Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for February, 2017

2018 Governors: The Battle Lines for Drawing the Lines

Republicans retain a big redistricting advantage as 2020 census looms, but Democrats have opportunities to chip away at that power

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Given the Democrats’ poor down-ballot performances in the Obama years, and the Republican dominance of redistricting following the GOP’s success in the 2010 midterm, it’s somewhat fitting that arguably the Democrats’ most marquee victory in 2016 will not help them in the redistricting battles to come after the 2020 census. Despite losing the presidency and […]

Can Democrats Take Back the House in 2018?

2006 cycle suggests they could if they can expand the playing field

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Democrats would appear to face long odds in the 2018 U.S. House elections. They need to pick up 24 seats to take back control of the House, and there are only 23 Republicans who hold districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016. In this politically-polarized era, presidential election results strongly predict House election results, and […]

2018’s Initial Senate Ratings

Democrats start on defense but national environment will be key

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

At first blush, one might think that the Democrats have a decent chance of taking control of the Senate in the 2018 midterm. After all, midterms frequently break against the president’s party, which has lost an average of four seats in the 26 midterms conducted in the era of popular Senate elections (starting with the […]

House 2018: Crossover Appeal

Assessing the districts where voters split their tickets, and also the Democrats’ odds of winning back the lower chamber

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It’s become far less common in recent years for voters to vote for one party for president and another for their local U.S. House seat. While the number of “crossover” districts did go up from 2012 — there are 35 of them, as opposed to 26 after the 2012 election — the percentage of crossover […]

2018 House: The Ground Moving Under Their Feet

Where the presidential vote changed the most in 2016 and what it might mean for 2018

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Election years are separate but also connected. Assuming he is confirmed by the Senate to be the next secretary of Health and Human Services, Rep. Tom Price (R, GA-6) will be vacating his suburban Atlanta seat sometime soon. He would be replaced by the winner of a special election, which could be held as soon […]