
1982
Reagan (R)
-26
+1
Medium
Against
1986*
Reagan (R)
-5
-8
Medium
Against
1990
Bush (R)
-9
-1
Low
Neutral/Against
1992
Clinton (D)
-52
-9
High
Against
1996*
Clinton (D)
+5
0
Low
For
2002
Bush (R)
+6
+2
Low
For
2006*
Bush (R)
-20 plus
-4 to -6
Medium or High
Against
* Indicates a “Sixth-Year Election.” 2006 losses based on current Crystal Ball projections.
October 20th, 2006
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Republicans don’t seem to be running for office these days, they look more like they’re limping. Severely crippled by the large forces of war and scandal, an unpopular President Bush and an even less popular GOP-led Congress appear to be inextricably joined in a three-legged sack race to Election Day as Democrats sprint ahead [...]
October 20th, 2006
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XX-00 – Outlook – Rep. First Last (X) will win reelection over First Last (X). Text text text text text text text text text text text text. >>>> Read more
XX-00 – Outlook – First Last (X) will unseat Rep. First Last (X). Text text text text text text text text text text text text. >>>> [...]
October 12th, 2006
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Just a few weeks ago, President Bush and the GOP appeared to be staging a remarkable comeback that would have enabled the Republicans to retain their congressional majorities. The Foley scandal and the deteriorating situation in Iraq have changed all that, and it is clear that as of mid-October, there is a Democratic gale [...]
October 5th, 2006
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One sign that a party is heading downhill is when it literally gives away seats in Congress. In 1994, the Democrats did so. Twelve years later, the Republicans are following suit.
Democrats seemed capable of just about one thing in 1994: hemorrhaging seats in Congress. Powerful Illinois Rep. Dan Rostenkowski (D) blew it [...]
September 29th, 2006
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The drumbeat has become the daily background noise in most Beltway political circles, as pervasive as it is percussive. It echoes on today, just as it has for well over a month: in just 40 days and 40 nights, Democrats will wake up to find that they have emerged from four years in the [...]
September 21st, 2006
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Recently I was in a taxi cab in San Antonio, Texas, and tossed out my favorite query for cabbies: “What’s the dumbest question you’ve ever been asked in your cab?” A lovely Latino lady who had been driving passengers for years said, “That’s easy. Just the other day a man asked me when we [...]
September 15th, 2006
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Watch out, folks! As of Tuesday, party nomination contests are “primarily” over (save for three states), and what a primary season it has been. But the same emotion that has characterized the summer primary season–the most powerful emotion in politics–shows scant signs of ebbing as we enter the fall.
There’s a lot of [...]
September 7th, 2006
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The death of Nellie Connally a few days ago brought back an aching shock and a flood of unhappy memories for Americans about fifty years of age and older. The last survivor of the JFK assassination car in Dallas, Mrs. Connally was the final personified reminder of a day that will live in infamy, [...]
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