Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for February, 2018

The Low Success Rate of Independent and Third-Party Candidates in Senate Elections

The long odds against Craig O’Dear in Missouri

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Missouri independent candidate Craig O’Dear is running for U.S. Senate in 2018 but faces long odds of winning. — Independent and third-party candidates tend to do poorly in most partisan elections, but they have a particularly poor track record in Senate contests. Only 11 candidates in 14 elections have […]

Rating the New Pennsylvania House Map

Democrats now better-positioned to make gains

, UVA Center for Politics

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Assuming that a new court-drawn U.S. House map stands, Democrats should be able to cut into the Keystone State’s currently 13-5 Republican House majority. — The new map created one easy Democratic pickup, three Republican-held Toss-ups, and two other GOP seats that might be Democratic targets. — With an […]

Public Rates Presidents: Kennedy, Reagan, Obama at Top, Nixon, Johnson, Trump at Bottom

Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics poll measures views of recent chief executives at Presidents’ Day

As Americans prepare to celebrate Presidents’ Day, they rate John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan the best of recent chief executives, according to a new poll conducted by Ipsos in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics. The Center for Politics and Ipsos collaborated to survey Americans’ views of modern presidents and asked […]

Senate 2018: Republicans Still Have Plenty of Targets

And Democrats need all the breaks to win a majority

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republicans have better than 50-50 odds to hold control of the U.S. Senate even in the event of a Democratic wave in November. — The reason is the map: Including the two independents who caucus with them, the Democrats are defending 26 of the 34 seats being contested this […]

The Districts That Will Determine the Next House Majority

Charting out the Democrats’ path to 218 seats, district by district

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — In sketching out a potential path to a bare Democratic House majority of 218 seats out of 435, we found that in all likelihood the Democrats will need to win similar numbers of Republican-held seats won by Hillary Clinton as well as by Donald Trump in the last presidential […]