Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for July, 2015

Eight Decades of Debate

A brief history of presidential primary clashes

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Next week begins what has become a regular presidential primary tradition: the debates. As a way of previewing them, we decided to look back at the history of primary debates. Readers may be surprised to learn that primary debates existed before the advent of televised general election debates in 1960. Less surprising is that the […]

A Small Senate Battlefield

Control of upper chamber likely to come down to about a quarter of 2016’s races

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Since we last took a comprehensive look at the 2016 Senate races, a slew of new candidates have jumped in, some promising contenders have dropped out, and intraparty competition has intensified. Sounds dramatic. Yet what most strikes us is the overall stability, thus far at least, of the Senate picture. First, Democrats have a plausible […]

The Debates and the Bushes

Recent articles in Politico Magazine look at two aspects of the 2016 Republican presidential race

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is a regular contributor to Politico Magazine, and this week we offer a snippet and link to his two most recent pieces for the publication. The first article, which appeared in Politico Magazine on July 16, 2015, offers a more inclusive Republican debate format compared to the […]

Is Donald Trump the New Ross Perot? Or the Next Pat Buchanan?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

We all know what Donald Trump is saying and the issues he’s emphasizing. Many have noted the strong reactions of the media, pundits, and his business associates, some of whom have cut ties. Now the most recent surveys show Trump in the double digits among Republicans nationally. Two new polls have even found Trump ahead […]

My Old Kentucky Home: Could Matt Bevin’s Soon Be the Governor’s Mansion?

Breaking down 2015’s marquee race & this cycle’s other gubernatorial contests

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

These days, the Bluegrass State is looking a lot less blue at the federal level. In the last four presidential elections, the Democratic candidate only averaged 40.6% of the two-party vote, the party’s 10th-worst state in that time period. Four-term Sen. Wendell Ford (D) was the last Democrat to win a Senate race in Kentucky […]

Democrats 2016: Not Feeling the Bern

Despite big crowds, Sanders remains a huge underdog to Clinton

, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Buzz about Bernie has taken hold on the Democratic side of the 2016 campaign, and it’s easy to see why. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is drawing huge crowds and great poll numbers in the first two states to vote, Iowa and New Hampshire. It isn’t just that he’s speaking his mind, saying exactly what […]