Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball

November 1, 2004 Update:

Not much change one way or the other. Republicans could add a few seats (+3), as we predict, or drop a few seats, but they are going to be in charge unless turnout is enormous, producing upsets from coast to the coast in the few available competitive races.

Complete House Breakdown (PDF)

State (District)	Outlook	Current Party
Arizona (1)	Republican	Republican
Colorado (3)	Democratic	Republican
Colorado (7)	Republican	Republican
Georgia (3)	Democratic	Democratic
Georgia (12)	Democratic	Republican
Illinois (8)	Democratic	Republican
Indiana (8)	Republican	Republican
Indiana (9)	Democratic	Democratic
Kansas (3)	Democratic	Democratic
Kentucky (3)	Republican	Republican
Kentucky (4)	Republican	Democratic
Louisiana (3)	Republican	Republican
Louisiana (7)	Republican	Democratic
Nebraska (1)	Republican	Republican
New York (1)	Democratic	Democratic
New York (27)	Democratic	Republican
Oregon (1)	Democratic	Democratic
Pennsylvania (6)	Republican	Republican
Pennsylvania (13)	Democratic	Democratic
Pennsylvania (15)	Republican	Republican
Pennsylvania (17)	Democratic	Democratic
South Dakota (At-large)	Democratic	Democratic
Texas (1)	Republican	Democratic
Texas (2)	Republican
Texas (17)	Democratic
Texas (19)	Republican	Republican
Texas (32)	Republican
Utah (2)	Democratic	Democratic
Washington (5)	Republican	Republican
Washington (8)	Republican	Republican
Democrats: 203 (including Independents) / Republicans: 232

October 22, 2004 Update: We’ve updated some races in the Dirty 30 list to reflect changing circumstances and conditions in congressional districts around the country. Click on the map above to view House races by state, or click view all to see the entire list. Next week we’ll make the final call on all of these races, but in the meantime our final prediction for control of the House will be somewhere near 232-235 R to 200-203 D.

October 15, 2004 Update: After hearing repeated calls for additions to the Dirty 30 list, the Crystal Ball has decided to supplement it with another list of races that we see as “getting dirtier.”

CA (20) – It’s hard to believe there’s only one competitive House
race out of the 53 seats in California, and it’s equally
hard to believe two candidates are vying to represent
fewer people than they currently represent as state
legislators! Nonetheless, state Sen. Jim Costa is the
favorite to win this open seat.
FL (2) – State legislator Bev Kilmer has been touted as Congressman
Allen Boyd’s toughest challenger yet, but Boyd remains a
popular figure in this Blue Dog, Tallahassee-based
district.
IA (3) – The Crystal Ball bets the outcome of this rehashed “duel
in Des Moines” will mirror the 2002 result, with the
four-term incumbent Boswell edging Thompson by a few
points.
MN (6) – Children’s advocate Patty Wetterling has attracted plenty
of attention for running an aggressive, grassroots
campaign against GOP incumbent Mark Kennedy, but Kennedy
has compiled a moderate record and remains the favorite.
NE (1) –
This year, the stars are as aligned as they’ll ever be for Democrats in the first district. State Senator Matt Connealy has all the characteristics of his party’s ideal candidate for east-central Nebraska: a proven vote-getter with a farming background and a conservative record. Add to the race a very conservative Republican nominee chosen from a fractured field, and all of a sudden a somewhat competitive race takes shape. Indeed, had the GOP nominated unicameral legislature Speaker Curt Bromm, the race would have likely been over before it even began. Instead, social conservative Jeff Fortenberry, a Lincoln Councilman, emerged victorious and will square off against Connealy in November. Excited Democrats talk of Nebraska’s tradition of playing down party labels as an asset for Connealy (parties technically don’t exist in the “Unicam”), but Republicans note that Fortenberry hails from the population center of the district, the university city of Lincoln, and has the campaign warchest to ride President Bush’s coattails to victory. Seeing as Cornhuskers’ loyalty to Republicans here runs almost as high as loyalty to their football team, Fortenberry has a clear edge, but this is still one to watch.
NV (3) – Casino executive Tom Gallagher won praise from national
Democrats for his strong fundraising start, but he hasn’t
gained much traction in recent polls and his best hope
here would be a strong Kerry win in the Silver State.
ND (AL) – Pomeroy’s reputation as a fierce prairie populist has kept
him politically afloat for years, and though he’s had some
near misses as North Dakota has gotten a point more
Republican every year, he faces a lesser challenge this
time around against Navy veteran Duane Sand.
TN (4) – Conservate Democrat Lincoln Davis’s first term has left
GOP challenger Janice Bowling with little ammunition for
criticism in this marginal territory, and though Bush is
likely to sweep this district, ticket-splitters are likely
to send Davis back for two more years.
PA (8) – The late departure of veteran GOP Rep. Jim Greenwood from
the race here catapulted one-time longshot Democrat Ginny
Schrader into real contention for this Bucks County-based
district, but replacement Republican Mike Fitzpatrick
still looks likely to hold the seat for his party.
VA (2) – GOP Congressman Ed Schrock first won election to the House in 2000 when he defeated Democrat Jody Wagner by several thousand votes, and he cruised to reelection in a reconfigured district two years later. But the recent revelation that Schrock may have tried to solicit a gay affair has not only thrown the national media into frenzy and led to his announcement of an early retirement, it has created a bit of an opening for Democrats to put this district, well-known as evangelist Pat Robertson’s backyard, into play. Republicans hastily nominated conservative State Delegate Thelma Drake to carry their banner in Schrock’s stead, and she will square off against attorney and Marine Corps veteran David Ashe in the general election. And although this area of Tidewater was proud of Schrock’s co-sponsorship of the House version of the Federal Marriage Amendment and is not likely to send the socially liberal Ashe to Washington, national Democrats are optimistic about their nominee’s military background and the endorsement he has received from popular former Democratic Rep. Owen Pickett. Now that this race has taken shape, it is clear Drake is the clear favorite for an unexpected promotion.

