Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for April, 2016

Indiana: #Nevertrump’s Last Stand?

Cruz hopes for Wisconsin repeat in a state that’s more open to voting Trump

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

One could not be blamed for looking at the Republican primary results over the past 10 days and questioning how someone could stop Donald Trump from being the Republican nominee. But a look at the delegate math suggests that the race is not over yet. As we laid out after New York, the roadmap to […]

House 2016: Incumbency Still Powerful in Primaries

Plus, half a dozen general election rating changes

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Tuesday night, scandal-drenched Rep. Chaka Fattah (D, PA-2) became the first House incumbent to lose a primary this year. History suggests a few others will join him, but only a few. Since the end of World War II, there has never been a year where every single House member who sought another term won […]

Democratic Forecast Model Beats the Polls

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Late last week, the Crystal Ball published a simple forecasting model that I created to try to predict the results of the Democratic primary. The model is based on three predictors — region (South versus North), African-American percentage of primary voters in 2008, and Democratic percentage of primary voters in 2008 — and it outperformed […]

Model Shows Clinton as Favorite in Most of Tuesday’s Primaries

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Based on a slightly revised version of a model I created in advance of the March 15 Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton appears to be a solid favorite in Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, as well as a marginal favorite in Connecticut. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders appears to be a favorite in Rhode Island. This model uses three […]

Primaries Versus Caucuses: The Score So Far in 2016

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Unfair! Rigged! Corrupt! We’re hearing a lot of harsh adjectives being applied to aspects of the presidential nominating system this year — from “double-agent” delegate placement on the Republican side that may frustrate the plurality of GOP voters, to the establishment-based superdelegates (fully 15% of the convention, though down from 19% in 2008) on the […]

How Trump Could Win the Republican Nomination in Five (Not-So) Easy Steps

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Let’s get the easy part out of the way first. Bernie Sanders went into the New York Democratic primary with essentially no path to catching Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, and he leaves it with even less of one after Clinton’s victory. Despite some national polls showing the race effectively […]

House 2016: How a Democratic Wave Could Happen

More than a dozen rating changes, almost all favoring Democrats

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Pennsylvania’s Seventh Congressional District, which forms a misshapen U linking Greater Philadelphia in the east to the outskirts of Lancaster and Reading to its west and north, provides a vivid example of the challenges Democrats face on the current U.S. House map. It is a district that Democrats won in 2006 in their wave year, […]

Higher Voter Turnout Alone Is Unlikely to Change the Outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

“Today, roughly half of born-again Christians aren’t voting. They’re staying home. Imagine instead millions of people of faith all across America coming out to the polls and voting our values.” — Ted Cruz in his presidential campaign announcement speech at Liberty University on March 23, 2015. “One of the real advantages, I think, of me winning […]

Senate/Governor 2016: Several Ratings Move Toward Democrats

Will 2016’s presidential coattails be long or short?

When you look at the big picture of presidential elections, and you try to discern the connection between the White House contest and the 34 Senate elections on the same ballot, it becomes obvious there are two types of years. The first type we might call “disjointed.” Voters seem to be separating their judgments about […]

On (From) Wisconsin

Badger State voters opt to prolong both parties’ nominating contests

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Wisconsin’s state motto is “Forward.” On Tuesday night, the Badger State’s voters uttered it as a command to both parties’ nominating contests. Instead of voting to bring the nominating season closer to a conclusion by backing Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, the two current leaders, Wisconsin strongly supported Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz, voting to […]