Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for August, 2017

The Politics of Disasters

What history tells us about the potential effects of Hurricane Harvey

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Throughout the first 200-plus days of Donald Trump’s presidency, it’s been common for analysts to say he is struggling through sub-40% approval ratings despite not having to reckon with a major non-scandal crisis. Whether that was true before last weekend is debatable — do North Korea’s provocations count? — but it’s almost certainly not true […]

Senate 2018: Republican Edge Runs Up Against Trump, History

Beyond president’s poor numbers lies difficulty of beating out-of-power party incumbents

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Ever since Donald Trump won the presidency, 2018’s race for the Senate seemed to pit two powerful, competing forces against one another: the Republicans’ long and enticing list of Democratic targets, several of which are in some of Trump’s best states, versus the longstanding tendency of the president’s party to struggle to make gains in […]

Governors 2017-2018: The Democrats’ Complicated Path to Big Gains

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  Dear Readers: Before we start this week, we wanted to pay tribute to the three people who died over the weekend because of the abhorrent neo-Nazi rally in Charlottesville: Heather D. Heyer and Lt. H. Jay Cullen and Trooper Berke M. M. Bates of the Virginia State Police, as well as those injured. The […]

Alabama’s Long History With Senate Special Elections

Engaging primaries and intraparty battles are nothing new in the Yellowhammer State

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The 2017 Alabama special election for the U.S. Senate kicks off with party primaries this coming Tuesday (Aug. 15). Should one or both parties have no candidate win a majority that day, a primary runoff will take place on Sept. 26. Both sides have crowded fields, but given the dark red hue of the state, […]

Forecast Model Suggests Democratic Gains Likely in 2018 Gubernatorial Contests

, Senior Columnist

In addition to the entire U.S. House of Representatives and about one-third of the U.S. Senate, Americans will be choosing 36 state governors in 2018. Control of statehouses is crucial not only because many important policy decisions are made at the state level, but because the governors elected next year will, in many cases, play […]

Senate Ratings Change: Heller Moves to Toss-Up

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The failure — so far, anyway — of Senate Republicans to concoct a health care proposal that could win the necessary 50 votes from the 52-member GOP Senate caucus must have proven particularly agonizing for Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV). The endangered senator, who is the only Republican from a state that Hillary Clinton carried facing […]