November 1, 2004 Update: Republicans hold the Senate and add to their treasure trove of seats. We project 53-46, with only the Louisiana seat probably headed for a December run-off. If we are surpsised on Tuesday it will be because Republican David Vitter has crossed the 50-percent mark giving the GOP 54 seats in the upper chamber.
| State | Outlook (Confidence) | Current Party | Crystal Ball Says |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Democratic (Low) | Republican | Only Bush can elect Murkowski; she cannot do it on her own given the power of the nepotism anger. We give a thin edge to Democrat Tony Knowles, but Bush may pull Murkowski to victory. |
| Arkansas | Democratic (High) | Democratic | |
| Arizona | Republican (High) | Republican | |
| California | Democratic (High) | Democratic | |
| Colorado | Democratic (Low) | Republican | Salazar has just enough to overcome the Coors name, or so we think. |
| Connecticut | Democratic (High) | Democratic | |
| Florida | Republican (Low) | Democratic | Martinez in a squeaker. |
| Georgia | Republican (High) | Democratic | |
| Hawaii | Democratic (High) | Democratic | |
| Iowa | Republican (High) | Republican | |
| Idaho | Republican (High) | Republican | |
| Illinois | Democratic (High) | Republican | Our only remaining question: Will Obama cross the 70 percent mark? We think so. |
| Indiana | Democratic (High) | Democratic | |
| Kansas | Republican (High) | Republican | |
| Kentucky | Republican (Low) | Republican | If Kentucky were not voting so heavily for Bush, this could easily be an upset in the Senate. As it is, we think Bunning will barely pull it out. |
| Louisiana | Republican (Low) | Democratic | This contest probably won’t be decided until December, but we lean it to Republican David Vitter, but for now we will leave this Senate race undecided. |
| Maryland | Democratic (High) | Democratic | |
| Missouri | Republican (High) | Republican | |
| North Carolina | Republican (Low) | Democratic | Republican Richard Burr apparently has moved ahead of Democrat Erskine Bowles, but we could be fooled on this one. We give it to Burr very tentatively. |
| North Dakota | Democratic (High) | Democratic | |
| New Hampshire | Republican (High) | Republican | |
| Nevada | Democratic (High) | Democratic | |
| New York | Democratic (High) | Democratic | |
| Ohio | Republican (High) | Republican | |
| Oklahoma | Republican (Low) | Republican | The Bush margin here will pull Republican Tom Coburn across the finish line, but a great race by Democrat Brad Carson. |
| Oregon | Democratic (High) | Democratic | |
| Pennsylvania | Republican (High) | Republican | |
| South Carolina | Republican (Medium) | Democratic | If this were an off-year race, we could imagine Tenenbaum winning, but it isn’t and we think the Bush margin will elect Republican Jim DeMint by an unimpressive margin. |
| South Dakota | Republican (Low) | Democratic | We are giving this to Republican John Thune. We have no great confidence in the prediction, and believe it will be very close, but our sources in South Dakota tell us that there could be a Republican wave building there. |
| Utah | Republican (High) | Republican | |
| Vermont | Democratic (High) | Democratic | |
| Washington | Democratic (Medium) | Democratic | |
| Wisconsin | Democratic (High) | Democratic | |
| Republicans: 53 / Democrats: 46 (including Independents) / December Run-off: 1 (LA) | |||
Current Crystal Ball Projections: (including incumbents not up in 2004)
Solid, Likely, or Leaning Republican: 49
Solid, Likely, or Leaning Democratic: 44
Toss-up: 7
After a tough 2002 cycle when there were 20 GOP Senate seats and only 14 Democratic seats up for election, the Republicans catch a break in 2004. With four more Democratic seats at risk in ‘04, the GOP has more targets of opportunity, at least on paper.
Everything depends on the drift in the presidential race, the quality and bank accounts of the incumbents and challengers, and other factors that will emerge in the remaining weeks. But for now, let’s take a look at all the 2004 seats, focusing especially on the competitive contests. Click on each state for detailed analysis.
November 4th, 2004
,
Building on the success from the 2002 midterm elections, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 97 percent of Senate races. In the first hours of election night it was clear that Republicans would enlarge their majority in the upper chamber of Congress, but three contests gave the Crystal Ball a moment of pause.
