Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for June, 2017

Working-Class Republicanism

A new book reassesses Reagan & prompts Trump comparisons

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball is taking a break for the July 4 holiday next week. So we will not publish on Thursday, June 29. We’ll be back on Thursday, July 6. Have a safe and pleasant holiday. — The Editors A new book tells the story of a president who made his name as […]

2006 Shows Why Democratic Loss in Ga-6 Stings

, Guest Columnist

Editor’s Note: As we telegraphed last week, we are moving GA-6 from Toss-up to Leans Republican and installing Rep.-elect Karen Handel (R) as a favorite for the 2018 midterm after her victory over former congressional aide Jon Ossoff (D). Additionally, we are moving SC-5 to Safe Republican after Rep.-elect Ralph Norman (R) won, though his […]

Democrats Start With Edge in Virginia Gubernatorial Race

Setting the scene after Northam, Gillespie capture nominations

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

There was one close race and one not-so close race in the gubernatorial primaries in Virginia on Tuesday, but the margins were the opposite of what most expected: Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) beat former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello (D) by about a dozen points in the closely-watched Democratic primary. Meanwhile, 2014 Senate nominee and […]

The Georgia House Special: Still on the Razor’s Edge

Beware sweeping conclusions from a race that could feature a very close outcome

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

We are not going to make a call in the GA-6 special election. Such elections are notoriously hard to poll and prone to unpredictable results. Besides, events of recent days (the British parliamentary elections, where the Conservatives did worse than many expected, as well as the Virginia gubernatorial primaries, which defied most polls) and months […]

A Democratic Donnybrook in the Old Dominion?

Previewing the Virginia primary

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With the Virginia primary less than a week away, the eyes of the political world are now focused on the Old Dominion. Considering the early polling in New Jersey’s gubernatorial general election contest, where Phil Murphy (D) starts as the favorite over Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) after both won their respective party nominations on […]

Just How Many Obama 2012-Trump 2016 Voters Were There?

Using different surveys to try to answer an oft-asked question

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In the immediate aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many observers understandably focused on the numerous places that swung from Barack Obama to Donald Trump. Because many of these areas congregated in swing states within the Rust Belt and Midwest, they played a pivotal role in Trump’s victory, as shown by the movement toward the […]