Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for November, 2017

House 2018: Less Than a Year Out, Race for Control Is a Coin Flip

25 ratings changes, mostly in Democrats’ favor

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In the aftermath of the 2014 midterm election, when the party that didn’t hold the White House (the Republicans) gained ground in the House for the 36th time in 39 midterms since the Civil War, I wrote the following in the Center for Politics’ postmortem on the election, The Surge: Practically speaking, though, House Democrats […]

Alabama Senate: It’s a Toss-Up

Post-Thanksgiving polls suggest Roy Moore is rebounding

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With less than two weeks to go until the Alabama Senate runoff, we’re pulling back our Leans Democratic rating in the race and going to Toss-up. We just don’t feel comfortable making anyone a favorite at this point. The race is as stern a test of tribal partisanship as one will find, with very Republican […]

Alabama Senate: Jones Now Narrowly Favored

The consequences of the awful allegations against Roy Moore; plus, stirrings of an upset in Tennessee?

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s note: The Crystal Ball will not be publishing next week. We wish our readers a Happy Thanksgiving. It’s amazing to write, and there’s time for our outlook to change, but here goes: A Democrat is now a narrow favorite to win a Senate special election in Alabama. We’re changing our rating of the Dec. […]

Watch the 2017 American Democracy Conference

The Center for Politics’ 19th annual confab looks ahead to 2018 and 2020 while looking back on Trump’s first year

On Nov. 16, the University of Virginia Center for Politics hosts the 19th annual American Democracy Conference in Charlottesville, VA. The conference features leading journalists and political experts discussing the upcoming 2018 midterm election cycle, the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency, and early thoughts on the 2020 presidential election. The conference is taking place […]

Democratic Domination in the Old Dominion

Danger signs abound for the GOP, with a few caveats

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s note: This piece is based on unofficial 2017 election returns. Tuesday represented the best non-presidential election night Democrats have had since 2006. They swept the statewide ticket in Virginia for the second election in a row, and they picked up the New Jersey governorship. They also won a crucial, majority-making state Senate election in […]

Signs and Portents

What we’ll be looking for in Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In an off-year long on election commentary but short on actual elections, the two main events on a Spartan political calendar are now upon us: New Jersey and Virginia will elect new governors next week, and the stakes are high, particularly for Democrats. As we have argued before, the only way the Democrats can be […]