Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for April, 2018

Raising the Ceiling, but Not the Floor, on Potential Democratic House Gains

Playing field widens even as odds of turnover don’t change

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The number of potentially vulnerable Republican seats is growing, and we’re adding an extra 10 GOP-held seats to the Likely Republican column this week. — All of these members remain solid favorites for reelection, but at the same time, many seem likely to face better-funded challengers than they are […]

California Dreamin’: Carving the Golden State Into Thirds

Examining the hypothetical political impact of dividing California into three states

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The “Cal 3” initiative is the latest in a long line of proposals to divide California into multiple states. This plan aims to carve up the Golden State into three new states. — While the proposal has little chance of success, hypothetically the fragmentation of California would have notable […]

History Suggests Double Trouble for Incumbent Trump

, Guest Columnist

This is part one of a back-and-forth between Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik and veteran reporter and presidential historian Paul Brandus assessing President Donald Trump’s reelection odds in 2020. See the piece from Kondik here. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — President Trump’s weak approval rating is a bad sign for […]

Underestimate Trump’s Reelection Odds at Your Own Peril

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

This is part two of a back-and-forth between Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik and veteran reporter and presidential historian Paul Brandus assessing President Trump’s reelection odds in 2020. See the piece from Brandus here. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — So long as President Trump is on the ballot in 2020, […]

Empire State of Mind: New York’s Simmering Democratic Primary for Governor

While Gov. Andrew Cuomo is a strong favorite, his renomination battle may prove to be one of the most interesting gubernatorial primaries in 2018

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: — As he seeks a third term, Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) is favored to win renomination in what could be a high-profile primary against actress and activist Cynthia Nixon (D). — However, Cuomo often has upset the left and there may be a path for a challenger. That path likely […]

Explaining Support for Trump in the White Working Class: Race vs. Economics

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Data from the Pew Research Center show that six months into Donald Trump’s presidency, the gap between whites with and without college degrees in opinions of the president was enormous. Non-college whites were far more likely to approve of Trump’s performance than white college graduates. — This gap appears […]

Exit Paul Ryan

Another blow to Republican odds in the House

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — House Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R, WI-1) retirement makes his now-open seat a Toss-up, although the seat definitely sits to the right of the national average. — Ryan’s departure adds to an already high number of open seats, and some Republicans could take his exit as a signal to leave […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Mirror images of vulnerability; two statewide Democrats get upgrades; electoral consequences from #MeToo

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The partisan structure of the races for governorships and Senate seats are now exact mirror opposites. — Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) get ratings upgrades. — Rep. Elizabeth Esty’s (D, CT-5) retirement gives Republicans an upset opportunity and is another example of how #MeToo is […]