February 25th, 2016
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This is the second part of a two-part series analyzing the flood of primaries and in both parties from now through March 15. Last week we looked at the Republicans, and this week we look at the Democrats. Unlike the Republicans, who give states some leeway to come up with their own rules for allocating […]
February 25th, 2016
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In November 2016, Virginia will easily be one of the most-watched states in the general election contest. The Old Dominion’s 2008 and 2012 presidential vote most closely matched the national popular vote, and it has become a pivotal swing state in a polarized country that doesn’t have many of them. However, some might not attach […]
February 20th, 2016
If you had told us when Donald Trump entered the race that he would take second place in Iowa, win New Hampshire easily, and then triumph in South Carolina, you’d have needed smelling salts to revive us. But he’s done it, and no one else has really been able to shake the intense hold he […]
February 20th, 2016
After very narrowly winning Iowa and losing New Hampshire in a blowout, Hillary Clinton has moved on to her “firewall” — the more diverse states that come after the lily-white leadoff contests. Clinton’s wall held in its first test in Nevada, but her modest margin of victory isn’t going to scare Bernie Sanders into surrendering. […]
February 19th, 2016
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The American presidential nomination process gives enormous influence to two small and, in many ways, highly unrepresentative states: Iowa and New Hampshire. Not only are Iowa and New Hampshire sparsely populated states without any major metropolitan areas — Des Moines is the 89th largest metro area in the U.S. and Manchester is the 131st largest […]
February 18th, 2016
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After months and months of endless fascination with Iowa and New Hampshire, the bulk of the primary season will be contested over just the course of a single month. Between Feb. 20 and March 5, a whopping 37 states and territories will hold at least one party’s nominating contest, many both. In order to prepare […]
February 11th, 2016
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The objective of any presidential campaign seeking the nomination of one of the two major parties is pretty simple: In some way, shape, or form, all the candidates want to win. All other things held equal, those candidates would also like to keep winning, from Iowa to New Hampshire to South Carolina and on and […]
February 11th, 2016
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We are making 17 changes to our U.S. House ratings this week. On the surface, all that movement suggests that there is a lot going on in the battle for the House. Actually, though, the overall House picture remains largely where it has been for months: on hold until the presidential race gets sorted out. […]
February 10th, 2016
Six months ago, Donald Trump as New Hampshire primary winner was almost unimaginable. Yet here we are: He triumphed, and it wasn’t even close. So much for the Iowa narrative, which held that Trump had no ground game and would always fall short of his predicted margin in polls. Not only did Trump sweep — […]
February 10th, 2016
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That Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire was not a surprise. That he won by so much is. It’s a tremendous shot in the arm for his campaign and a jarring setback for Hillary Clinton. Keep this in mind: While we and many others have been suggesting for months that Clinton could lose New Hampshire and […]
February 8th, 2016
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Last week, we wrote that Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are the favorites to win New Hampshire, and while there have been plenty of fireworks between then and now (Monday afternoon), our overall assessment hasn’t changed. Polling in the New Hampshire primary is often far off the mark — the electorate has a remarkably high […]
February 4th, 2016
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New Hampshire, as usual, will not be inclined to ratify the result of its early-state rival, Iowa. In open seat races, it’s natural for New Hampshire to zag after Iowa zigs: In the modern era of presidential nominations starting in 1972, there have been 16 contested presidential primaries (seven for the Republicans, nine for the […]
February 4th, 2016
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Most political observers consider 1972 the beginning of the “modern era” of presidential politics. After the controversial 1968 presidential cycle, the Democrats began to reform their nomination process to make it more inclusive and transparent, and to make its results more representative of the will of the party as a whole, not just the party […]
February 2nd, 2016
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Iowa is in the books, and we already have our first surprise: Ted Cruz confounded late polls showing him sliding and Donald Trump rising. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders battled to a near-tie. Last week, we asked five questions about what the Iowa results might tell us. What did we learn? 1. How real […]
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