Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for July, 2018

The House Tilts Toward the Democrats

Big-picture factors help minority party, but battle far from over; 17 ratings changes in favor of Democrats

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: This is a special Tuesday edition of the Crystal Ball. We’ll be back to our regular Thursday schedule next week. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Democrats are now a little better than 50-50 to win the House. This is the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House […]

Mountain State Manchin-ations

The Democratic incumbent appears to be ahead in West Virginia’s Senate race, but Republicans remain overall favorites to control upper chamber

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is once again a small favorite in our ratings, moving from Toss-up to Leans Democratic in his race against state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R). — That ratings change leaves six Toss-ups on the Crystal Ball Senate map: Democrats are defending seats held by incumbents […]

Three Republican Governors Face Increasingly Tough Election Contests

Ratings changes in Arizona, Illinois, and Iowa

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Crystal Ball has three ratings changes in gubernatorial contests, all shifts in the Democrats’ direction: Arizona moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, Illinois moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, and Iowa moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. New ratings in Arizona, Illinois, and Iowa Arizona and […]

New Poll: Americans Strongly Support Term Limits for Judges

Whatever price elected Republicans eventually pay for standing by President Donald J. Trump — and every party eventually pays at least some price for holding the White House — one could argue that Republicans have already gotten enough from Trump to justify backing him. In his always-interesting quarterly report, GOP lobbyist Bruce Mehlman has compiled […]

Center for Politics/Ipsos poll: Just Half of Americans Believe Elections Are Fair and Open

New national survey shows Americans critical of big money in politics, supportive of disclosure, but skeptical of judicial intervention

  Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We will also have an issue Thursday, July 19.   Only about half of American adults believe elections are fair and open, and large majorities of Americans express skepticism about big money in politics and favor disclosure of donations. […]

Registering By Party: Where the Democrats and Republicans Are Ahead

, Senior Columnist

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In […]