Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Last Last Word

The Crystal Ball's Final Projections for the 2008 Election

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics November 3rd, 2008



ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE:


If Barack Obama wins the popular vote by 7 or 8 percentage points, then he will also carry at least a couple of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota.

If Barack Obama should end up by 3 or 4 percent of the popular vote, then it is possible that John McCain will carry a couple of the following states: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio.

The Crystal Ball expects Barack Obama to run closer to the maximum than to the minimum in the popular vote tally.



SENATE UPDATE:

CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS
State Incumbent Projected Result
Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor Democratic
Delaware Sen. Joe Biden Democratic
Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin Democratic
Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin Democratic
Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu Democratic
Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry Democratic
Michigan Sen. Carl Levin Democratic
Montana Sen. Max Baucus Democratic
New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg Democratic
Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed Democratic
South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson Democratic
West Virginia Sen. Jay Rockefeller Democratic
CURRENTLY HELD BY REPUBLICANS
State Incumbent Projected Result
Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions Republican
Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens Democratic
Colorado OPEN (Sen. Wayne Allard retiring)

Mark Udall (D) vs. Bob Schaffer (R)
Democratic
Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss ***
Idaho OPEN (Sen. Larry Craig retiring)

Larry LaRocco (D) vs. Jim Risch (R)
Republican
Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts Republican
Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell Republican
Maine Sen. Susan Collins Republican
Nebraska OPEN (Sen. Chuck Hagel retiring)

Scott Kleeb (D) vs. Mike Johanns (R)
Republican
New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu Democratic
New Mexico OPEN (Sen. Pete Domenici retiring)

Tom Udall (D) vs. Steve Pearce (R)
Democratic
North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole Democratic
Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman Republican
Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran Republican
Mississippi (special) OPEN (Sen. Trent Lott retiring)

Ronnie Musgrove (D) vs. Roger Wicker (R)
Republican
Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith Democratic
Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe Republican
South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham Republican
Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander Republican
Texas Sen. John Cornyn Republican
Virginia OPEN (Sen. John Warner retiring)

Mark Warner (D) vs. Jim Gilmore (R)
Democratic
Wyoming Sen. Mike Enzi Republican
Wyoming (special) Sen. John Barrasso (appointed) Republican

***We believe this race will go to a Dec. 2 runoff election. No candidate will receive 50 percent plus one on Nov. 4.

Projected results listed in italics are projected pick-ups for the opposing party.


GOVERNOR UPDATE:



Democratic
CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS
State Incumbent Projected Result
Delaware OPEN

Jack Markell (D) vs. Bill Lee (R)
Montana Brian Schweitzer Democratic
North Carolina OPEN

Beverly Perdue (D) vs. Pat McCrory (R)
Democratic
New Hampshire John Lynch Democratic
Washington Christine Gregoire Democratic
West Virginia Joe Manchin III Democratic



CURRENTLY HELD BY REPUBLICANS
State Incumbent Projected Result
Indiana Mitch Daniels Republican
Missouri OPEN

Jay Nixon (D) vs. Kenny Hulshof (R)
Democratic
North Dakota John Hoeven Republican
Utah Jon Huntsman, Jr. Republican
Vermont Jim Douglas Republican

Projected results listed in italics are projected pick-ups for the opposing party.


HOUSE UPDATE:

Produced under the direction of Isaac Wood and Paul Wiley.

Republican Held Seats in Play: 59

(The other 140 Republican-held seats are solid for the GOP.)


Republican Hold (30) Democratic Pick-up (29)
AL-02 (OPEN) AK-AL (Young)
AZ-03 (Shadegg) AZ-01 (OPEN)
CA-50 (Bilbray) CA-04 (OPEN)
FL-13 (Buchanan) CO-04 (Musgrave)
FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart) CT-04 (Shays)
IA-04 (Latham) FL-08 (Keller)
IL-18 (OPEN) FL-24 (Feeney)
IN-03 (Souder) FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart)
KY-02 (OPEN) ID-01 (Sali)
LA-04 (OPEN) IL-10 (Kirk)
LA-07 (Boustany) IL-11 (OPEN)
MD-01 (OPEN) MI-07 (Walberg)
MN-03 (OPEN) MI-09 (Knollenberg)
MO-06 (Graves) MN-06 (Bachmann)
MO-09 (OPEN) NC-08 (Hayes)
NE-02 (Terry) NJ-03 (OPEN)
NJ-05 (Garrett) NJ-07 (OPEN)
NV-02 (Heller) NM-01 (OPEN)
NY-26 (OPEN) NM-02 (OPEN)
OH-02 (Schmidt) NV-03 (Porter)
PA-06 (Gerlach) NY-13 (OPEN)
PA-15 (Dent) NY-25 (OPEN)
PA-18 (Murphy) NY-29 (Kuhl)
SC-01 (Brown) OH-01 (Chabot)
TX-07 (Culberson) OH-15 (OPEN)
TX-10 (McCaul) OH-16 (OPEN)
VA-02 (Drake) PA-03 (English)
VA-05 (Goode) VA-11 (OPEN)
WV-02 (Capito) WA-08 (Reichert)
WY-AL (OPEN)
WI-08 (Kagen)
TX-23 (Rodriguez)
PA-12 (Murtha)
PA-10 (Carney)
PA-08 (Murphy)
PA-04 (Altmire)
OR-05 (OPEN)
OH-18 (Space)
NY-24 (Arcuri)
NY-20 (Gillibrand)
NY-19 (Hall)
NH-02 (Hodes)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
MS-01 (Childers)
MN-01 (Walz)
LA-06 (Cazayoux)
KY-03 (Yarmuth)
KS-03 (Moore)
KS-02 (Boyda)
IN-09 (Hill)
IN-08 (Ellsworth)
IL-14 (Foster)
IL-08 (Bean)
GA-12 (Barrow)
GA-08 (Marshall)
CT-05 (Murphy)
CA-11 (McNerney)
TX-22 (Lampson) AZ-08 (Giffords)
PA-11 (Kanjorski) AZ-05 (Mitchell)
FL-16 (Mahoney) AL-05 (OPEN)
Republican Pick-up (3) Democratic Hold (30)

Democratic Held Seats in Play: 33

(The other 203 Democratic-held seats are solid for the Democrats.)