Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for December, 2017

The Minnesota Twins: A Complete History of Double-Barrel Senate Elections

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Crystal Ball will be away next week. We’ll be back on Thursday, Jan. 4. We wish you and your family Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. — The Editors Sen. Al Franken’s (D) impending resignation due to sexual harassment allegations will create a vacancy in Minnesota’s Class II Senate seat, precipitating a special election in […]

Partisan Gerrymandering and the Outlook for the 2018 U.S. House Elections

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

There is a growing sense among political observers that the United States may be heading toward a wave election in 2018. Results of recent special elections, including Doug Jones’ (D) victory in the Alabama Senate race on Tuesday, along with Democratic victories in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and surprisingly large Democratic gains […]

Blue Stars Fell on Alabama

Jones win another confirmation of Democratic momentum, even taking Moore’s horrible candidacy into account

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Prior to the Alabama special Senate election on Tuesday night, there was an ongoing discussion in the media about whether the Republicans would lose either way in Alabama. But as bad as it would have been for Republicans to have had Roy Moore (R) in their Senate caucus, losing this seat is, in our view, […]

Franken Out? How We’d Rate a Minnesota Senate Special

Plus two House ratings changes

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

As of Wednesday night, it appeared as though Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) was poised to announce his resignation from the Senate on Thursday morning. Franken has faced several credible accusations of groping women and making unwanted sexual advances, and on Wednesday, the dam finally broke and a slew of his Democratic Senate colleagues began asking […]

Alabama Senate: Closing Time

As the race draws to a close, we look at Roy Moore’s advantages — and Doug Jones’ narrow path to victory

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

This coming Tuesday, Alabamians will go to the polls to decide their next U.S. senator in a rare December special election. While the Yellowhammer State is heavily Republican — President Donald Trump carried it by 28 percentage points in 2016 — the Senate contest is a Toss-up. The candidacy of the Republican nominee, former Alabama […]

Can Twitter Predict Elections?

One firm says yes, and they say the tweets point to a Jones win in Alabama

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In the aftermath of the 2016 election, one couldn’t be blamed for looking beyond polls for indicators about who might be favored in difficult-to-predict elections. That’s not necessarily to supplant polling, which we still see as the best way to measure an electorate and its intentions, but rather to augment it. Additional sources may be […]