Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for April, 2017

Center for Politics Poll Takes Temperature of Trump Voters at 100-Day Mark

Voters who supported President Donald Trump in last year’s election have few regrets as Trump enters his 100th day in office this weekend, although his support is not uniformly firm. A new University of Virginia Center for Politics poll of Trump voters shows his approval rating at 93% with these voters, though just 42% “strongly […]

Initial 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings

Competitive races abound as GOP plays defense in many open seats

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Those looking for electoral drama in the 2018 cycle should pay attention to the 38 gubernatorial races being held this year and next. In our initial ratings of these contests, more than half of them — 20 of 38 — start in the competitive Toss-up or Leans Republican/Democratic categories. That includes a whopping 10 Toss-ups: […]

Overtime in Georgia

GA-6 special election provides silver linings for both parties

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Note: This piece has been updated to reflect the final results in GA-6 as of Wednesday morning, April 19. The first round jungle primary in the nationally-watched special election in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District offered something for both parties. Republicans are pleased that they forced a runoff, and Karen Handel (R), the former Georgia secretary […]

Special Circumstances

Georgia’s Sixth District and the dangers of overinterpreting special elections

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Whatever happens in the first round of voting in the special election in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District on Tuesday, it seems like a safe bet that the result will get a fair amount of national attention because of what it may tell us about the 2018 midterm. But before getting into what those lessons may […]

Excerpt From Our New Book, Trumped: Polling in the 2016 Election and What It Means Going Forward

Examining the implications for public opinion surveys beyond the horse race

  Dear Readers: Our new book on 2016’s remarkable election, Trumped, is now available. Trumped features some of the nation’s sharpest political reporters and analysts breaking down an election that truly broke all the rules. The following is taken from Chapter 10 of the book, authored by Ariel Edwards-Levy and Natalie Jackson of Huffington Post, […]