The current lineup of the House is 227 Republicans, 207 Democrats (including leftist Independent Bernie Sanders), and one GOP vacancy in Florida. Overall, the House is far less likely than the Senate to change hands in November. Given the nearly-automatic pick-up of 4-5 seats in redistricted Texas for the GOP, the odds are the Republican majority will expand rather than contract. Still, presidential coattails can matter, and if John Kerry wins the general election handily, the Republican margin could become very thin. Should George Bush manage a popular vote victory, the Republicans would nearly be guaranteed an enhanced House majority.

Now that the national House picture has begun to crystallize, it is clear that 2004 promises to continue the trend of a shrinking playing field of competitive districts and competitive races. As predicted, the chief side effect of now-completed redistricting for the decade has emerged as a striking decline in the number of truly “swing” districts across the nation, as many seats that were perennial targets of both parties in the 1990s have given way to incumbent-friendly, strongly partisan districts where party primaries are often tantamount to election. Majorities in state legislatures and even on bipartisan redistricting commissions, loath to place congressional party allies in tight races, have significantly altered the nature of the battle for the House for years to come.

Under these new circumstances, the Crystal Ball recognizes that large shifts in party makeup of the House are much less likely than they would have been in past decades, and that the radar screen of congressional races is simply unlikely to show the quantity of competitive contests it once produced consistently every two years. In 2004, the number of “toss up” House races may even be similar to the number of too-close-to-call Senate contests! For Democrats, currently facing a deficit of 22 seats in the House following a miserable 2002 midterm performance, this bodes poorly: party leaders privately acknowledge that the task of reclaiming the lower chamber in 2004 will prove a near-impossible feat barring a major top-of-the-ticket GOP disaster. In the eyes of Republicans, still glowing following the recent passage of controversial Texas re-redistricting in time for the 2004 contests, the dearth of swing seats is a welcome stabilizing factor and a key to long-term GOP success.

Still, in a year when Republican-friendly Lone Star State maneuvering has intensified national party animosities and many in the news media have (fairly or unfairly) portrayed special election contests as bellwethers in the context of the presidential race, national attention to the battle for the House won’t fall to the wayside. More so than ever before, national money is sure to flood a contracted playing field, with millions of dollars showering the handful of districts retaining close party balances. Once again, small to medium-size states like Colorado and Louisiana, which host a disproportionate share of this year’s competitive House races, will attract particular attention. The result of more money concentrated on fewer districts in a national political climate characterized by relative party parity and a polarized electorate will likely be a set of more contentious, down-and-dirty battles for House seats.

The Crystal Ball, though sad to put on hold its tradition of a Nifty Fifty set of exciting congressional races, is proud to unveil this year’s look at the races most worthy of our consideration: a group of the thirty truly competitive races across the country we’ve dubbed the Dirty Thirty.

In selecting these races, the Crystal Ball has been careful to consider several key factors. First, we’ve kept a close eye on the less than 30 open seats being vacated by incumbents in 2004, keeping in mind that these contents are especially sensitive to quality of candidate recruitment and national political winds. Second, we’ve taken a look at the reelection prospects of incumbents, especially freshman legislators, who have faced close races in the recent past, ever-mindful of the fact that the quality of both their challengers and their challengers’ fundraising holds the key to whether these races will truly be in play. Third, we’ve looked at how the presidential politics of 2004 has the potential to impact each of these contests, taking into account important states Bush and Kerry will target to get out base voters. Without further ado, here are the Crystal Ball’s picks for the “dirty thirty” races guaranteed to see the lion’s share of money and mudslinging.

Gop Increase House Numbers

Texas redistricting and Bush coattails give Republicans an edge

November 4th, 2004

Peter Jackson, Senior Writer

Partisan redistricting and the overwhelming power of incumbency makes it such that many of the 435 House races each year are either uncontested or finished well before they begin. Texas redistricting gave the GOP an edge in this year’s battle for control of the House. The five Texas House races in the Crystal Ball’s Dirty [...]

The Brutal Bottom Line

October 4th, 2004

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

President
It’s all about Bush, the incumbent, especially after John Kerry’s success in the first presidential debate in shifting the focus back to the performance of the Bush administration. The people will vote “thumbs up/thumbs down” based on Bush’s handling of the twin challenges of a shaky economy and a continuing war in Iraq. Just as [...]

Herseth Wins South Dakota

June 3rd, 2004

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

With all 798 precincts reporting, Stephanie Herseth (D) has won the statewide U.S. House seat in South Dakota. Precisely as the Crystal Ball predicted, this race got close at the end and Herseth pulled out a narrow 51percent to 49 percent victory â€“ a margin of 2,981 votes out of over a quarter of a [...]