Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for May, 2017

What to Make of Montana?

Sifting through a bizarre race for 2018 clues

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Great Depression-era Montana: A State Guide Book, produced as part of the federal government’s American Guide Series, notes that the state’s history “is alive with action and color.” That doubles as a great description of the state’s special at-large congressional election, particularly its outrageous final hours, during which Rep.-elect Greg Gianforte (R, MT-AL) attacked […]

Center for Politics Poll Finds Public Ranks Kennedy Highest Among Recent Presidents

Survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos coincides with upcoming Kennedy centennial 

As the nation marks the 100th anniversary of President John F. Kennedy’s birth on Memorial Day, a University of Virginia Center for Politics-Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that Americans rate JFK more highly than other recent presidents. The online poll of American adults found that of the presidents who served from 1950-2000 (Dwight Eisenhower through Bill Clinton), […]

Stepping Up: How Governors Who Have Succeeded to the Top Job Have Performed Over the Years

2018 could see a number of successor governors running for full terms in office

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Monday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) moved to end debate on the nomination of Gov. Terry Branstad (R-IA) as the next U.S. ambassador to China. While the exact timeline is uncertain — Democrats could try to stall the appointment — Branstad’s confirmation for the diplomatic post is expected very soon. Upon becoming ambassador, […]

Ratings Changes and Some “Special” Updates

Tweaks to Senate, gubernatorial, and House races

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

As the White House lurches from one self-inflicted crisis to the next — “chaos is the new normal,” as the Columbia Journalism Review put it in a Tuesday morning headline — Senate Republicans have to be worried that President Donald Trump’s difficulties will imperil their opportunity to make gains next year despite a very favorable […]

House 2018: Health Care Vote Gives Democrats Another Midterm Argument

Close to 20 ratings changes reflect potential for House to flip

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Democrats are hopeful that Republicans’ vote last week to pass the American Health Care Act provides them an argument to use in next year’s election. Only 20 House Republicans voted against the bill, which is not polling well and which Democrats are angling to use as a cudgel against the GOP. The AHCA’s passage in […]

Taking Trump’s Temperature Amongst His Supporters (and Opponents), Part 2

Going in depth through our focus groups

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Last week, we released the results of a national poll of voters who said they supported President Donald Trump in the 2016 election, as well as focus groups of mostly Trump voters (but also some voters who either supported Hillary Clinton or voted third party last year). We found that nearly all the Trump voters […]