Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for May, 2018

A Post-Memorial Day Status Report

Where things stand in the battles for Congress and the governorships

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE — Both Democrats and Republicans have about equal odds of winning the House majority. — Republicans remain clearly favored in the battle for Senate control. — Democrats should start 2019 with at least a few more net governorships than they hold now. Checking in on 2018’s big picture In a […]

Clues from the Upcoming California Primary

Plus: Updates from Tuesday night’s primaries

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The California primary on June 5 is the most important election in the battle for the House prior to November. — Democrats are hoping to avoid getting shut out of November by the state’s top-two primary in multiple districts, and the results should provide a rough guide for the […]

The Democrats’ Drive for 25 in the House: An Update

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — This piece revisits a proposed path to a Democratic House majority we sketched out in early February. — Overall, the Democrats’ odds in the districts mentioned have largely but not universally gotten a little better. — The California primary on June 5 looms as the most important date […]

Mad As Hell: How Anger Diminishes Trust in Government

With politics increasingly defined by feelings of anger toward the opposing party, trust in government is bound to decline unless something changes drastically

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Over the past 60 years, trust in government has declined precipitously. Whereas high levels of trust in the national government were typical during the Eisenhower Administration, by 2016 only a fifth of Americans said they trusted the government “always” or “most of the time.” — Using a survey experiment […]

The Very Stable House Generic Ballot

Outside of a high in December, the Democrats have held a lead of roughly six to eight points

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — On average, Democrats led the generic ballot by 7.1 points over the past year. The monthly average ranged from 6.2 points in February 2018 to 10.1 points in December 2017. The December result was clearly an outlier, however, and may have led to a misinterpretation of more recent results […]

Ratings Changes: Senate, Governor, House

Both parties generally avoided bad choices in Tuesday’s primaries

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republican primary voters avoided a self-inflicted wound in West Virginia when disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship (R) finished third in the GOP Senate primary. — Much else went as expected Tuesday night. — Five ratings changes this week affect races for Senate, governor, and House, but most importantly broaden […]

Ohio’s Primary: The Heart of It All

The Buckeye State’s bellwether status may be fading, but a wild May and November to come reflect some major national trends

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The fissures emerging in both parties are evident in Ohio as the state holds its primary next week on May 8. — The likeliest matchup in the state’s open-seat gubernatorial race is a rematch of 2010’s battle for state attorney general, as former AG Richard Cordray (D)[1] and current […]

In the Battle for the House, the 2016 Presidential Results Don’t Tell the Whole Tale

Third-party showings, previous candidate performance also important in rating House races

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A surprising result in two special House elections last year, when Democrats ended up coming closer to winning an overlooked race in South Carolina than a nationally-watched contest in Georgia, showed an overreliance on past presidential election history to project House results. — When assessing the true Democratic targets […]