As the first results [...]
October 22nd, 2004
The race for Colorado’s open Senate seat, being vacated by republican Ben Campbell, pits Democrat Ken Salazar against Republican Pete Coors. Colorado is traditionally a Republican stronghold, but nothing could be farther from the truth this year. Most polls in the state show a close race, with the latest poll, compiled by Survey USA, having [...]
October 22nd, 2004
It has been thirty years since the state of Alaska elected a Democrat to the Senate, but the outcome of this year’s Senate race is anything but certain for the GOP. The seat is currently held by Republican Lisa Murkowski, who was appointed by her father, Frank Murkowski, who won the governor’s mansion in 2002 [...]
October 22nd, 2004
With his failed bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, Senator Bob Graham of Florida announced his retirement from the United States Senate. The political juggernaut of Florida who won his last two races for the Senate with at least 62 percent of the vote is now gone; the Democrats and Republicans are now [...]
October 22nd, 2004
With Louisiana’s open primary system, the slate of candidates facing voters on Election Day isn’t as simple as one Democrat against one Republican. Any number of candidates from any party may enter the race, but to be declared the winner, one must secure a majority of votes. In a race with seven official candidates–four of [...]
October 22nd, 2004
Missourians, as you may have heard from pundits, have the unique ability to refer to their home as a “microcosm” of American Politics—at least in presidential races. For over the past century, Missouri voters have sided correctly with every presidential contest victor, save one: Adlai Stevenson in 1956. The balanced yet uncertain political atmosphere makes [...]
October 22nd, 2004
With the upcoming Nov. 2 elections, Tar Heels have more on their minds than the presidential race. John Kerry’s running mate, Senator John Edwards, who upon accepting his vice-presidential bid vacated his seat in the Senate, leaves North Carolina voters with a choice between two replacements: Democrat Erskine Bowles and Republican Richard Burr. Three key [...]
October 22nd, 2004
With the retirement of Senator Ernest “Fritz” Hollings, the Republican Party has been poised to take this seat in one of the most conservative states in the union. After a tight primary that led to a runoff, the ball was handed to Representative Jim DeMint and the field was wide open. However, before reaching the [...]
October 22nd, 2004
In a state so closely divided, Republican Arlen Specter’s bid for reelection against Democratic challenger Joe Hoeffel has important implications for Pennsylvania, the make-up of the Senate, and possibly the presidential election. Specter had earlier in the year encountered some rough going on the campaign trail with a very close call—by the standards of a [...]
October 22nd, 2004
For years, Senator Russ Feingold has proven himself as a tenacious underdog who has always beat the odds. He squeaked his way through a three-way Democratic primary with less money than his opponents by using quirky, catchy television ads as his two opponents tore each other apart. He then went on to unseat Senator Bob [...]
October 22nd, 2004
With the retirement of Republican senator Don Nickles, an interesting contest has broken out between two self-described outsiders: physician and former Representative Tom Coburn for the Republicans, and Representative Brad Carson for the Democrats.
Several factors have nudged this race left and right, but have eventually leveled out right down the middle. Tom Coburn entered with [...]
October 22nd, 2004
Aside from Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle sits atop the Republican hit list in this electoral cycle. Republicans eye him as the front man for obstructing their legislation and judicial nominees in the Senate. Now, they have a strong candidate gunning for Daschle, former Congressman John Thune, who narrowly lost [...]
October 4th, 2004
,
President
It’s all about Bush, the incumbent, especially after John Kerry’s success in the first presidential debate in shifting the focus back to the performance of the Bush administration. The people will vote “thumbs up/thumbs down” based on Bush’s handling of the twin challenges of a shaky economy and a continuing war in Iraq. Just as [...]
April 28th, 2004
,
Specter just barely squeaked it out. This is not particularly impressive – to say the least – for a 24-year Senate incumbent who had the strong support of the president, the other senator (a strong conservative), and just about everybody else. Plus, commentators were almost unanimous in saying that if Toomey won, the seat would [...]
Facebook
Twitter
Subscribe to RSS
