Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for January, 2018

Open Season in the House

Republicans retirements give Democrats some clear targets, but path to House majority more about beating incumbents

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — So far there are 46 House seats where an incumbent won’t be running for reelection in November. That is already above the postwar average, and more open seats are likely. — The current list of retirees includes 31 Republicans and 15 Democrats. Wave years sometimes but not always feature […]

The Governors: Judge 2018 by the Big States

Democrats will net governorships, but which ones those are will define November’s true winner

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  Dear Readers: We realize that our pieces can get quite lengthy sometimes. While we know that all readers read every single word (wink wink), we’re going to start offering brief synopses at the top of our longer articles to allow readers who are in a hurry to get the gist. We will include any […]

For New Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith, a Lesser Form of Incumbency

Appointed senators have worse electoral records than elected ones in both primaries and general elections

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Tuesday, now-former Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) officially resigned from the U.S. Senate following allegations of inappropriate behavior toward women. As we discussed in our last newsletter for 2017, Franken’s resignation means that Minnesota will hold a special election for Senate this coming November, which will take place at the same time as the regular […]