Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for August, 2015

Democrats 2016: The Primary Map Still Favors Clinton

Despite myriad problems, demography and geography are possibly the Democratic frontrunner’s best friends

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been under siege for months as additional revelations and developments regarding her use of a private email account continue to drip out. Last week, the Crystal Ball explored what might happen should Clinton drop out of the Democratic primary or, as the rumors swirl about the possibility, if […]

Notes on the State of Politics

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

How the North Dakota gubernatorial race could decide the Senate The decision by Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R-ND) to not run for another term potentially puts a 2016 gubernatorial race in play for Democrats. But winning it might involve a trade-off that most Democrats wouldn’t make: the governorship of one of the nation’s least populous states […]

Democrats 2016: Biden His Time

If there’s a Clinton crash, the vice president might not be the only one who exploits it

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It’s time to ask a question, the answer to which we do not know: Will former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s private email server scandal do fatal damage to her campaign? Over the past few months it’s become clearer that the questions surrounding Clinton’s emails — and a corresponding flood of negative press that she […]

Republicans 2016: What to Do With the Donald?

Handicapping a frontrunner who (almost certainly) cannot win

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Whatever you think of him, Donald Trump is a stick of dynamite thrown into the presidential pond. All the boats have been rocked, and given Trump’s potential for more explosiveness, the political waters show little sign of settling down anytime soon. Donald Trump is so special that we’ve created a category (and perhaps a word) […]

The Angry American Voter

, Emory University

As Republicans take the stage in Cleveland for their first presidential primary debate tonight — with Donald Trump in the middle of it — one thing is already abundantly clear: A lot of voters are angry. Very angry. In fact, a lot of voters have been angry for some time. The phenomenon that we call […]

Kicking Off the Debate Season

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Welcome to Debate Day! Finally, voters and analysts will get to see one party’s field (or at least, some of it) take the stage to duke it out in primetime. The main GOP debate participant list is set, as is that of the warm-up confab for the seven Republicans who failed to make the top […]