Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for March, 2018

The House Exodus

How the historically high number of open seats affects the November calculus

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As of this writing, just 379 of 435 House districts will have incumbents running in them this November. That’s the second-lowest total of the post-World War II era. — The 56 total open districts include 37 open Republican-held seats and 19 open Democratic seats. — The best pickup opportunities […]

The Seats/Votes Relationship and the Efficiency Gap: House Elections 1972-2016

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The efficiency gap is a way to measure whether one party receives disproportionately more or fewer U.S. House seats compared to their share of the national House popular vote. — In the 1970s and 1980s, the Democrats generally won a greater share of seats than their total vote would […]

Exit Stage Left or Right: Midterm Retirements and Open Seats in the House From 1974 to 2018

Republicans already have many abandoned districts to defend this November. Are there more to come?

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — By multiple measures — such as retirements, “pure” retirements, and open seats that must be defended — this cycle’s GOP has one of the highest levels of exposure in the U.S. House of any presidential party dating back to 1974. — Republicans already have more retirements than any presidential […]

Illinois Primary: Rauner Is Reeling

The Land of Lincoln’s gubernatorial contest now Leans Democratic

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) endured a difficult night on Tuesday. Although he won his party’s primary to earn a reelection shot in November, the contest in some ways confirmed his overall weakness as the most endangered incumbent Republican governor facing the voters in 2018. As such, the Crystal Ball is moving the Illinois gubernatorial contest […]

Are Republicans in More Special Trouble?

Assessing upcoming House specials in Arizona and Ohio after Lamb’s upset in Pennsylvania

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — An apparent Democratic takeover in a western Pennsylvania House district that President Trump won by 20 points is an embarrassing setback for Republicans. — The Republicans’ poor special election performances in general, combined with other factors such as the president’s low approval rating and a Democratic lead on House […]

The Modern History of Special Election Swing

PA-18 swung sharply against the president’s party. How does it compare to past House specials?

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Based on the two-party vote, Trump won PA-18 by 20.3 points in 2016 while losing the national popular vote by 2.2 percentage points, meaning the district’s lean was 22.5 points to the right of the nation as a whole. Conor Lamb’s (D) apparent victory margin of 0.3 points in […]

House 2018: 26 Ratings Changes, All in Favor of Democrats

PA-18 special now a Toss-up; Democratic incumbents in strong position; and what about Paul Ryan?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — With less than a week to go, the PA-18 special election moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. — In addition to that ratings change, we are making 25 other changes in the House, all in favor of Democrats. — No Democratic incumbent is now rated worse than Likely Democratic, […]

Donald Trump’s Short Congressional Coattails

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Although Donald Trump is remaking the Republican Party in his image, he had among the shortest coattails of any presidential winner going back to Dwight Eisenhower. In 2016, Trump ran ahead of just 24 of 241 Republican House winners and only five of 22 Republican Senate winners. — While […]