Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for June, 2016

The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections

Part one of an ongoing series

, Guest Columnist

Dear Readers: This is the first of a multi-part series on the political science forecasts of the 2016 races for the White House and Congress. We’ll be featuring forecasts from nine different individuals and/or groups this year, which James E. Campbell is assembling as part of a project for PS: Political Science and Politics that […]

State Polls Show Strong Consistency Between 2012 and 2016

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Contrary to claims made by some commentators recently, there is little evidence, except for one state, that there are big shifts taking place across the electoral playing field in the race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. This is based on comparing the 2012 results with the 32 states with 2016 presidential polls conducted since […]

Donald Trump, Partisan Polarization, and the 2016 Presidential Election

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Recent presidential elections in the United States have been characterized by sharp divisions between Democrats and Republicans on a wide range of issues along with high levels of party loyalty and straight-ticket voting. Voting patterns in these elections have been very stable — the same voter groups and the same geographic areas have consistently supported […]

The Electoral College: Map No. 2

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Some of our readers may recall that the Crystal Ball published its first 2016 Electoral College map at the end of March. It was somewhat controversial — at least judging by many of the reactions we received. As you see below, at that time we projected Hillary Clinton at 347 electoral votes and Donald Trump […]

A Tale of Two Elections: Clinton’s 2016 Primary Performance Versus 2008

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s note: This is the first of two editions of the Crystal Ball this week. While we typically only publish once a week, this is an extraordinary political year and we hope to provide additional commentary and analysis throughout the rest of the cycle as warranted. Today’s piece kicks off “Map Week” for the Crystal […]

As Deadline Approaches, Rubio Ponders

But his re-entry would not dramatically change the Senate calculus

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The horrifying massacre at a gay nightclub in Orlando forces us to ponder whether it will somehow change the national electoral calculus. The short answer is that it’s too soon to tell, but the grim reality is that the frequency of mass murder in the United States — committed by ISIS-inspired lone wolves or others […]

House 2016: The Balancing Act

How expectations of a Clinton victory could hinder Democrats down-ballot

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

While Hillary Clinton still leads Donald Trump in most national polling, her margin is not what it once was: She’s up about five points in the HuffPost Pollster average, down from nine points in mid-April, and she’s up just two points in the RealClearPolitics average, also down from nine points seven weeks ago. Now that […]

President 2016: The Lazy, Hazy, Crazy Days of Summer Politics

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

As we find ourselves at the end of the primary season, we can all look back in wonder: What hath the voters wrought? Last summer when he announced a candidacy, almost no political professional picked Donald Trump to be the GOP nominee — yet here he is. And no one we know thought that the […]

Model Points to Close California Result Between Clinton and Sanders

But Sanders is very unlikely to get the big margins he needs on June 7

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On June 7, five states — California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota — will hold primary elections. It is the last major day of primaries of 2016, and with the Republican race already decided, almost all of the attention will be focused on the Democratic side, where 676 pledged (elected) delegates will […]

Growing Urban-Rural Split Provides Republicans With Down-Ballot Advantages

, Guest Columnist

The 2012 election provided two powerful reminders about the electoral implications of overly-concentrated Democratic voters. First, the Republicans held their U.S. House majority, won in 2010, despite the fact that the Democratic candidates in the 435 House districts received more votes than their Republican opponents. Second, these House results were echoed by Democrat Barack Obama’s […]