Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for September, 2015

Republicans 2016: Two down, 14 to go

Making sense of a (slowly) shrinking GOP field

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Whatever else it is, the Republican presidential contest has become a full employment act for reporters and analysts. With the largest (though gradually shrinking) field of any major party in U.S. history and a Republican electorate that appears mad as hell and isn’t going to take it anymore, the GOP caravan is careening down the […]

The Fall of Scott Walker

How the man who could have been both outsider and insider became neither

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

News broke Monday afternoon that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is dropping out of the Republican presidential race. Walker’s star had clearly been fading — a recent CNN national poll showed practically nonexistent national support. Walker is someone we identified early as a major presidential contender, and for a while, he appeared to be just that. […]


, U.Va. Center for Politics

With a Wednesday night debate, we would have been remiss to send you a Crystal Ball on Thursday morning without a reaction. Here are some quick thoughts from the three of us on what we’re calling “The Reagan Rumble.” We’ll have a lot more to say on the state of the GOP race next week. […]

No Drama Obama

The president’s approval rating has been the steadiest in modern history

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

President Obama’s middling job approval rating has been quite steady over the last few months, devoid of much movement outside of the relatively subtle shifts seen from poll to poll. This is nothing new: Based on Gallup’s polling, Barack Obama’s approval rating has the smallest standard deviation of any modern president. That is, Americans’ view […]

Ratings Changes: A Senate Sleeper in Kentucky?

Plus, Democrats get some improved odds in a handful of House races

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The prospect of Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) winning the Republican presidential nomination seems as remote as ever. But that doesn’t mean Senate Republicans can just assume the seat will stay safely in their column next year. The Senate situation in the Bluegrass State highlights six Crystal Ball race ratings changes, which are shown in Table […]

Early Thoughts on 2016’s Presidential and Down-Ballot Races

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is a regular contributor to Politico Magazine, and this week he and the Crystal Ball team offer snippets and links to a two-part series that takes an early look at the 2016 presidential and down-ballot pictures. The first article, which appeared in Politico Magazine on Sept. 7, […]

The Real Presidential Deadlines

Late-entering candidates must consider fast-approaching filing dates

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The presidential fields on both sides are so much in flux that rumors of new candidates entering the race continue. For the Democrats, the whispers about Vice President Joe Biden making a late charge into the fray have become roars. Biden made a campaign-style appearance at a Labor Day rally in Pittsburgh and otherwise seems […]

Donald Trump: History Has Not Been Kind to Businessmen-Turned-Presidents

, Guest Columnist

The many factors behind Donald Trump’s surge to the top of Republican polls are hardly new. There is broad dissatisfaction and distrust of “professional politicians” and with what is widely perceived to be an incompetent Washington that is in the pocket of wealthy and narrow-minded corporate interests. Individually, there is economic insecurity, and collectively a […]

The Populist Revolt against Brain-Dead Politics

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Take a deep breath. It won’t help you understand what’s happening in the contest for the presidency, but it won’t hurt either. By contrast, many media analyses of the state of the race have reached the breathless level. Supposedly, there’s never been anyone like Donald Trump on the political scene. In fact, there’s a long […]