Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for June, 2015

The Democrats’ Mythical Third Term Obstacle

, Guest Columnist

Dear Readers: We have long suggested that one factor in the GOP’s favor in the 2016 presidential sweepstakes is a party’s difficulty in winning a third consecutive White House term. But there is another way to look at the subject that does not make the third-term hurdle seem so daunting, as Crystal Ball friend Prof. […]

President 2016: The Clash of Dynasties

Assessing where Clinton & Bush stand after their big speeches

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear Readers: We made a couple of much-needed improvements to our Crystal Ball website over the past week that we wanted to make sure you knew about. The first, which you’ll see at the top of online posts, are buttons to easily share Crystal Ball stories on social media sites like Facebook and Twitter. The […]

Virginia’s Redistricting History: What’s Past Is Prologue

Previous conflicts still resonate in today's clash over congressional boundaries

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Earlier this month the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia found Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District to be a racial gerrymander, therefore deeming the state’s congressional map unconstitutional. The attorney for the Virginia Republican congressional delegation said an appeal of this latest ruling to the Supreme Court is likely, as did Rep. Bob […]

Ohio, New Mexico the Best Presidential Bellwethers

How all the states stack up over the past 30 elections

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Buckeye State, long recognized as perhaps the nation’s premier presidential swing state, deserves its status. In the 30 presidential elections since 1896, Ohio has correctly picked the winner 28 times. Ohio has company at the top though — it beats out another top presidential swing state, New Mexico, by only a hair. Like Ohio, […]

Mapping the Crystal Ball’s House Ratings

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Our friends over at Daily Kos Elections, a left-leaning site that produces reams of useful, nonpartisan political analysis and resources, just rolled out perhaps the best map of House districts we’ve seen. Visualizing our House ratings is challenging because of the wide disparity between district sizes. The smallest congressional district, that of retiring Rep. Charlie […]

The Myths of 2016

What everyone gets wrong about the election

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he and the rest of the Crystal Ball team take on the role of mythbusters, debunking some early conventional wisdom about the 2016 presidential contest. — The Editors We still have well over 500 days to the […]

The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is the Other Party

How negative partisanship is dividing Americans and shaping the outlook for the 2016 election

, Emory University

Which candidate will emerge from the crowded Republican presidential field next year? Can anyone stop or at least slow down Hillary Clinton’s seemingly inevitable march to the Democratic nomination? Will Democrats be able to match the GOP in Super PAC spending? And will there be new revelations about Clinton’s e-mails or the Clinton Foundation’s fundraising […]

Gerrymandering the House, 1972-2014

, Guest Columnist

Redistricting the U.S. House of Representatives is not a unified, national process, unlike most national legislatures. Rather, it’s the result of cumulative actions taken by individual states. Nevertheless, it is useful to look at the entire House to see how the decisions in the states combine to form a fair or an unfair playing field […]