Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2004 President’ Category

A Look Back, a Look Forward

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

What an election! Whether you liked or disliked the outcome, surely you must agree that this contest will be remembered by history. We have not seen such intensity since 1968, and not coincidentally, the turnout of eligible adult Americans appears to have been larger in 2004 than any presidential year since…1968. We’re proud of our […]

Bush Captures Second Term

"Tolerant" blue states and "traditional" red states continue to show their colors

, Senior Writer

It’s impossible to fully understand the results of the 2004 presidential election without first reexamining the 2000 results. The map created by the Bush-Gore race illustrated the country’s division into the “tolerant” Blue States and the “traditional” Red States, and appeared to be one that would stay with us for a while. Based primarily on […]

The Final Predictions

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

As we conclude this amazing election campaign, we have just one question for our readers: When has an incumbent candidate ever won when he is tied with his challenger on election eve? The answer is never–at least in the age of polling that began in the 1930s. So George W. Bush needs to beat history, […]

Young People: They’re Registered, but Will They Vote?

, Director of Programs, U.Va. Center for Politics

Recent registration efforts have mobilized young people in an unprecedented fashion. According to the recent Ipsos/GENEXT Presidential Poll (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6273246/site/newsweek/) released this week, nearly one in three registered voters under 30 have registered to vote within the past six months. The registration efforts seem to have had the most impact on 18 to 21 year olds, […]

Tight as a Tick

But decisive trends emerging

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

George W. Bush has a slight edge in the last week of the election, but his lead is paper-thin. It must be worrisome to his campaign that he is currently lacking a 3 percent to 5 percent polling advantage in many essential battleground states. Bush may well need this beyond-the-margin-of-error buffer to overcome the torrid […]

Baseball and the 2004 Election

, Senior Writer

Yesterday the political world was abuzz with talk of a potential World Series match up between the Boston Red Sox from John Kerry’s home state of Massachusetts and the Houston Astros from George Bush’s home state of Texas. Never has there been a team from the home state of each presidential candidate, and the St. […]

2004 as the Bizzaro Election of 1916

, Senior Writer

All the way back in May, the Crystal Ball explored the possibility of “Bush as Truman” (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/LJS2004052001) in order to give some historical perspective for the 2004 election. It seems like eons have passed in the political world since the beginning of the summer, and while we gear up for the remaining 11 days before […]

So Close and Yet So Far

With just two weeks to go

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Our title refers to two climactic realities. With just 14 days to go in this remarkable election, both candidates are close to victory, yet distant in some ways from the 270 electoral-vote finish line. Moreover, these last 14 days will seem like 14 weeks. What happens in them will determine the winner; many events will […]

The Sprint to the Finish Line

Three weeks to go

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Oh, what a horse race we have on the track: two political thoroughbreds at full gallop! It is as tight as a tick, with all the excitement for which anyone could have hoped. Just three weeks remain–weeks that will fly by, but also move agonizingly slowly for those with a stake in the results (and […]

The Brutal Bottom Line

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

President It’s all about Bush, the incumbent, especially after John Kerry’s success in the first presidential debate in shifting the focus back to the performance of the Bush administration. The people will vote “thumbs up/thumbs down” based on Bush’s handling of the twin challenges of a shaky economy and a continuing war in Iraq. Just […]

To Repeat: Debates Matter

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Over the past several weeks, your Crystal Ball has received several dozen e-mails from Bush supporters, chiding us for not declaring the election and certifying their strongly held view that President Bush was the inevitable winner. Now, to their regret and sadness, our friends on the right have their answer, and perhaps they can see […]

The Old College Tie

, Senior Writer

Nobody could have predicted the political circus that ensued on Nov. 8, 2000. With Florida’s 25 electoral votes hanging in the balance, a controversial Supreme Court decision ended the 36-day battle for control of the White House. Of all the close elections in the last century, only the 2000 election produced a president with an […]

It’s Over!

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

No, not the presidential contest, but at long last, the nomination season for Senate, House and Governor came to an end with Hawaii the last state to cross the nomination finish line last week. This expansive nation of 50 states now takes almost nine months just to fill the party berths on the ballot from […]

The Debate Debate

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The candidates’ representatives are hard at work debating the debates–how many there should be, the topics, the conditions, and all the rest. In this hyper-partisan year, every detail will be fought over, even though little of it will matter in the end. Debates do matter, however, and perhaps more so in a macro-issue year like […]

The Labor Day Assessment

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Labor Day ain’t what it used to be. For generations the official start of the campaign, now it is merely a milestone indicating the beginning of the end. The presidential contest has been going full-tilt for a year and a half already! Yet with the conclusion of the Republican National Convention, we can look at […]