Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for August, 2016

Generic Ballot Forecasting Model: Democrats Could Take Back Senate but Republicans Likely to Hold House With Reduced Majority

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Since the conclusion of the Republican and Democratic national conventions last month, pundits, political reporters, and ordinary Americans have, for understandable reasons, been preoccupied with developments in the presidential campaign. And the contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump has certainly provided plenty of material for serious political observers as well as late night comics. […]

The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections, Part 3

Dear Readers: This is the latest in a series of political science forecasts for the 2016 races for the White House and Congress. We’ll be featuring forecasts from nine different individuals and/or teams this year, which James E. Campbell is assembling as part of a project for PS: Political Science and Politics that we are […]

How to Tell if 2016 Is a Wave Election

, Guest Columnist

With Hillary Clinton taking a large lead in the polls following the Democratic National Convention, journalists have begun to discuss the extent to which Democrats may be able to capitalize on these gains in down ballot races for the House and Senate. As has been the case in every recent election cycle, some journalists have […]

Clinton Rises to 348 Electoral Votes, Trump Drops to 190

Clinton now above 270 Safe or Likely Democratic electoral votes for the first time

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

New Hampshire may just have four electoral votes, but it’s important. If you doubt it, just ask any Granite State citizens, and they’ll tell you about their first-in-the-nation primary. Even that quartet of electoral votes can matter; in 2000, if Al Gore had just won them (and without Ralph Nader on the ballot, he probably […]

The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections, Part 2

Dear Readers: This is the latest in a series of political science forecasts for the 2016 races for the White House and Congress. We’ll be featuring forecasts from nine different individuals and/or teams this year, which James E. Campbell is assembling as part of a project for PS: Political Science and Politics that we are […]

The 35th Senate Seat on the Ballot: Virginia

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Everyone is rightly focused on the 34 Senate seats already on the ballot this fall. But there is actually a 35th, the Class I Senate seat currently held by Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine. Of the four major-party candidates for national office, only one contender holds a position whose term will not be finished […]

Forecasting the 2016 Presidential Election: Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump?

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear readers: We’re pleased this week to continue our series on the political science forecasts of the presidential election with a piece from Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz on his Time for Change model. Interestingly, the model shows Donald Trump as a small favorite in the presidential election. As you’ll read, Abramowitz throws some […]

The Electoral College: Pennsylvania Moves Toward Clinton

Key to Trump's chances, the Keystone State looks less promising for him

, Managing Editor, UVA Center for Politics

While there is some suggestion that Pennsylvania might be slowly trending Republican, and while it has a lot of the white, working-class voters that Donald Trump is targeting, recent polling has suggested that Hillary Clinton is obviously the favorite there right now. She leads Trump by close to seven-to-nine points in Keystone State polling averages, […]

House Update: Handful of Races Move Toward Democrats

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In a recent meeting, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R, WI-1) warned donors that the GOP’s House majority might not be safe. Now, politicians don’t like to project overconfidence — just check your email for campaign fundraising pitches with subject lines like “the sky is falling” — but Ryan, who romped to victory in his primary […]

Goldwater and Trump: Not Two Peas in a Pod

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Have you noticed all the comparisons on TV and in print between the Barry Goldwater campaign of 1964 and the Donald Trump campaign of 2016? It’s true both Goldwater was, and Trump is, the Republican nominee for president. And both could be fairly termed insurgent winners and highly controversial candidates. Yet the similarities are being […]

Hanging Tough

Why we've made only minor changes to our Electoral College ratings since March

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

On March 31, we released our first general election map of the Electoral College. With our self-imposed rule of permitting no cop-out “toss-ups” — a rule we’ll try to hold to as we handicap this year’s Electoral College map — our bottom-line totals were 347 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 191 for Donald Trump. […]

The Convention Aftermath: Clinton Bounces Higher Than Trump

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

How big did Hillary Clinton bounce in the polls after the Democratic National Convention? Based on the available data as of Wednesday afternoon, the Democratic nominee soared higher than Donald Trump did. At the end of the GOP convention, we laid out how we would look at the bounce — we used the median poll […]