Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for November, 2015

Republicans 2016: A Contracting List of True Contenders

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Crystal Ball is taking next week off and will return on Thursday, Dec. 3. We wish our readers a very happy, safe and, most important, filling Thanksgiving. — The Editors The atrocities in Paris over the weekend show that events can and will inject new issues into the presidential contest or intensify ones that […]

Democrats 2016: Clinton’s Cloak of Inevitability

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

Every Republican debate appears consequential because of the large number of candidates, the changing cast of characters on stage, and the clashes among controversial colorful contenders on hot-button topics. The same cannot be said on the Democratic side. There just isn’t much drama left in the Democrats’ search for a nominee. While Hillary Clinton was […]

The Baffling Bayou

Edwards has a strong polling lead, but will it hold up?

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Based purely on poll numbers, the Louisiana gubernatorial race should be easy to call. State Rep. John Bel Edwards (D) leads Sen. David Vitter (R) by 11 percentage points in the current HuffPost Pollster average, a seemingly insurmountable lead with the runoff contest taking place just two days from now on Saturday. But these days […]

Watch Live: Center for Politics Hosts American Democracy Conference

The University of Virginia Center for Politics has assembled some of the nation’s leading campaign strategists, pollsters, reporters, and analysts to break down next year’s presidential primary and general election campaigns. The 17th annual American Democracy Conference kicks off today in Washington, DC at 10:15 a.m. with a discussion of the Democratic presidential primary contest. […]

University of Virginia Center for Politics to Host 17th Annual American Democracy Conference in Washington

On Thursday, Nov. 19, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host the 17th annual American Democracy Conference in Washington, DC. The conference will feature leading journalists and political experts discussing the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries as well as the overall political outlook for 2016. The conference will be held at the Ronald […]

Republicans 2016: White Evangelicals Dominate the Early Calendar

But then become less prominent later in the race

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Based on the election calendar, white evangelical Christians are going to receive ample attention early in the 2016 Republican primary. Using exit poll data from the 2012 and 2008 GOP primaries, as well as data from the Census Bureau and the Public Religion Research Institute’s American Values Atlas to help estimate numbers for states with […]

Ratings Change: Louisiana Gubernatorial Race Now a Toss-Up

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After Gov.-elect Matt Bevin’s (R) strong victory in Kentucky last week — a nine-point win that surprised almost all political observers, including us — we’re again confronted with a difficult-to-handicap red state gubernatorial race, this time in Louisiana. There, Sen. David Vitter (R) appears to be trailing state Rep. John Bel Edwards (D) despite the […]

1968: Ball of Confusion

A year of chaos that makes today’s political battles seem tame by comparison

, Director, UVA Center for Politics

The UVA Center for Politics’ latest documentary, Ball of Confusion, has begun airing on PBS stations across the nation this week. Check your local listings to see when it’s playing in your area, and click on the image below to watch the trailer. The documentary recounts the three-way presidential contest among Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, […]