Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for December, 2016

Incumbent Reelection Rates Higher Than Average in 2016

, UVA Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball will be away for the next two weeks. We’ll be back on Thursday, Jan. 5. We wish you and your family Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. — The Editors With Republican Sen.-elect John Kennedy’s triumph in the Louisiana runoff last weekend, victories by two other Republicans in Louisiana House races, and Gov. […]

Partisan Geographic Sorting

Where you live can change your partisan preferences

, Guest Columnist

Speaking at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, Barack Obama, then a candidate for the U.S. Senate, famously declared that “there’s not a liberal America and a conservative America; there’s the United States of America.” Obama then went on to decry political pundits who “like to slice and dice our country into red states and blue […]

2018 Senate: The Democrats Are Very Exposed

But potentially counteracting forces -- partisan polarization & the negative midterm effect on the president’s party -- complicate the midterm picture

, UVA Center for Politics

A potential silver lining for Democrats is that they head into the 2018 midterm as the party that does not hold the White House, and the “out” party typically makes gains down the ballot in midterms. But it will be difficult for Democrats to make Senate gains in 2018: Despite being in the minority, they […]

The States That Vote Most Often for Presidents

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Ohio has retained its title as the state that has most often voted with the presidential winner over the last 120 years, even though it took a strong turn toward the Republicans this year. The Buckeye State voted for the winner for the 29th time in 31 elections this year, the best record of any […]