Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2006 General’ Category

9th Annual American Democracy Conference

Center for Politics and The Hotline partner for Washington, DC event

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Elections are the seminal event in the life of our democracy. Not only do they set the direction of our republic, campaigns and elections help to shed light on America’s state of political health. It is altogether fitting then, that an examination of our democracy and its current state take place in conjunction with those […]

Dear Friends,

I hope that this Thanksgiving finds you in the best of spirits. As this thrilling election season winds down, I would like to take a moment to tell you more about the University of Virginia Center for Politics. I hope that our mission and activities might inspire you to include us in your philanthropic plans […]

Post-Election 2006: Playing the Numbers Game

News networks recognize Crystal Ball success rate

, U.Va. Center for Politics

It’s been a long election season–seemingly much longer than midterms past–and your Crystal Ball is happy to have served our good readers right up until the end. As we mentioned in our final pre-election release, it’s been a wild ride as the dynamics of dozens of races have changed greatly from the spring to the […]

Election Eve 2006: The Final Predictions

, U.Va. Center for Politics

NOTE: Races we consider “Late Breakers”–those in which we have changed our outlook or prediction since Thursday–are denoted by arrows identifying the direction of momentum. Red arrows () indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows () signify momentum for the Democratic candidate. Dear loyal readers, What a wild ride it’s been! As the […]

Crystal Ball 2006: The Predictions

Campaigns Clamor for Last-Minute Midterm "Mo"

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Just how Democratic a year is 2006? Five days out, let’s rephrase the question this way: when’s the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year? We bet it’s never happened before, and it certainly hasn’t […]

Crystal Ball Table for October 26 Email

How High the Midterm Wave?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Table 1. How High the Midterm Wave? Year President HOUSE Gain or Loss SENATE Gain or Loss Size of Wave For or Against President 1946 Truman (D) -55 -12 High Against 1950* Truman (D) -29 -6 Medium Against 1954 Eisenhower (R) -18 -1 Low Against 1958* Eisenhower (R) -48 -13 High Against 1962 Kennedy (D) […]

2006: The Big Picture

Twelve Days and Counting

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Dear Friends of the Crystal Ball, We’ve been through a lot together this election cycle, and now we’re headed for the last round-up on November 7th. Your Crystal Ball staff will be tweaking our predictions right up until election eve, taking into account last-minute shifts, scandals, and surprises. But the outline of this election couldn’t […]

Killer Instinct, Killer Wave – Gop Senate in Danger of Capsizing Too

PLUS: New Crystal Ball HotRace Readings, and COMING NOVEMBER 2nd: SABATO'S CRYSTAL BALL MIDTERM MATINEE

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Republicans don’t seem to be running for office these days, they look more like they’re limping. Severely crippled by the large forces of war and scandal, an unpopular President Bush and an even less popular GOP-led Congress appear to be inextricably joined in a three-legged sack race to Election Day as Democrats sprint ahead on […]

Template for Final Predictions

Wizard needs food...badly

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

XX-00 – Outlook – Rep. First Last (X) will win reelection over First Last (X). Text text text text text text text text text text text text. >>>> Read more XX-00 – Outlook – First Last (X) will unseat Rep. First Last (X). Text text text text text text text text text text text text. […]

A “Deep Blue Sea” In the 2006 Midterms?

Small Craft Advisory becomes Gale Warning for GOP

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Just a few weeks ago, President Bush and the GOP appeared to be staging a remarkable comeback that would have enabled the Republicans to retain their congressional majorities. The Foley scandal and the deteriorating situation in Iraq have changed all that, and it is clear that as of mid-October, there is a Democratic gale a […]

October Surprise! (And a Leadership Demise?)

Bombshell Leaves Republicans with Unwanted Fall "Foley-Age"

, U.Va. Center for Politics

One sign that a party is heading downhill is when it literally gives away seats in Congress. In 1994, the Democrats did so. Twelve years later, the Republicans are following suit. Democrats seemed capable of just about one thing in 1994: hemorrhaging seats in Congress. Powerful Illinois Rep. Dan Rostenkowski (D) blew it in a […]

The Lay of the Land in 2006: Republicans Could Stay Dry on Higher Ground

PLUS - The 2006 Midterm Map of America

, U.Va. Center for Politics

The drumbeat has become the daily background noise in most Beltway political circles, as pervasive as it is percussive. It echoes on today, just as it has for well over a month: in just 40 days and 40 nights, Democrats will wake up to find that they have emerged from four years in the wilderness, […]

Dumb Questions for the 2008 Presidential Contest

PLUS - September 19 Primary Updates

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Recently I was in a taxi cab in San Antonio, Texas, and tossed out my favorite query for cabbies: “What’s the dumbest question you’ve ever been asked in your cab?” A lovely Latino lady who had been driving passengers for years said, “That’s easy. Just the other day a man asked me when we passed […]

Angry Politics: “Voters Gone Wild” In 2006

PLUS - New Crystal Ball HotRace Readings

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Watch out, folks! As of Tuesday, party nomination contests are “primarily” over (save for three states), and what a primary season it has been. But the same emotion that has characterized the summer primary season–the most powerful emotion in politics–shows scant signs of ebbing as we enter the fall. There’s a lot of anger on […]

The Politics of Sad Memory: Mega-Moments in Modern American History

PLUS - New Senate, House, and Governor Outlook Summary Charts

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The death of Nellie Connally a few days ago brought back an aching shock and a flood of unhappy memories for Americans about fifty years of age and older. The last survivor of the JFK assassination car in Dallas, Mrs. Connally was the final personified reminder of a day that will live in infamy, November […]