Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for July, 2017

House 2018: How Big Is the Playing Field?

Democrats need a large one, because beating all the most vulnerable incumbents is unrealistic

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

If Democrats do have a chance to win the House next year, it might be because they translated a currently big field of announced candidates into credible opportunities to flip not just some of the top seats on their list of targets, but also some seats that, on paper, might not seem like they should […]

Center for Politics Reveals Trailer for New John F. Kennedy Documentary

Sabato also calls upon President Trump to allow release of remaining JFK documents later this year

A trailer for the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ forthcoming documentary, This Is The House That Jack Built, is now available. The documentary is the latest collaboration between the Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations, which regularly partner to produce documentary films for public television on American politics and history. This Is The […]

For House Republicans, Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results

What recent midterms tell us about how members of the presidential party fare

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

As they dig their trenches to try to withstand what may (or may not be) a Democratic wave, Republicans may take heart in the performance of their current incumbents last year as a buffer against a potentially challenging environment next year. Very few of the Republicans’ 241 House victories last year were small. Just 15 […]

The New Dominion: Virginia’s Ever-Changing Electoral Map

Examining presidential elections in the commonwealth from 1968 to 2016

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In 2008 Barack Obama carried Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to win the Old Dominion. Obama’s victory broke a run of 10 consecutive Republican victories in the commonwealth, and 13 of 14 going back to 1952. The 2008 presidential election started a new Democratic streak, […]

Generic Ballot Model Gives Democrats Early Advantage in Battle for Control of House

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Results of recent special elections have fueled speculation about whether Democrats have a realistic chance to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections. Although Republican candidates have won recent special elections for seats vacated by President Donald Trump’s Cabinet appointees in Georgia, Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina, the GOP […]