Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for January, 2018

Mixed Signals: Analyzing Elections since Trump Won the Presidency

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — In 2013 elections, Democratic candidates ran behind Barack Obama’s 2012 two-party vote percentage by an average of 5.9 percentage points. A great Republican cycle in 2014 followed. In elections since December 2016, Republican candidates have run an average of 2.6 points behind Donald Trump’s 2016 two-party vote share, a […]

Revisiting Virginia’s Vote

Analyzing the popular vote in the House of Delegates and the coattails effect

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — Democrats won the two-party popular vote in the House of Delegates 54.8%-45.2% but carried just 49 of 100 seats in the chamber. — Adjusting for uncontested seats, Democrats won an estimated vote of 51.7% to the GOP’s 48.3% in the two-party vote. According to this percentage and the Democratic […]

Open Season in the House

Republicans retirements give Democrats some clear targets, but path to House majority more about beating incumbents

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — So far there are 46 House seats where an incumbent won’t be running for reelection in November. That is already above the postwar average, and more open seats are likely. — The current list of retirees includes 31 Republicans and 15 Democrats. Wave years sometimes but not always feature […]


Democrats will net governorships, but which ones those are will define November’s true winner

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  Dear Readers: We realize that our pieces can get quite lengthy sometimes. While we know that all readers read every single word (wink wink), we’re going to start offering brief synopses at the top of our longer articles to allow readers who are in a hurry to get the gist. We will include any […]

For New Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith, a lesser form of incumbency

Appointed senators have worse electoral records than elected ones in both primaries and general elections

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Tuesday, now-former Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) officially resigned from the U.S. Senate following allegations of inappropriate behavior toward women. As we discussed in our last newsletter for 2017, Franken’s resignation means that Minnesota will hold a special election for Senate this coming November, which will take place at the same time as the regular […]